Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.493% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 39.37% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the 10-year Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 0.91% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.18%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.838%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
10 Years |
1 Nov 2014 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.000 | 9.838 |
0.91 [ -1.92 ] |
-23.18 Aug 2020 - Oct 2023 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to 10-year Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the 10-year Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1897 |
0.000 May 1908 |
0.853 Oct 1971 |
4.621 Oct 1971 |
7.493 Sep 1915 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.626 |
5.472 |
8.069 |
||
90% |
0.000 |
0.409 |
3.140 |
5.765 |
8.573 |
||
80% |
0.000 |
1.444 |
4.217 |
6.899 |
9.462 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.437 |
4.475 |
6.606 |
8.827 |
11.182 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
12.401 Oct 1981 |
14.016 Oct 1981 |
15.632 Oct 1981 |
17.248 Oct 1981 |
18.863 Oct 1981 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Aug 1936 |
0.000 Aug 1938 |
0.853 Oct 1971 |
4.621 Oct 1971 |
7.643 Feb 1946 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.649 |
5.487 |
8.227 |
||
90% |
0.000 |
0.228 |
3.041 |
5.821 |
8.646 |
||
80% |
0.000 |
1.319 |
4.155 |
6.875 |
9.381 |
||
50% Median WR |
1.501 |
3.784 |
6.009 |
8.411 |
10.814 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
12.401 Oct 1981 |
14.016 Oct 1981 |
15.632 Oct 1981 |
17.248 Oct 1981 |
18.863 Oct 1981 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Apr 2012 |
0.575 Nov 2013 |
3.827 Nov 2012 |
6.706 Jan 1975 |
8.494 Jan 1977 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.370 |
4.353 |
7.207 |
9.101 |
||
90% |
1.503 |
3.541 |
5.562 |
7.431 |
9.991 |
||
80% |
2.615 |
4.647 |
6.700 |
8.799 |
10.812 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.215 |
6.188 |
8.186 |
10.221 |
12.280 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
12.401 Oct 1981 |
14.016 Oct 1981 |
15.632 Oct 1981 |
17.248 Oct 1981 |
18.863 Oct 1981 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.86
|
74.17
|
52.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.24
|
67.28
|
49.62
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.72
|
63.23
|
46.21
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.57
|
56.28
|
43.66
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
81.88
|
52.75
|
39.37
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
75.45
|
49.97
|
34.05
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.49
|
67.46
|
46.67
|
28.43
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.44
|
60.91
|
44.01
|
24.78
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
87.96
|
54.31
|
39.61
|
19.40
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
84.13
|
50.43
|
34.28
|
15.00
|
|
7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.493% |
0.00 |
77.65
|
48.12
|
28.08
|
9.96
|
7.50 % |
99.94
|
0.06 |
66.71
|
44.30
|
23.62
|
6.89
|
|
8.00 % |
95.77
|
4.23 |
57.79
|
39.72
|
18.18
|
4.11
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.96
|
72.25
|
47.64
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.48
|
68.46
|
45.33
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.03
|
63.37
|
40.89
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.33
|
52.73
|
37.37
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
81.50
|
48.20
|
33.02
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
73.91
|
45.24
|
27.47
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.43
|
68.27
|
41.44
|
22.20
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.91
|
59.85
|
37.84
|
19.15
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
88.53
|
50.23
|
33.30
|
14.06
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
84.74
|
45.24
|
27.57
|
10.18
|
|
7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
77.43
|
43.02
|
21.83
|
6.29
|
|
7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.643% |
0.00 |
66.70
|
38.21
|
18.59
|
5.27
|
8.00 % |
97.78
|
2.22 |
55.23
|
33.40
|
13.32
|
4.16
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.56
|
87.32
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.93
|
82.54
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.48
|
73.18
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.02
|
65.49
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.13
|
87.53
|
55.93
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.97
|
81.91
|
44.28
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.31
|
73.80
|
33.47
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.44
|
66.32
|
27.44
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.82
|
56.34
|
20.79
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
81.29
|
43.66
|
15.80
|
|
7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.92
|
77.13
|
32.64
|
13.51
|
|
7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
87.73
|
66.53
|
26.20
|
11.85
|
|
8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
84.20
|
56.34
|
19.13
|
9.36
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
10-year Treasury Portfolio
For the 10-year Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com