Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.639% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 41.22% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.36% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.701%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.526 | 11.701 |
5.36 [ 2.46 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Oct 1907 |
0.000 Dec 1908 |
1.801 Dec 1910 |
4.932 Jul 1911 |
7.639 Dec 1915 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.269 |
3.752 |
6.400 |
8.867 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
2.190 |
4.563 |
7.120 |
9.800 |
||
|
80% |
1.236 |
3.637 |
5.948 |
8.334 |
10.617 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.460 |
5.536 |
7.590 |
9.620 |
11.709 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.636 Jun 1920 |
11.316 Jun 1920 |
12.995 Jun 1920 |
14.738 Jul 1932 |
17.306 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Sep 1936 |
0.864 Mar 1939 |
3.679 Jun 1939 |
6.258 Feb 1946 |
8.368 Feb 1946 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.939 |
4.431 |
6.883 |
9.475 |
||
|
90% |
0.292 |
2.654 |
5.047 |
7.688 |
10.036 |
||
|
80% |
1.662 |
3.943 |
6.233 |
8.521 |
10.760 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.346 |
5.425 |
7.478 |
9.547 |
11.643 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.575 Apr 1926 |
10.128 Apr 1926 |
12.170 Jul 1932 |
14.738 Jul 1932 |
17.306 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.720 Oct 2012 |
3.268 Oct 2012 |
5.807 Apr 1974 |
7.924 Apr 1974 |
10.042 Apr 1974 |
|
|
95% |
2.306 |
4.588 |
6.823 |
8.943 |
11.098 |
||
|
90% |
2.891 |
4.981 |
7.072 |
9.200 |
11.280 |
||
|
80% |
3.458 |
5.505 |
7.511 |
9.533 |
11.542 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.187 |
6.161 |
8.146 |
10.183 |
12.254 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.506 Jul 1982 |
9.546 Jul 1982 |
11.585 Jul 1982 |
13.624 Jul 1982 |
15.663 Jul 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.53
|
90.64
|
70.41
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.07
|
87.85
|
62.73
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.55
|
86.22
|
55.06
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.09
|
81.28
|
49.24
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.91
|
75.00
|
41.22
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.47
|
65.58
|
34.77
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.83
|
87.33
|
56.98
|
28.66
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.19
|
86.05
|
50.58
|
22.09
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.40
|
79.19
|
41.63
|
15.17
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.95
|
70.00
|
34.83
|
11.51
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.47
|
59.77
|
27.73
|
9.59
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.639% |
0.00 |
87.62
|
51.16
|
20.81
|
6.45
|
| 8.00 % |
98.95
|
1.05 |
84.19
|
42.27
|
14.48
|
3.20
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.45
|
74.56
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.75
|
65.22
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.71
|
55.04
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
85.48
|
47.27
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.13
|
79.37
|
36.73
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.54
|
68.83
|
28.86
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.10
|
57.08
|
23.03
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.34
|
48.84
|
16.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
83.72
|
37.10
|
8.88
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.96
|
73.36
|
29.23
|
5.46
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.36
|
60.87
|
22.39
|
4.35
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.47
|
49.68
|
14.99
|
2.96
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
87.88
|
37.28
|
8.42
|
1.30
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.47
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.18
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.77
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.58
|
78.38
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
57.17
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.05
|
41.37
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.81
|
28.27
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
80.04
|
15.38
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.38
|
57.17
|
4.99
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.09
|
41.37
|
2.29
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.48
|
27.23
|
0.83
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
80.46
|
13.31
|
0.21
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.79
|
56.96
|
4.16
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
