Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.771% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 48.66% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.84% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.56%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.69%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 2.054 | 11.690 |
4.84 [ 1.95 ] |
-17.56 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1908 |
0.000 Mar 1910 |
2.102 Jul 1911 |
5.183 Jul 1911 |
7.771 Dec 1915 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.561 |
4.076 |
6.489 |
8.805 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
2.092 |
4.527 |
7.063 |
9.606 |
||
|
80% |
1.279 |
3.580 |
5.856 |
8.152 |
10.472 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.891 |
5.859 |
7.844 |
9.941 |
12.096 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.479 Jun 1920 |
13.018 Jun 1920 |
14.557 Jun 1920 |
16.180 Jul 1982 |
17.855 Jul 1982 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Nov 1936 |
0.000 Oct 1971 |
2.940 Oct 1971 |
5.735 Jun 1972 |
8.239 Jan 1973 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.694 |
4.373 |
6.932 |
9.318 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
2.190 |
4.707 |
7.224 |
9.770 |
||
|
80% |
1.231 |
3.461 |
5.772 |
8.088 |
10.443 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.736 |
5.680 |
7.708 |
9.824 |
12.015 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.153 Jul 1982 |
12.829 Jul 1982 |
14.504 Jul 1982 |
16.180 Jul 1982 |
17.855 Jul 1982 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.713 Mar 1999 |
3.314 Mar 1999 |
5.561 Apr 1974 |
7.665 Apr 1974 |
9.770 Apr 1974 |
|
|
95% |
1.900 |
4.236 |
6.483 |
8.644 |
10.596 |
||
|
90% |
2.208 |
4.548 |
6.817 |
8.872 |
10.897 |
||
|
80% |
3.197 |
5.240 |
7.195 |
9.244 |
11.287 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.771 |
6.758 |
8.689 |
10.600 |
12.493 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.153 Jul 1982 |
12.829 Jul 1982 |
14.504 Jul 1982 |
16.180 Jul 1982 |
17.855 Jul 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.10
|
72.85
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.48
|
86.34
|
66.74
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.78
|
83.72
|
60.93
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.79
|
80.52
|
54.53
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.87
|
75.87
|
48.66
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.41
|
69.65
|
43.02
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
85.64
|
63.14
|
35.58
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.65
|
82.67
|
54.77
|
30.76
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.14
|
78.95
|
48.37
|
25.23
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.88
|
72.97
|
42.50
|
21.40
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
91.10
|
65.81
|
34.71
|
17.15
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.771% |
0.00 |
84.88
|
56.05
|
29.42
|
13.78
|
| 8.00 % |
99.36
|
0.64 |
81.45
|
48.49
|
24.24
|
10.58
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.32
|
72.62
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.86
|
67.35
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.81
|
84.00
|
61.42
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.70
|
79.37
|
53.38
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.59
|
75.49
|
45.79
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.06
|
70.31
|
39.87
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.77
|
64.01
|
30.90
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.42
|
53.47
|
26.36
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.98
|
77.80
|
45.24
|
21.28
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.96
|
73.64
|
39.04
|
17.58
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.62
|
66.42
|
30.43
|
14.15
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
85.57
|
54.49
|
25.07
|
10.18
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
80.85
|
45.42
|
20.44
|
6.38
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.35
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.36
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
82.54
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
71.52
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.88
|
61.95
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.44
|
57.59
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
83.16
|
45.53
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
70.69
|
38.46
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.54
|
60.08
|
32.43
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.80
|
55.51
|
27.23
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
85.65
|
44.28
|
22.45
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
68.61
|
36.17
|
14.76
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.79
|
58.63
|
31.19
|
9.36
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
