Last Update: 31 March 2025
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.375% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 49.33% of cases. In the 21.92% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2025), the portfolio has returned 4.85% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.985%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2025 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 30 Years |
1 Apr 1995 |
31 Mar 2025 | 2.936 | 5.985 |
4.85 [ 2.27 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2025)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1889 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.007 |
0.957 |
1.866 |
2.692 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.329 |
1.189 |
2.134 |
2.953 |
||
|
80% |
0.044 |
0.835 |
1.664 |
2.440 |
3.175 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.731 |
2.221 |
2.776 |
3.354 |
3.939 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.120 Oct 1981 |
9.450 Oct 1981 |
9.780 Oct 1981 |
10.109 Oct 1981 |
10.439 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jul 1932 |
0.000 Apr 1939 |
0.606 May 1940 |
1.523 Nov 1940 |
2.375 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.814 |
1.700 |
2.590 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.052 |
1.016 |
1.895 |
2.708 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.419 |
1.299 |
2.195 |
3.119 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.535 |
2.058 |
2.606 |
3.133 |
3.628 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.120 Oct 1981 |
9.450 Oct 1981 |
9.780 Oct 1981 |
10.109 Oct 1981 |
10.439 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.194 Nov 1993 |
2.980 Nov 1993 |
3.765 Nov 1993 |
4.372 Jan 1977 |
4.719 Jan 1977 |
|
|
95% |
2.825 |
3.523 |
4.216 |
4.643 |
4.993 |
||
|
90% |
3.052 |
3.774 |
4.298 |
4.702 |
5.062 |
||
|
80% |
3.609 |
3.988 |
4.461 |
5.003 |
5.615 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.597 |
5.065 |
5.512 |
5.987 |
6.451 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.120 Oct 1981 |
9.450 Oct 1981 |
9.780 Oct 1981 |
10.109 Oct 1981 |
10.439 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
0.00 |
92.83
|
73.73
|
57.37
|
42.90
|
| 2.50 % |
98.73
|
95% Succ. 2.692% |
1.27 |
78.15
|
58.91
|
43.50
|
34.65
|
| 3.00 % |
87.94
|
80% Succ. 3.175% |
12.06 |
61.33
|
44.91
|
36.60
|
29.49
|
| 3.50 % |
62.53
|
50% Succ. 3.939% |
37.47 |
46.51
|
37.87
|
30.23
|
25.87
|
| 4.00 % |
49.33
|
50.67 |
39.48
|
32.51
|
25.13
|
21.92
|
|
| 4.50 % |
43.83
|
56.17 |
34.99
|
26.01
|
22.25
|
16.15
|
|
| 5.00 % |
35.92
|
64.08 |
27.01
|
22.72
|
16.82
|
11.33
|
|
| 5.50 % |
30.23
|
69.77 |
23.12
|
17.16
|
11.33
|
9.18
|
|
| 6.00 % |
23.66
|
76.34 |
18.10
|
11.26
|
9.05
|
7.10
|
|
| 6.50 % |
18.83
|
81.17 |
11.73
|
8.91
|
6.77
|
5.03
|
|
| 7.00 % |
11.86
|
88.14 |
8.38
|
6.30
|
4.09
|
2.35
|
|
| 7.50 % |
8.38
|
91.62 |
5.56
|
3.55
|
1.61
|
1.34
|
|
| 8.00 % |
5.23
|
94.77 |
2.75
|
1.41
|
1.14
|
0.67
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.375% |
0.00 |
87.28
|
65.87
|
53.03
|
41.26
|
| 2.50 % |
97.74
|
95% Succ. 2.590% |
2.26 |
68.73
|
53.98
|
41.38
|
34.60
|
| 3.00 % |
83.47
|
80% Succ. 3.119% |
16.53 |
53.51
|
42.57
|
33.29
|
28.30
|
| 3.50 % |
54.58
|
50% Succ. 3.628% |
45.42 |
43.52
|
34.13
|
28.89
|
24.97
|
| 4.00 % |
42.45
|
57.55 |
34.24
|
29.13
|
22.24
|
19.74
|
|
| 4.50 % |
37.57
|
62.43 |
30.68
|
22.24
|
19.38
|
15.58
|
|
| 5.00 % |
30.44
|
69.56 |
22.95
|
19.14
|
15.34
|
9.75
|
|
| 5.50 % |
24.38
|
75.62 |
19.02
|
14.63
|
9.27
|
8.68
|
|
| 6.00 % |
18.91
|
81.09 |
14.03
|
8.92
|
8.32
|
7.37
|
|
| 6.50 % |
13.79
|
86.21 |
8.92
|
8.20
|
6.90
|
5.35
|
|
| 7.00 % |
8.80
|
91.20 |
7.49
|
6.54
|
4.64
|
3.33
|
|
| 7.50 % |
7.13
|
92.87 |
5.83
|
4.16
|
2.73
|
2.38
|
|
| 8.00 % |
5.47
|
94.53 |
3.69
|
2.50
|
2.02
|
1.19
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.59
|
91.70
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.85
|
85.06
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.93
|
77.59
|
68.88
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.719% |
0.00 |
99.17
|
77.59
|
67.63
|
54.36
|
| 5.00 % |
94.19
|
90% Succ. 5.062% |
5.81 |
80.08
|
66.80
|
53.53
|
34.02
|
| 5.50 % |
81.33
|
80% Succ. 5.615% |
18.67 |
66.39
|
51.04
|
32.37
|
30.29
|
| 6.00 % |
65.98
|
50% Succ. 6.451% |
34.02 |
48.96
|
31.12
|
29.05
|
25.73
|
| 6.50 % |
48.13
|
51.87 |
31.12
|
28.63
|
24.07
|
18.67
|
|
| 7.00 % |
30.71
|
69.29 |
26.14
|
22.82
|
16.18
|
11.62
|
|
| 7.50 % |
24.90
|
75.10 |
20.33
|
14.52
|
9.54
|
8.30
|
|
| 8.00 % |
19.09
|
80.91 |
12.86
|
8.71
|
7.05
|
4.15
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio
For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
