10-year Treasury Portfolio: 50-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.405% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 14.66% of cases. In the 3.77% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 50 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.74% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.006%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 Dec 1974
 30 Nov 2024 3.065 4.006 6.74
[ 2.94 ] 		-23.18
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Feb 1930 		0.000
May 1931 		0.507
Oct 1931 		1.094
Feb 1941 		1.405
Feb 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.399
 0.790
 1.217
 1.614
90%
 0.220
 0.591
 0.951
 1.333
 1.683
80%
 0.626
 1.013
 1.413
 1.809
 2.181
50%
Median WR 		1.645
 1.888
 2.138
 2.424
 2.727
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		5.065
Apr 1872 		5.422
Apr 1872 		5.780
Apr 1872 		6.137
Apr 1872 		6.513
Feb 1871
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Feb 1930 		0.000
May 1931 		0.507
Oct 1931 		1.094
Feb 1941 		1.405
Feb 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.080
 0.683
 1.163
 1.499
90%
 0.000
 0.370
 0.786
 1.217
 1.610
80%
 0.209
 0.575
 0.946
 1.329
 1.677
50%
Median WR 		1.346
 1.661
 2.038
 2.271
 2.508
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		3.156
Sep 1974 		3.387
Sep 1974 		3.618
Sep 1974 		3.849
Sep 1974 		4.080
Sep 1974
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
85.50
80% Succ.
2.181% 		14.50
68.27
55.05
46.23
38.86
2.50 %
58.17
50% Succ.
2.727% 		41.83
48.32
35.50
24.68
18.99
3.00 %
35.74
64.26
25.16
19.23
15.71
12.26
3.50 %
20.35
79.65
16.03
13.38
9.29
6.57
4.00 %
14.66
85.34
11.54
7.45
5.21
3.77
4.50 %
8.81
91.19
6.97
4.49
3.45
1.92
5.00 %
5.69
94.31
4.01
3.04
1.52
0.08
5.50 %
3.53
96.47
2.56
1.20
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
1.84
98.16
0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.08
99.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
69.88
30.12
59.57
50.92
37.77
33.78
2.50 %
50.08
50% Succ.
2.508% 		49.92
39.10
21.13
15.31
8.99
3.00 %
18.80
81.20
10.98
6.49
3.49
1.50
3.50 %
4.16
95.84
1.66
0.83
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.67
99.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com