Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.505% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 29.72% of cases. In the 24.25% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.36% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.56%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.476%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 Oct 1954 |
30 Sep 2024 | 3.193 | 3.476 |
7.36 [ 3.65 ] |
-17.56 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.172 May 1911 |
2.301 Feb 1937 |
2.369 Feb 1937 |
2.437 Feb 1937 |
2.505 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.348 |
2.445 |
2.532 |
2.623 |
2.700 |
||
90% |
2.426 |
2.536 |
2.630 |
2.733 |
2.838 |
||
80% |
2.596 |
2.700 |
2.795 |
2.898 |
3.003 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.209 |
3.290 |
3.373 |
3.456 |
3.542 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.727 Dec 1873 |
6.803 Dec 1873 |
6.878 Dec 1873 |
6.954 Dec 1873 |
7.029 Dec 1873 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.232 Feb 1937 |
2.301 Feb 1937 |
2.369 Feb 1937 |
2.437 Feb 1937 |
2.505 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.318 |
2.389 |
2.464 |
2.536 |
2.614 |
||
90% |
2.384 |
2.452 |
2.524 |
2.593 |
2.662 |
||
80% |
2.548 |
2.619 |
2.689 |
2.759 |
2.825 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.234 |
3.300 |
3.366 |
3.432 |
3.497 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
4.331 Oct 1924 |
4.420 Oct 1924 |
4.509 Oct 1924 |
4.598 Oct 1924 |
4.688 Oct 1924 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.505% |
0.00 |
99.30
|
96.72
|
91.75
|
85.98
|
3.00 % |
80.22
|
80% Succ. 3.003% |
19.78 |
69.09
|
60.44
|
57.26
|
55.47
|
3.50 % |
51.59
|
50% Succ. 3.542% |
48.41 |
47.81
|
43.74
|
40.85
|
36.58
|
4.00 % |
29.72
|
70.28 |
29.13
|
28.03
|
26.34
|
24.25
|
|
4.50 % |
21.57
|
78.43 |
19.58
|
17.20
|
15.71
|
14.41
|
|
5.00 % |
12.52
|
87.48 |
11.53
|
11.23
|
10.93
|
10.34
|
|
5.50 % |
9.84
|
90.16 |
9.44
|
9.15
|
8.15
|
7.65
|
|
6.00 % |
6.06
|
93.94 |
5.37
|
4.97
|
4.47
|
4.08
|
|
6.50 % |
2.78
|
97.22 |
2.39
|
1.99
|
1.39
|
0.80
|
|
7.00 % |
0.10
|
99.90 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.505% |
0.00 |
98.06
|
91.97
|
85.60
|
81.44
|
3.00 % |
71.19
|
50% Succ. 3.497% |
28.81 |
62.88
|
58.45
|
57.34
|
55.68
|
3.50 % |
49.31
|
50.69 |
46.54
|
39.61
|
36.84
|
29.36
|
|
4.00 % |
11.63
|
88.37 |
10.80
|
9.97
|
8.59
|
8.03
|
|
4.50 % |
5.26
|
94.74 |
2.22
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com