Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.74% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.611%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.115 | 6.611 |
6.74 [ 3.78 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.926 95% Succ. |
2.198 90% Succ. |
2.560 80% Succ. |
3.106 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.547 |
2.014 |
2.440 |
2.759 |
3.106 | |||||
Average |
1.916 |
2.291 |
2.713 |
3.158 |
3.606 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.193 Oct 1981 |
8.463 Oct 1981 |
8.734 Oct 1981 |
9.004 Oct 1981 |
9.274 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.828 |
1.547 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.228 |
1.335 |
2.014 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.604 |
0.875 |
1.810 |
2.440 |
|
25% |
0.748 |
1.268 |
1.539 |
2.201 |
2.759 |
|
0% |
1.737 |
1.926 |
2.198 |
2.560 |
3.106 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.859 95% Succ. |
1.931 90% Succ. |
2.212 80% Succ. |
2.970 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.603 |
2.038 |
2.399 |
2.729 |
2.970 | |||||
Average |
1.772 |
2.064 |
2.443 |
2.867 |
3.294 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.193 Oct 1981 |
8.463 Oct 1981 |
8.734 Oct 1981 |
9.004 Oct 1981 |
9.274 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.603 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.375 |
2.038 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.378 |
0.623 |
1.001 |
2.399 |
|
25% |
0.748 |
1.120 |
1.293 |
1.601 |
2.729 |
|
0% |
1.737 |
1.859 |
1.931 |
2.212 |
2.970 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
93.11
|
90% Succ. 2.198% |
6.89 |
93.11
|
84.95
|
64.94
|
50.26
|
37.66
|
2.50 % |
81.62
|
80% Succ. 2.560% |
18.38 |
81.62
|
61.01
|
46.63
|
31.80
|
24.24
|
3.00 % |
54.86
|
50% Succ. 3.106% |
45.14 |
54.86
|
40.40
|
30.39
|
22.46
|
16.60
|
3.50 % |
38.70
|
61.30 |
38.70
|
29.06
|
22.24
|
16.98
|
14.23
|
|
4.00 % |
28.17
|
71.83 |
28.17
|
22.09
|
16.68
|
11.71
|
10.23
|
|
4.50 % |
20.68
|
79.32 |
20.68
|
15.57
|
11.42
|
9.64
|
8.30
|
|
5.00 % |
17.05
|
82.95 |
17.05
|
11.64
|
9.49
|
7.64
|
6.67
|
|
5.50 % |
11.49
|
88.51 |
11.49
|
8.97
|
7.19
|
6.23
|
4.97
|
|
6.00 % |
9.04
|
90.96 |
9.04
|
6.97
|
5.56
|
3.93
|
2.59
|
|
6.50 % |
6.23
|
93.77 |
6.23
|
4.74
|
3.48
|
2.15
|
1.70
|
|
7.00 % |
3.78
|
96.22 |
3.78
|
2.59
|
1.70
|
1.33
|
0.96
|
|
7.50 % |
1.78
|
98.22 |
1.78
|
1.33
|
1.19
|
0.67
|
0.30
|
|
8.00 % |
1.26
|
98.74 |
1.26
|
0.82
|
0.30
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
87.10
|
80% Succ. 2.212% |
12.90 |
87.10
|
71.84
|
61.58
|
50.62
|
39.81
|
2.50 % |
70.04
|
50% Succ. 2.970% |
29.96 |
70.04
|
57.70
|
44.38
|
27.88
|
23.86
|
3.00 % |
46.74
|
53.26 |
46.74
|
33.98
|
25.24
|
19.00
|
16.64
|
|
3.50 % |
32.18
|
67.82 |
32.18
|
22.33
|
15.67
|
15.12
|
14.01
|
|
4.00 % |
20.39
|
79.61 |
20.39
|
14.70
|
13.18
|
9.02
|
8.32
|
|
4.50 % |
11.65
|
88.35 |
11.65
|
8.88
|
8.32
|
7.49
|
6.80
|
|
5.00 % |
8.32
|
91.68 |
8.32
|
7.49
|
6.80
|
6.24
|
5.96
|
|
5.50 % |
6.66
|
93.34 |
6.66
|
6.10
|
5.96
|
5.69
|
4.58
|
|
6.00 % |
5.96
|
94.04 |
5.96
|
5.96
|
4.85
|
4.16
|
3.74
|
|
6.50 % |
5.41
|
94.59 |
5.41
|
4.16
|
3.88
|
3.61
|
3.19
|
|
7.00 % |
3.88
|
96.12 |
3.88
|
3.61
|
3.19
|
2.50
|
1.80
|
|
7.50 % |
3.19
|
96.81 |
3.19
|
2.50
|
2.22
|
1.25
|
0.55
|
|
8.00 % |
2.36
|
97.64 |
2.36
|
1.53
|
0.55
|
0.28
|
0.28
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio
For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com