10-year Treasury Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.585% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 95.77% of cases. In the 30.74% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 20 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 3.09% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.141%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Nov 2004
 31 Oct 2024 0.617 6.141 3.09
[ 0.53 ] 		-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Feb 1897 		0.000
Feb 1898 		0.289
Jul 1900 		2.260
Feb 1941 		3.585
May 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 1.233
 2.719
 4.023
90%
 0.000
 0.203
 1.565
 2.960
 4.277
80%
 0.000
 0.654
 1.987
 3.314
 4.561
50%
Median WR 		1.986
 2.894
 3.817
 4.914
 6.002
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.000
Dec 1936 		0.842
Aug 1939 		2.260
Feb 1941 		3.585
May 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 1.252
 2.666
 3.909
90%
 0.000
 0.134
 1.528
 2.863
 4.211
80%
 0.000
 0.546
 1.934
 3.281
 4.577
50%
Median WR 		1.338
 2.344
 3.379
 4.364
 5.481
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.494
Nov 2003 		1.905
Apr 2004 		3.296
Apr 2004 		4.687
Apr 2004 		5.643
Jan 1977
95%
 0.974
 2.338
 3.683
 5.011
 5.979
90%
 2.715
 3.671
 4.570
 5.290
 6.134
80%
 3.348
 4.119
 4.855
 5.709
 6.650
50%
Median WR 		4.420
 5.213
 6.003
 6.833
 7.643
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
79.65
61.23
49.53
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.70
71.69
55.32
43.87
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
88.49
62.48
49.22
39.14
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585% 		0.00
75.54
53.14
44.49
34.85
4.00 %
95.77
95% Succ.
4.023% 		4.23
62.41
49.10
38.33
30.74
4.50 %
83.07
80% Succ.
4.561% 		16.93
53.39
45.49
33.85
25.26
5.00 %
65.46
34.54
49.53
37.65
29.68
20.04
5.50 %
54.57
45.43
44.93
32.73
23.02
15.68
6.00 %
50.03
50% Succ.
6.002% 		49.97
39.14
27.50
17.49
11.82
6.50 %
45.49
54.51
31.92
20.35
13.25
8.84
7.00 %
40.20
59.80
26.51
15.74
9.83
5.72
7.50 %
31.55
68.45
18.29
11.45
6.60
2.86
8.00 %
24.58
75.42
13.07
7.72
3.86
1.49
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
77.84
54.63
44.33
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.67
68.37
48.80
39.85
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
88.03
56.82
44.12
36.00
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585% 		0.00
74.51
48.49
40.06
30.80
4.00 %
93.03
90% Succ.
4.211% 		6.97
59.31
43.70
35.07
25.91
4.50 %
84.18
80% Succ.
4.577% 		15.82
48.70
41.00
29.55
18.52
5.00 %
65.56
50% Succ.
5.481% 		34.44
44.43
33.51
24.45
13.63
5.50 %
49.74
50.26
38.81
28.62
16.34
8.84
6.00 %
44.64
55.36
35.48
21.12
10.72
7.18
6.50 %
39.02
60.98
27.58
13.53
7.80
6.14
7.00 %
35.90
64.10
19.67
8.95
6.66
5.20
7.50 %
27.26
72.74
11.86
6.97
5.72
3.54
8.00 %
17.48
82.52
7.49
5.93
4.16
2.50
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.61
91.97
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.35
91.41
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.52
86.98
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.78
91.41
75.07
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.80
83.93
63.16
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.03
71.47
49.03
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.84
77.29
59.28
36.29
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.643% 		0.00
83.10
68.14
43.49
23.55
6.00 %
93.91
90% Succ.
6.134% 		6.09
75.90
50.42
28.53
19.11
6.50 %
81.99
80% Succ.
6.650% 		18.01
63.16
36.01
20.78
16.34
7.00 %
75.35
24.65
45.15
23.82
17.73
13.85
7.50 %
54.85
50% Succ.
7.643% 		45.15
31.58
18.56
15.24
9.42
8.00 %
38.78
61.22
19.94
15.79
11.08
6.65
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com