Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.392% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 36.47% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.78% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.846%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 4.355 | 7.846 |
6.78 [ 4.13 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.014 Jul 1900 |
1.728 Jul 1901 |
3.301 Jul 1901 |
4.392 Jun 1911 |
|
95% |
0.243 |
1.429 |
2.561 |
3.721 |
4.779 |
||
90% |
0.526 |
1.652 |
2.812 |
3.915 |
4.959 |
||
80% |
1.444 |
2.412 |
3.364 |
4.347 |
5.388 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.312 |
4.168 |
5.043 |
5.994 |
6.885 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.277 Jul 1920 |
8.942 Jul 1920 |
9.608 Jul 1920 |
10.274 Jul 1920 |
10.956 Jun 1920 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.042 Jul 1933 |
1.239 Mar 1937 |
2.367 Mar 1937 |
3.495 Mar 1937 |
4.590 Jan 1940 |
|
95% |
0.496 |
1.608 |
2.713 |
3.765 |
4.832 |
||
90% |
0.906 |
1.990 |
3.064 |
4.142 |
5.255 |
||
80% |
1.881 |
2.904 |
3.921 |
4.985 |
5.959 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.339 |
4.168 |
5.039 |
5.971 |
6.785 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.993 Jul 1982 |
6.864 Jul 1982 |
7.735 Jul 1982 |
8.606 Jul 1982 |
9.478 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
3.181 Aug 1987 |
3.986 Aug 1987 |
4.790 Aug 1987 |
5.595 Aug 1987 |
6.399 Aug 1987 |
|
95% |
3.574 |
4.377 |
5.198 |
5.981 |
6.761 |
||
90% |
3.675 |
4.478 |
5.278 |
6.079 |
6.874 |
||
80% |
3.829 |
4.639 |
5.445 |
6.266 |
7.078 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.339 |
5.142 |
5.899 |
6.662 |
7.430 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.993 Jul 1982 |
6.864 Jul 1982 |
7.735 Jul 1982 |
8.606 Jul 1982 |
9.478 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.19
|
86.12
|
73.49
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.08
|
78.72
|
64.03
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.56
|
73.80
|
54.01
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.50
|
78.53
|
61.79
|
46.42
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.392% |
0.00 |
87.93
|
72.18
|
53.52
|
36.47
|
4.50 % |
99.75
|
95% Succ. 4.779% |
0.25 |
76.85
|
60.86
|
42.81
|
25.76
|
5.00 % |
89.05
|
80% Succ. 5.388% |
10.95 |
72.06
|
51.09
|
32.67
|
15.18
|
5.50 % |
78.72
|
21.28 |
59.05
|
39.76
|
20.47
|
10.08
|
|
6.00 % |
72.00
|
28.00 |
49.78
|
27.75
|
13.44
|
7.09
|
|
6.50 % |
55.57
|
50% Succ. 6.885% |
44.43 |
36.28
|
16.86
|
8.46
|
5.60
|
7.00 % |
47.36
|
52.64 |
23.21
|
12.20
|
6.35
|
3.67
|
|
7.50 % |
31.36
|
68.64 |
15.00
|
7.22
|
4.73
|
0.87
|
|
8.00 % |
19.73
|
80.27 |
10.08
|
5.04
|
1.49
|
0.31
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.91
|
77.94
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.96
|
83.25
|
65.04
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.84
|
78.36
|
54.84
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.90
|
83.66
|
64.83
|
46.20
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
92.30
|
78.88
|
54.63
|
33.40
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
0.00 |
84.18
|
63.79
|
41.31
|
17.17
|
5.00 % |
92.61
|
90% Succ. 5.255% |
7.39 |
79.19
|
50.78
|
27.78
|
4.27
|
5.50 % |
85.74
|
80% Succ. 5.959% |
14.26 |
61.08
|
37.15
|
9.47
|
0.73
|
6.00 % |
78.88
|
21.12 |
49.01
|
20.40
|
3.12
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
55.67
|
50% Succ. 6.785% |
44.33 |
32.26
|
6.24
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
45.27
|
54.73 |
13.74
|
2.71
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
25.18
|
74.82 |
4.89
|
0.21
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
9.99
|
90.01 |
2.08
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.12
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
71.47
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.37
|
36.01
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.23
|
58.17
|
5.26
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
77.29
|
16.90
|
1.39
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.399% |
0.00 |
93.91
|
41.00
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
6.50 % |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 6.761% |
1.66 |
62.88
|
8.59
|
1.11
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
83.66
|
80% Succ. 7.078% |
16.34 |
24.65
|
1.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.50 % |
43.77
|
56.23 |
5.26
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
14.13
|
85.87 |
1.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com