Permanent Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.639% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 41.05% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.99% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.56%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Nov 2014
 31 Oct 2024 2.970 11.560 5.99
[ 3.01 ] 		-16.38
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Oct 1907 		0.000
Dec 1908 		1.801
Dec 1910 		4.932
Jul 1911 		7.639
Dec 1915
95%
 0.000
 1.269
 3.752
 6.400
 8.867
90%
 0.000
 2.205
 4.575
 7.122
 9.821
80%
 1.255
 3.655
 5.955
 8.337
 10.619
50%
Median WR 		3.438
 5.522
 7.570
 9.603
 11.703
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		9.636
Jun 1920 		11.316
Jun 1920 		12.995
Jun 1920 		14.738
Jul 1932 		17.306
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Sep 1936 		0.864
Mar 1939 		3.679
Jun 1939 		6.258
Feb 1946 		8.368
Feb 1946
95%
 0.000
 1.939
 4.431
 6.883
 9.475
90%
 0.292
 2.654
 5.047
 7.688
 10.036
80%
 1.662
 3.943
 6.233
 8.521
 10.760
50%
Median WR 		3.288
 5.390
 7.468
 9.527
 11.618
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.575
Apr 1926 		10.128
Apr 1926 		12.170
Jul 1932 		14.738
Jul 1932 		17.306
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.720
Oct 2012 		3.268
Oct 2012 		5.817
Oct 2012 		8.365
Oct 2012 		10.788
Aug 1987
95%
 2.475
 4.668
 6.876
 9.005
 11.136
90%
 2.891
 4.981
 7.085
 9.230
 11.318
80%
 3.447
 5.499
 7.501
 9.515
 11.559
50%
Median WR 		4.187
 6.161
 8.146
 10.183
 12.248
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		7.506
Jul 1982 		9.546
Jul 1982 		11.585
Jul 1982 		13.624
Jul 1982 		15.663
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.54
90.68
70.53
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.07
87.90
62.71
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.55
86.28
54.89
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.10
81.35
49.04
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.94
75.10
41.05
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.50
65.72
34.63
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.83
87.38
56.86
28.55
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.19
86.10
50.38
22.00
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.41
79.27
41.46
15.11
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
93.98
70.12
34.68
11.46
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
90.50
59.76
27.62
9.55
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.639% 		0.00
87.67
50.96
20.73
6.43
8.00 %
98.96
1.04
84.25
42.10
14.42
3.18
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.45
74.56
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.75
64.94
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
88.71
54.49
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
85.48
46.62
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.13
79.37
36.08
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.54
68.83
28.21
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.10
56.61
22.39
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.34
48.20
15.36
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
83.72
36.45
8.23
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.96
73.36
28.58
4.81
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.36
60.59
21.74
3.70
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
90.47
49.03
14.34
2.41
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
87.88
36.63
7.77
1.11
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.09
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
94.59
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
88.57
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
78.17
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.75
57.17
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.67
41.37
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.81
28.27
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
79.83
15.38
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.58
57.17
4.99
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.71
41.37
2.29
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.89
27.23
0.83
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
80.25
13.31
0.21
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
56.96
4.16
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com