Permanent Portfolio: 50-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.354% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 31.13% of cases. In the 11.41% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 50 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.75% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.173%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 Mar 1973
 28 Feb 2023 3.477 4.173 7.75
[ 3.65 ] 		-16.38
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.526
Feb 1936 		1.737
Dec 1936 		1.945
Dec 1936 		2.152
Feb 1937 		2.354
Feb 1937 		2.614
95% Succ. 		2.761
90% Succ. 		2.917
80% Succ. 		3.654
50% Succ.
Median 2.875
 3.068
 3.262
 3.464
 3.654
Average 2.861
 3.085
 3.310
 3.534
 3.759
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.384
Mar 1873 		5.667
Mar 1873 		5.950
Mar 1873 		6.241
Feb 1873 		6.553
Mar 1871
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.526
 1.648
 1.745
 1.929
 2.875
75% 1.737
 1.875
 2.003
 2.171
 3.068
50% 1.945
 2.125
 2.257
 2.431
 3.262
25% 2.152
 2.380
 2.505
 2.685
 3.464
0% 2.354
 2.614
 2.761
 2.917
 3.654
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.526
Feb 1936 		1.737
Dec 1936 		1.945
Dec 1936 		2.152
Feb 1937 		2.354
Feb 1937 		2.474
95% Succ. 		2.604
90% Succ. 		2.848
80% Succ. 		3.746
50% Succ.
Median 2.957
 3.162
 3.348
 3.542
 3.746
Average 2.828
 3.026
 3.225
 3.423
 3.621
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		4.807
Jul 1970 		4.939
Jul 1970 		5.070
Jul 1970 		5.202
Jul 1970 		5.334
Jul 1970
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.526
 1.609
 1.679
 2.048
 2.957
75% 1.737
 1.840
 1.906
 2.246
 3.162
50% 1.945
 2.064
 2.130
 2.447
 3.348
25% 2.152
 2.270
 2.380
 2.648
 3.542
0% 2.354
 2.474
 2.604
 2.848
 3.746
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.354% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
99.19
90.22
76.45
2.50 %
96.98
95% Succ.
2.614% 		3.02
96.98
90.22
75.79
64.06
60.55
3.00 %
74.82
25.18
74.82
63.65
60.39
53.22
44.50
3.50 %
58.68
50% Succ.
3.654% 		41.32
58.68
48.25
38.06
29.34
23.15
4.00 %
31.13
68.87
31.13
26.65
19.97
14.59
11.41
4.50 %
19.80
80.20
19.80
14.02
11.17
8.88
6.36
5.00 %
9.86
90.14
9.86
8.64
6.03
4.07
2.12
5.50 %
6.85
93.15
6.85
4.97
2.85
0.81
0.00
6.00 %
3.42
96.58
3.42
1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.41
99.59
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.354% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
85.69
80.87
2.50 %
93.84
90% Succ.
2.604% 		6.16
93.84
84.03
78.70
72.71
68.55
3.00 %
74.71
25.29
74.71
72.38
69.05
59.73
48.42
3.50 %
68.39
50% Succ.
3.746% 		31.61
68.39
53.58
37.77
22.46
15.31
4.00 %
24.29
75.71
24.29
17.47
11.15
7.32
5.16
4.50 %
11.48
88.52
11.48
5.66
4.16
2.16
1.33
5.00 %
1.50
98.50
1.50
1.00
0.17
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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