Permanent Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.392% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 36.47% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 20 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.78% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.846%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Nov 2004
 31 Oct 2024 4.351 7.846 6.78
[ 4.13 ] 		-16.38
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Feb 1898 		0.014
Jul 1900 		1.728
Jul 1901 		3.301
Jul 1901 		4.392
Jun 1911
95%
 0.243
 1.429
 2.561
 3.721
 4.779
90%
 0.526
 1.652
 2.812
 3.915
 4.959
80%
 1.444
 2.412
 3.364
 4.347
 5.388
50%
Median WR 		3.312
 4.168
 5.043
 5.994
 6.885
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.277
Jul 1920 		8.942
Jul 1920 		9.608
Jul 1920 		10.274
Jul 1920 		10.956
Jun 1920
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.042
Jul 1933 		1.239
Mar 1937 		2.367
Mar 1937 		3.495
Mar 1937 		4.590
Jan 1940
95%
 0.496
 1.608
 2.713
 3.765
 4.832
90%
 0.906
 1.990
 3.064
 4.142
 5.255
80%
 1.881
 2.904
 3.921
 4.985
 5.959
50%
Median WR 		3.339
 4.168
 5.039
 5.971
 6.785
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		5.993
Jul 1982 		6.864
Jul 1982 		7.735
Jul 1982 		8.606
Jul 1982 		9.478
Jul 1982
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		3.181
Aug 1987 		3.986
Aug 1987 		4.790
Aug 1987 		5.595
Aug 1987 		6.399
Aug 1987
95%
 3.574
 4.377
 5.198
 5.981
 6.761
90%
 3.675
 4.478
 5.278
 6.079
 6.874
80%
 3.829
 4.639
 5.445
 6.266
 7.078
50%
Median WR 		4.339
 5.142
 5.899
 6.662
 7.430
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		5.993
Jul 1982 		6.864
Jul 1982 		7.735
Jul 1982 		8.606
Jul 1982 		9.478
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.19
86.12
73.49
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.08
78.72
64.03
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
86.56
73.80
54.01
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.50
78.53
61.79
46.42
4.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.392% 		0.00
87.93
72.18
53.52
36.47
4.50 %
99.75
95% Succ.
4.779% 		0.25
76.85
60.86
42.81
25.76
5.00 %
89.05
80% Succ.
5.388% 		10.95
72.06
51.09
32.67
15.18
5.50 %
78.72
21.28
59.05
39.76
20.47
10.08
6.00 %
72.00
28.00
49.78
27.75
13.44
7.09
6.50 %
55.57
50% Succ.
6.885% 		44.43
36.28
16.86
8.46
5.60
7.00 %
47.36
52.64
23.21
12.20
6.35
3.67
7.50 %
31.36
68.64
15.00
7.22
4.73
0.87
8.00 %
19.73
80.27
10.08
5.04
1.49
0.31
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.91
77.94
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.96
83.25
65.04
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.84
78.36
54.84
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.90
83.66
64.83
46.20
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
92.30
78.88
54.63
33.40
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590% 		0.00
84.18
63.79
41.31
17.17
5.00 %
92.61
90% Succ.
5.255% 		7.39
79.19
50.78
27.78
4.27
5.50 %
85.74
80% Succ.
5.959% 		14.26
61.08
37.15
9.47
0.73
6.00 %
78.88
21.12
49.01
20.40
3.12
0.00
6.50 %
55.67
50% Succ.
6.785% 		44.33
32.26
6.24
0.42
0.00
7.00 %
45.27
54.73
13.74
2.71
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
25.18
74.82
4.89
0.21
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
9.99
90.01
2.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.12
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
71.47
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
88.37
36.01
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.23
58.17
5.26
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
77.29
16.90
1.39
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.399% 		0.00
93.91
41.00
2.49
0.00
6.50 %
98.34
95% Succ.
6.761% 		1.66
62.88
8.59
1.11
0.00
7.00 %
83.66
80% Succ.
7.078% 		16.34
24.65
1.66
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
43.77
56.23
5.26
0.55
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
14.13
85.87
1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com