10-year Treasury Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.585% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 95.72% of cases. In the 31.09% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 3.57% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.373%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 1.160 6.373 3.57
[ 1.01 ] 		-21.22
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1897 		0.000
Feb 1898 		0.289
Jul 1900 		2.260
Feb 1941 		3.585
May 1941 		4.021
95% Succ. 		4.269
90% Succ. 		4.555
80% Succ. 		5.970
50% Succ.
Median 2.005
 2.964
 3.894
 4.946
 5.970
Average 2.572
 3.335
 4.330
 5.366
 6.402
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 2.005
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.194
 0.642
 2.964
50% 0.289
 1.230
 1.561
 1.976
 3.894
25% 2.260
 2.712
 2.953
 3.306
 4.946
0% 3.585
 4.021
 4.269
 4.555
 5.970
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.000
Dec 1936 		0.842
Aug 1939 		2.260
Feb 1941 		3.585
May 1941 		3.909
95% Succ. 		4.211
90% Succ. 		4.577
80% Succ. 		5.481
50% Succ.
Median 1.694
 2.556
 3.422
 4.364
 5.481
Average 2.278
 3.046
 4.085
 5.152
 6.220
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.694
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.134
 0.546
 2.556
50% 0.842
 1.252
 1.528
 1.934
 3.422
25% 2.260
 2.666
 2.863
 3.281
 4.364
0% 3.585
 3.909
 4.211
 4.577
 5.481
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.927
Oct 2002 		2.266
Oct 2002 		3.606
Oct 2002 		4.295
May 1973 		4.929
May 1973 		5.756
95% Succ. 		5.979
90% Succ. 		6.650
80% Succ. 		7.643
50% Succ.
Median 4.420
 5.213
 6.003
 6.833
 7.643
Average 4.739
 5.515
 6.292
 7.068
 7.844
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.145
Oct 1981 		10.762
Oct 1981 		11.379
Oct 1981 		11.996
Oct 1981 		12.613
Oct 1981
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.927
 2.568
 2.843
 3.348
 4.420
75% 2.266
 3.384
 3.729
 4.119
 5.213
50% 3.606
 4.022
 4.570
 4.855
 6.003
25% 4.295
 5.011
 5.290
 5.709
 6.833
0% 4.929
 5.756
 5.979
 6.650
 7.643
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
79.42
61.11
50.09
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.67
71.37
55.95
44.37
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.36
62.05
49.78
39.58
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585% 		0.00
100.00
75.27
53.12
45.00
35.24
4.00 %
95.72
95% Succ.
4.021% 		4.28
95.72
61.99
49.65
38.77
31.09
4.50 %
82.88
80% Succ.
4.555% 		17.12
82.88
52.86
46.00
34.24
25.55
5.00 %
65.07
34.93
65.07
49.84
38.07
30.02
20.26
5.50 %
54.06
50% Succ.
5.970% 		45.94
54.06
45.44
33.10
23.29
15.86
6.00 %
49.47
50.53
49.47
39.58
27.82
17.68
11.96
6.50 %
45.88
54.12
45.88
32.28
20.58
13.40
8.94
7.00 %
40.65
59.35
40.65
26.81
15.92
9.94
5.79
7.50 %
31.91
68.09
31.91
18.50
11.58
6.67
2.89
8.00 %
24.86
75.14
24.86
13.22
7.80
3.90
1.51
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
77.84
55.15
46.20
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.67
68.37
50.68
41.73
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.03
56.82
45.99
37.88
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.585% 		0.00
100.00
74.51
49.32
41.94
32.67
4.00 %
93.03
90% Succ.
4.211% 		6.97
93.03
59.31
45.58
36.94
27.78
4.50 %
84.18
80% Succ.
4.577% 		15.82
84.18
48.70
42.87
31.43
19.67
5.00 %
65.56
50% Succ.
5.481% 		34.44
65.56
45.89
35.38
26.33
13.63
5.50 %
49.74
50.26
49.74
40.69
30.49
17.17
8.84
6.00 %
44.64
55.36
44.64
37.36
23.00
10.72
7.18
6.50 %
40.69
59.31
40.69
29.45
14.05
7.80
6.14
7.00 %
37.77
62.23
37.77
21.54
8.95
6.66
5.20
7.50 %
29.14
70.86
29.14
12.07
6.97
5.72
3.54
8.00 %
19.35
80.65
19.35
7.49
5.93
4.16
2.50
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.95
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
95.84
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.51
87.81
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
93.07
75.07
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.84
83.93
63.16
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.929% 		0.00
100.00
98.34
90.30
71.47
49.03
5.00 %
99.72
0.28
99.72
95.57
77.29
59.28
36.29
5.50 %
96.68
95% Succ.
5.756% 		3.32
96.68
83.10
68.14
43.49
23.55
6.00 %
88.92
11.08
88.92
75.90
50.42
28.53
19.11
6.50 %
81.44
80% Succ.
6.650% 		18.56
81.44
63.16
36.01
20.78
16.34
7.00 %
75.35
24.65
75.35
45.15
23.82
17.73
13.85
7.50 %
54.85
50% Succ.
7.643% 		45.15
54.85
31.58
18.56
15.24
9.42
8.00 %
38.78
61.22
38.78
19.94
15.79
11.08
6.65
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of 10-year Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio

For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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