Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.71% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.241%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.527 | 8.241 |
6.71 [ 4.07 ] |
-16.38 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.014 Jul 1900 |
1.728 Jul 1901 |
3.301 Jul 1901 |
4.392 Jun 1911 |
4.774 95% Succ. |
4.957 90% Succ. |
5.379 80% Succ. |
6.848 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.266 |
4.133 |
5.024 |
5.978 |
6.848 | |||||
Average |
3.228 |
4.111 |
5.024 |
5.937 |
6.850 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.277 Jul 1920 |
8.942 Jul 1920 |
9.608 Jul 1920 |
10.274 Jul 1920 |
10.956 Jun 1920 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.242 |
0.500 |
1.431 |
3.266 |
75% |
0.014 |
1.429 |
1.637 |
2.402 |
4.133 |
|
50% |
1.728 |
2.555 |
2.809 |
3.353 |
5.024 |
|
25% |
3.301 |
3.716 |
3.912 |
4.337 |
5.978 |
|
0% |
4.392 |
4.774 |
4.957 |
5.379 |
6.848 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.042 Jul 1933 |
1.239 Mar 1937 |
2.367 Mar 1937 |
3.495 Mar 1937 |
4.590 Jan 1940 |
4.832 95% Succ. |
5.255 90% Succ. |
5.959 80% Succ. |
6.785 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.339 |
4.168 |
5.039 |
5.971 |
6.785 | |||||
Average |
3.117 |
4.031 |
4.945 |
5.859 |
6.774 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.993 Jul 1982 |
6.864 Jul 1982 |
7.735 Jul 1982 |
8.606 Jul 1982 |
9.478 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.042 |
0.496 |
0.906 |
1.881 |
3.339 |
75% |
1.239 |
1.608 |
1.990 |
2.904 |
4.168 |
|
50% |
2.367 |
2.713 |
3.064 |
3.921 |
5.039 |
|
25% |
3.495 |
3.765 |
4.142 |
4.985 |
5.971 |
|
0% |
4.590 |
4.832 |
5.255 |
5.959 |
6.785 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.028 Apr 1974 |
3.816 Jul 1973 |
4.581 Jul 1973 |
5.345 Jul 1973 |
6.109 Jul 1973 |
6.546 95% Succ. |
6.784 90% Succ. |
6.982 80% Succ. |
7.367 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.330 |
5.102 |
5.861 |
6.609 |
7.367 | |||||
Average |
4.262 |
5.051 |
5.841 |
6.630 |
7.420 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.993 Jul 1982 |
6.864 Jul 1982 |
7.735 Jul 1982 |
8.606 Jul 1982 |
9.478 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.028 |
3.409 |
3.620 |
3.764 |
4.330 |
75% |
3.816 |
4.230 |
4.421 |
4.569 |
5.102 |
|
50% |
4.581 |
4.986 |
5.210 |
5.367 |
5.861 |
|
25% |
5.345 |
5.769 |
6.001 |
6.175 |
6.609 |
|
0% |
6.109 |
6.546 |
6.784 |
6.982 |
7.367 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.18
|
85.97
|
73.19
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.04
|
78.48
|
63.62
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.41
|
73.51
|
53.49
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.50
|
78.29
|
61.36
|
45.81
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.392% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.79
|
71.87
|
52.99
|
36.19
|
4.50 % |
99.75
|
95% Succ. 4.774% |
0.25 |
99.75
|
76.59
|
60.42
|
42.16
|
25.99
|
5.00 % |
88.92
|
80% Succ. 5.379% |
11.08 |
88.92
|
71.74
|
50.53
|
32.35
|
15.36
|
5.50 % |
78.48
|
21.52 |
78.48
|
58.59
|
39.08
|
20.70
|
10.20
|
|
6.00 % |
71.68
|
28.32 |
71.68
|
49.21
|
27.38
|
13.59
|
7.17
|
|
6.50 % |
55.07
|
50% Succ. 6.848% |
44.93 |
55.07
|
35.56
|
17.05
|
8.56
|
5.66
|
7.00 % |
46.76
|
53.24 |
46.76
|
22.91
|
12.33
|
6.42
|
3.71
|
|
7.50 % |
30.59
|
69.41 |
30.59
|
15.17
|
7.30
|
4.78
|
0.88
|
|
8.00 % |
19.57
|
80.43 |
19.57
|
10.20
|
5.10
|
1.51
|
0.31
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.91
|
77.94
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.96
|
83.25
|
65.04
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.84
|
78.36
|
54.84
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.90
|
83.66
|
64.83
|
46.20
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.30
|
78.88
|
54.63
|
34.13
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.590% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.18
|
63.79
|
41.31
|
18.94
|
5.00 % |
92.61
|
90% Succ. 5.255% |
7.39 |
92.61
|
79.19
|
50.78
|
28.51
|
6.14
|
5.50 % |
85.74
|
80% Succ. 5.959% |
14.26 |
85.74
|
61.08
|
37.15
|
11.34
|
1.98
|
6.00 % |
78.88
|
21.12 |
78.88
|
49.01
|
21.12
|
4.99
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
55.67
|
50% Succ. 6.785% |
44.33 |
55.67
|
32.26
|
8.12
|
1.14
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
45.27
|
54.73 |
45.27
|
14.67
|
4.58
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
25.18
|
74.82 |
25.18
|
6.76
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
11.24
|
88.76 |
11.24
|
3.75
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.80
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.06
|
68.98
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
84.21
|
35.73
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.46
|
55.40
|
5.26
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.89
|
72.85
|
16.90
|
1.39
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.109% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.03
|
37.95
|
2.49
|
0.00
|
6.50 % |
95.57
|
95% Succ. 6.546% |
4.43 |
95.57
|
58.17
|
8.59
|
1.11
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
79.22
|
50% Succ. 7.367% |
20.78 |
79.22
|
22.16
|
1.66
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
7.50 % |
39.06
|
60.94 |
39.06
|
5.26
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
12.47
|
87.53 |
12.47
|
1.39
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
For the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com