10-year Treasury Portfolio: 60-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.286% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 11.11% of cases. In the 5.51% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 60 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 60 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.27% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.579%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
60 Years 1 Mar 1963
 28 Feb 2023 1.919 2.579 6.27
[ 2.30 ] 		-21.22
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.386
Aug 1897 		0.767
Aug 1897 		0.963
Dec 1940 		1.125
Feb 1941 		1.286
Feb 1941 		1.458
95% Succ. 		1.518
90% Succ. 		1.879
80% Succ. 		2.300
50% Succ.
Median 1.185
 1.520
 1.794
 2.067
 2.300
Average 1.557
 1.810
 2.062
 2.314
 2.566
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.127
Apr 1872 		5.306
Apr 1872 		5.485
Apr 1872 		5.664
Apr 1872 		5.845
Feb 1871
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.386
 0.566
 0.628
 0.697
 1.185
75% 0.767
 0.845
 0.895
 0.980
 1.520
50% 0.963
 1.072
 1.145
 1.262
 1.794
25% 1.125
 1.268
 1.350
 1.571
 2.067
0% 1.286
 1.458
 1.518
 1.879
 2.300
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.596
Dec 1934 		0.795
Aug 1939 		0.963
Dec 1940 		1.125
Feb 1941 		1.286
Feb 1941 		1.350
95% Succ. 		1.441
90% Succ. 		1.506
80% Succ. 		2.090
50% Succ.
Median 1.151
 1.460
 1.742
 1.928
 2.090
Average 1.297
 1.485
 1.672
 1.860
 2.048
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		2.348
Oct 1959 		2.465
Oct 1959 		2.583
Oct 1959 		2.700
Oct 1959 		2.888
Jul 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.596
 0.639
 0.665
 0.752
 1.151
75% 0.795
 0.830
 0.864
 0.935
 1.460
50% 0.963
 1.008
 1.068
 1.126
 1.742
25% 1.125
 1.183
 1.256
 1.320
 1.928
0% 1.286
 1.350
 1.441
 1.506
 2.090
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
70.01
50% Succ.
2.300% 		29.99
70.01
52.57
41.64
29.81
22.94
2.50 %
42.01
57.99
42.01
26.65
19.24
15.72
14.91
3.00 %
19.87
80.13
19.87
16.98
14.81
13.82
13.46
3.50 %
15.99
84.01
15.99
14.00
12.74
10.30
8.40
4.00 %
11.11
88.89
11.11
8.40
7.68
6.68
5.51
4.50 %
6.59
93.41
6.59
5.51
4.61
3.97
3.43
5.00 %
3.88
96.12
3.88
3.52
2.62
1.72
0.81
5.50 %
1.72
98.28
1.72
0.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
54.68
50% Succ.
2.090% 		45.32
54.68
47.40
30.77
20.37
13.72
2.50 %
25.16
74.84
25.16
6.86
1.87
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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