Permanent Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.392% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 36.11% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.54% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.334%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 4.502 8.334 6.54
[ 3.96 ] 		-16.38
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1898 		0.014
Jul 1900 		1.728
Jul 1901 		3.301
Jul 1901 		4.392
Jun 1911 		4.774
95% Succ. 		4.957
90% Succ. 		5.379
80% Succ. 		6.841
50% Succ.
Median 3.263
 4.131
 5.023
 5.978
 6.841
Average 3.226
 4.109
 5.022
 5.935
 6.849
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.277
Jul 1920 		8.942
Jul 1920 		9.608
Jul 1920 		10.274
Jul 1920 		10.956
Jun 1920
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.242
 0.500
 1.431
 3.263
75% 0.014
 1.429
 1.637
 2.402
 4.131
50% 1.728
 2.555
 2.809
 3.353
 5.023
25% 3.301
 3.716
 3.912
 4.337
 5.978
0% 4.392
 4.774
 4.957
 5.379
 6.841
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.042
Jul 1933 		1.239
Mar 1937 		2.367
Mar 1937 		3.495
Mar 1937 		4.590
Jan 1940 		4.832
95% Succ. 		5.255
90% Succ. 		5.959
80% Succ. 		6.785
50% Succ.
Median 3.339
 4.168
 5.039
 5.971
 6.785
Average 3.118
 4.032
 4.946
 5.860
 6.774
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.993
Jul 1982 		6.864
Jul 1982 		7.735
Jul 1982 		8.606
Jul 1982 		9.478
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.042
 0.496
 0.906
 1.881
 3.339
75% 1.239
 1.608
 1.990
 2.904
 4.168
50% 2.367
 2.713
 3.064
 3.921
 5.039
25% 3.495
 3.765
 4.142
 4.985
 5.971
0% 4.590
 4.832
 5.255
 5.959
 6.785
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		3.028
Apr 1974 		3.816
Jul 1973 		4.581
Jul 1973 		5.345
Jul 1973 		6.109
Jul 1973 		6.515
95% Succ. 		6.778
90% Succ. 		6.977
80% Succ. 		7.351
50% Succ.
Median 4.321
 5.085
 5.860
 6.604
 7.351
Average 4.254
 5.043
 5.832
 6.620
 7.409
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.993
Jul 1982 		6.864
Jul 1982 		7.735
Jul 1982 		8.606
Jul 1982 		9.478
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 3.028
 3.389
 3.606
 3.758
 4.321
75% 3.816
 4.168
 4.417
 4.564
 5.085
50% 4.581
 4.977
 5.207
 5.363
 5.860
25% 5.345
 5.741
 5.994
 6.166
 6.604
0% 6.109
 6.515
 6.778
 6.977
 7.351
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.18
85.95
73.16
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.03
78.45
63.58
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
86.39
73.47
53.43
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.50
78.26
61.31
45.75
4.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.392% 		0.00
100.00
87.78
71.83
52.93
36.11
4.50 %
99.75
95% Succ.
4.774% 		0.25
99.75
76.56
60.37
42.09
25.96
5.00 %
88.91
80% Succ.
5.379% 		11.09
88.91
71.71
50.47
32.26
15.37
5.50 %
78.45
21.55
78.45
58.54
39.00
20.67
10.21
6.00 %
71.64
28.36
71.64
49.15
27.28
13.61
7.18
6.50 %
55.01
50% Succ.
6.841% 		44.99
55.01
35.48
17.01
8.57
5.67
7.00 %
46.69
53.31
46.69
22.81
12.35
6.43
3.72
7.50 %
30.50
69.50
30.50
15.12
7.31
4.79
0.88
8.00 %
19.47
80.53
19.47
10.21
5.10
1.51
0.32
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
89.91
77.94
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.96
83.25
65.04
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.84
78.36
54.84
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.90
83.66
64.83
46.20
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.30
78.88
54.63
34.13
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.590% 		0.00
100.00
84.18
63.79
41.31
19.04
5.00 %
92.61
90% Succ.
5.255% 		7.39
92.61
79.19
50.78
28.51
6.35
5.50 %
85.74
80% Succ.
5.959% 		14.26
85.74
61.08
37.15
11.45
1.98
6.00 %
78.88
21.12
78.88
49.01
21.12
5.20
0.00
6.50 %
55.67
50% Succ.
6.785% 		44.33
55.67
32.26
8.22
1.14
0.00
7.00 %
45.27
54.73
45.27
14.67
4.58
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
25.18
74.82
25.18
6.87
0.42
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
11.24
88.76
11.24
3.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
92.24
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.06
68.42
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
83.66
35.46
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.91
54.85
5.26
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.89
72.30
16.62
1.39
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.109% 		0.00
100.00
89.47
37.40
2.49
0.00
6.50 %
95.01
95% Succ.
6.515% 		4.99
95.01
57.62
8.31
1.11
0.00
7.00 %
78.67
50% Succ.
7.351% 		21.33
78.67
21.61
1.66
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
38.50
61.50
38.50
4.99
0.55
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
11.91
88.09
11.91
1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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