10-year Treasury Portfolio: 80-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 80 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 80-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.18% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 80 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 80 years in the 7.22% of cases. In the 4.06% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 80 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 80 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.18% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 1.412%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
80 Years 1 Nov 1944
 31 Oct 2024 0.968 1.412 5.18
[ 1.46 ] 		-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 80-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jan 1901 		0.179
Oct 1901 		0.606
Oct 1901 		1.019
May 1901 		1.180
Feb 1941
95%
 0.322
 0.617
 0.915
 1.153
 1.297
90%
 0.476
 0.738
 0.994
 1.209
 1.366
80%
 0.857
 1.001
 1.148
 1.277
 1.472
50%
Median WR 		1.205
 1.394
 1.579
 1.742
 1.870
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		4.669
Feb 1871 		4.819
Feb 1871 		4.970
Feb 1871 		5.121
Feb 1871 		5.271
Feb 1871
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.858
May 1941 		0.940
May 1941 		1.022
May 1941 		1.103
Feb 1941 		1.180
Feb 1941
95%
 0.883
 0.968
 1.045
 1.128
 1.209
90%
 0.917
 0.997
 1.078
 1.155
 1.232
80%
 0.944
 1.042
 1.138
 1.231
 1.318
50%
Median WR 		1.044
 1.127
 1.208
 1.300
 1.402
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		1.918
Jan 1925 		2.021
Nov 1925 		2.125
Nov 1925 		2.230
Nov 1925 		2.334
Nov 1925
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 80 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 80-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 80 Years
% Fail
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
48.03
51.97
38.90
32.47
28.64
24.92
2.50 %
24.24
75.76
23.00
20.86
19.17
16.80
3.00 %
18.83
81.17
17.93
13.53
11.16
9.36
3.50 %
10.94
89.06
9.92
8.46
6.99
5.86
4.00 %
7.22
92.78
5.86
5.30
4.51
4.06
4.50 %
4.51
95.49
4.06
2.71
1.80
0.45
5.00 %
1.58
98.42
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 80 Years
% Fail
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
25.31
74.69
13.28
10.37
4.56
0.00
2.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com