10-year Treasury Portfolio: 50-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.405% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 14.59% of cases. In the 3.83% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 50 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.75% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.365%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 Mar 1973
 28 Feb 2023 2.470 3.365 6.75
[ 2.68 ] 		-21.22
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1930 		0.000
May 1931 		0.507
Oct 1931 		1.094
Feb 1941 		1.405
Feb 1941 		1.612
95% Succ. 		1.678
90% Succ. 		2.178
80% Succ. 		2.718
50% Succ.
Median 1.590
 1.865
 2.120
 2.362
 2.718
Average 1.619
 1.921
 2.247
 2.576
 2.905
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.065
Apr 1872 		5.422
Apr 1872 		5.780
Apr 1872 		6.137
Apr 1872 		6.513
Feb 1871
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.218
 0.622
 1.590
75% 0.000
 0.398
 0.576
 1.010
 1.865
50% 0.507
 0.789
 0.950
 1.405
 2.120
25% 1.094
 1.217
 1.331
 1.800
 2.362
0% 1.405
 1.612
 1.678
 2.178
 2.718
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1930 		0.000
May 1931 		0.507
Oct 1931 		1.094
Feb 1941 		1.405
Feb 1941 		1.499
95% Succ. 		1.610
90% Succ. 		1.677
80% Succ. 		2.508
50% Succ.
Median 1.329
 1.661
 2.038
 2.271
 2.508
Average 1.286
 1.535
 1.834
 2.137
 2.440
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		3.103
Jun 1970 		3.247
Jun 1970 		3.392
Jun 1970 		3.536
Jun 1970 		3.681
Jun 1970
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.209
 1.329
75% 0.000
 0.080
 0.370
 0.575
 1.661
50% 0.507
 0.683
 0.786
 0.946
 2.038
25% 1.094
 1.163
 1.217
 1.329
 2.271
0% 1.405
 1.499
 1.610
 1.677
 2.508
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
85.25
80% Succ.
2.178% 		14.75
85.25
67.73
54.28
45.31
37.82
2.50 %
57.46
50% Succ.
2.718% 		42.54
57.46
47.43
34.39
23.39
17.60
3.00 %
34.64
65.36
34.64
23.88
18.09
15.24
12.06
3.50 %
19.48
80.52
19.48
15.57
13.20
9.45
6.68
4.00 %
14.59
85.41
14.59
11.74
7.58
5.30
3.83
4.50 %
8.96
91.04
8.96
7.09
4.56
3.50
1.96
5.00 %
5.79
94.21
5.79
4.07
3.10
1.55
0.08
5.50 %
3.59
96.41
3.59
2.61
1.22
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
1.87
98.13
1.87
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.08
99.92
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
69.88
30.12
69.88
59.57
50.92
36.44
30.28
2.50 %
50.08
50% Succ.
2.508% 		49.92
50.08
39.10
19.63
11.81
5.49
3.00 %
18.80
81.20
18.80
9.48
3.49
2.00
0.67
3.50 %
3.33
96.67
3.33
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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