Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.39% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.873%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.945 | 5.873 |
6.39 [ 3.78 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.327 Jul 1890 |
1.184 May 1940 |
1.910 May 1940 |
2.637 May 1940 |
3.304 Feb 1937 |
3.538 95% Succ. |
3.703 90% Succ. |
3.926 80% Succ. |
5.006 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.941 |
3.425 |
3.926 |
4.428 |
5.006 | |||||
Average |
3.067 |
3.592 |
4.118 |
4.643 |
5.168 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.927 Apr 1873 |
7.317 Apr 1873 |
7.707 Apr 1873 |
8.097 Apr 1873 |
8.530 Jun 1920 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.327 |
1.014 |
1.202 |
1.701 |
2.941 |
75% |
1.184 |
1.732 |
1.886 |
2.298 |
3.425 |
|
50% |
1.910 |
2.375 |
2.545 |
2.873 |
3.926 |
|
25% |
2.637 |
2.964 |
3.161 |
3.410 |
4.428 |
|
0% |
3.304 |
3.538 |
3.703 |
3.926 |
5.006 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.458 May 1940 |
1.184 May 1940 |
1.910 May 1940 |
2.637 May 1940 |
3.304 Feb 1937 |
3.482 95% Succ. |
3.713 90% Succ. |
4.291 80% Succ. |
5.032 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.086 |
3.533 |
4.014 |
4.509 |
5.032 | |||||
Average |
3.047 |
3.553 |
4.060 |
4.567 |
5.074 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.038 Jul 1982 |
6.403 Jul 1982 |
6.769 Jul 1982 |
7.134 Jul 1982 |
7.499 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.458 |
0.950 |
1.230 |
1.934 |
3.086 |
75% |
1.184 |
1.571 |
1.866 |
2.511 |
3.533 |
|
50% |
1.910 |
2.206 |
2.499 |
3.126 |
4.014 |
|
25% |
2.637 |
2.842 |
3.126 |
3.718 |
4.509 |
|
0% |
3.304 |
3.482 |
3.713 |
4.291 |
5.032 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.32
|
85.57
|
75.97
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.63
|
75.63
|
61.13
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.304% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.28
|
75.83
|
62.29
|
48.26
|
3.50 % |
96.39
|
95% Succ. 3.538% |
3.61 |
96.39
|
76.04
|
63.58
|
47.24
|
37.85
|
4.00 % |
77.33
|
22.67 |
77.33
|
65.35
|
46.70
|
36.96
|
27.03
|
|
4.50 % |
67.26
|
32.74 |
67.26
|
48.40
|
37.03
|
28.32
|
14.70
|
|
5.00 % |
50.17
|
50% Succ. 5.006% |
49.83 |
50.17
|
36.69
|
28.25
|
13.61
|
8.78
|
5.50 % |
36.69
|
63.31 |
36.69
|
27.09
|
12.93
|
8.51
|
6.26
|
|
6.00 % |
25.66
|
74.34 |
25.66
|
12.87
|
7.96
|
6.19
|
4.08
|
|
6.50 % |
13.89
|
86.11 |
13.89
|
7.83
|
6.06
|
3.68
|
1.91
|
|
7.00 % |
7.90
|
92.10 |
7.90
|
5.85
|
3.27
|
1.16
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
5.58
|
94.42 |
5.58
|
3.06
|
0.68
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
2.52
|
97.48 |
2.52
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.81
|
87.28
|
79.31
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.89
|
80.02
|
71.22
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.304% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.68
|
80.50
|
74.20
|
54.22
|
3.50 % |
94.29
|
90% Succ. 3.713% |
5.71 |
94.29
|
81.09
|
76.34
|
52.32
|
38.17
|
4.00 % |
82.28
|
80% Succ. 4.291% |
17.72 |
82.28
|
76.69
|
50.30
|
36.50
|
22.71
|
4.50 % |
76.81
|
23.19 |
76.81
|
50.54
|
36.03
|
24.14
|
9.16
|
|
5.00 % |
51.49
|
50% Succ. 5.032% |
48.51 |
51.49
|
35.20
|
23.54
|
6.78
|
2.85
|
5.50 % |
33.77
|
66.23 |
33.77
|
21.17
|
5.23
|
2.14
|
0.71
|
|
6.00 % |
18.19
|
81.81 |
18.19
|
4.64
|
1.07
|
0.48
|
0.12
|
|
6.50 % |
5.35
|
94.65 |
5.35
|
0.83
|
0.48
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.59
|
99.41 |
0.59
|
0.12
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com