Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.094% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 18.67% of cases. In the 11.02% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.31% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.412%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 Nov 1954 |
31 Oct 2024 | 3.125 | 3.412 |
7.31 [ 3.60 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.632 Jul 1901 |
1.793 Jul 1901 |
1.922 Feb 1937 |
2.008 Feb 1937 |
2.094 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
1.809 |
1.938 |
2.052 |
2.165 |
2.272 |
||
90% |
1.868 |
1.988 |
2.116 |
2.245 |
2.370 |
||
80% |
1.975 |
2.102 |
2.231 |
2.353 |
2.481 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.550 |
2.686 |
2.816 |
2.935 |
3.053 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.454 Mar 1871 |
5.535 Mar 1871 |
5.617 Mar 1871 |
5.698 Mar 1871 |
5.780 Mar 1871 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.749 Feb 1937 |
1.835 Feb 1937 |
1.922 Feb 1937 |
2.008 Feb 1937 |
2.094 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
1.838 |
1.928 |
2.016 |
2.105 |
2.194 |
||
90% |
1.889 |
1.979 |
2.067 |
2.158 |
2.237 |
||
80% |
2.015 |
2.106 |
2.187 |
2.282 |
2.370 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.692 |
2.789 |
2.872 |
2.970 |
3.072 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
3.566 Nov 1924 |
3.676 Nov 1924 |
3.787 Nov 1924 |
3.898 Nov 1924 |
4.008 Nov 1924 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.094% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.41
|
88.88
|
77.46
|
2.50 % |
78.25
|
21.75 |
66.34
|
58.19
|
55.41
|
51.54
|
|
3.00 % |
51.74
|
50% Succ. 3.053% |
48.26 |
47.27
|
42.30
|
39.03
|
36.94
|
3.50 % |
30.69
|
69.31 |
29.20
|
25.82
|
22.05
|
18.67
|
|
4.00 % |
18.67
|
81.33 |
14.60
|
12.41
|
11.32
|
11.02
|
|
4.50 % |
10.63
|
89.37 |
10.13
|
9.14
|
8.14
|
7.15
|
|
5.00 % |
6.75
|
93.25 |
5.76
|
4.97
|
3.97
|
3.48
|
|
5.50 % |
2.28
|
97.72 |
1.39
|
0.60
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.094% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.40
|
87.81
|
80.33
|
2.50 % |
69.53
|
30.47 |
66.76
|
60.11
|
57.34
|
54.57
|
|
3.00 % |
52.63
|
50% Succ. 3.072% |
47.37 |
48.75
|
42.11
|
36.84
|
32.41
|
3.50 % |
14.96
|
85.04 |
12.74
|
8.59
|
5.54
|
2.22
|
|
4.00 % |
0.28
|
99.72 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com