US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.733% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 94.15% of cases. In the 36.83% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 6.64% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.56%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.719%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Dec 1994
 30 Nov 2024 4.661 6.719 6.64
[ 4.02 ] 		-17.56
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.128
Jul 1890 		2.056
Dec 1945 		2.684
Feb 1946 		3.276
May 1901 		3.733
May 1901
95%
 1.824
 2.439
 3.008
 3.528
 3.975
90%
 1.972
 2.580
 3.156
 3.635
 4.078
80%
 2.333
 2.863
 3.376
 3.844
 4.282
50%
Median WR 		3.059
 3.487
 3.925
 4.512
 5.243
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.357
Oct 1981 		8.738
Oct 1981 		9.118
Oct 1981 		9.499
Oct 1981 		9.879
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.395
Dec 1945 		2.056
Dec 1945 		2.684
Feb 1946 		3.306
Feb 1946 		3.862
Feb 1937
95%
 1.824
 2.395
 2.987
 3.531
 4.003
90%
 2.069
 2.673
 3.163
 3.636
 4.072
80%
 2.366
 2.881
 3.386
 3.829
 4.297
50%
Median WR 		2.934
 3.472
 3.930
 4.486
 5.175
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.357
Oct 1981 		8.738
Oct 1981 		9.118
Oct 1981 		9.499
Oct 1981 		9.879
Oct 1981
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		3.734
Nov 1993 		4.316
Nov 1993 		4.898
Nov 1993 		5.375
Jan 1977 		5.685
Jan 1977
95%
 4.082
 4.623
 5.127
 5.569
 5.923
90%
 4.391
 4.873
 5.247
 5.661
 6.071
80%
 4.677
 5.066
 5.460
 5.872
 6.300
50%
Median WR 		5.188
 5.596
 5.988
 6.384
 6.784
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.357
Oct 1981 		8.738
Oct 1981 		9.118
Oct 1981 		9.499
Oct 1981 		9.879
Oct 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
89.05
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.88
74.26
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.30
73.12
51.41
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.733% 		0.00
95.83
72.58
49.40
41.73
4.00 %
94.15
90% Succ.
4.078% 		5.85
70.50
48.39
41.06
36.83
4.50 %
67.67
32.33
50.13
41.06
36.69
32.33
5.00 %
53.63
50% Succ.
5.243% 		46.37
41.87
36.90
31.38
21.77
5.50 %
44.29
55.71
36.90
30.04
20.97
13.84
6.00 %
36.02
63.98
28.97
19.96
13.37
11.56
6.50 %
28.49
71.51
19.29
13.10
11.42
9.27
7.00 %
18.95
81.05
12.77
11.22
8.40
5.51
7.50 %
12.77
87.23
10.55
7.66
4.91
2.89
8.00 %
9.81
90.19
6.79
4.44
2.49
0.67
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
91.80
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.46
74.44
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.65
73.37
49.35
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.862% 		0.00
96.08
73.01
48.75
41.14
4.00 %
95.01
95% Succ.
4.003% 		4.99
71.94
48.39
39.83
34.24
4.50 %
70.15
29.85
49.46
39.00
34.13
29.01
5.00 %
52.68
50% Succ.
5.175% 		47.32
39.12
34.36
27.59
17.72
5.50 %
41.38
58.62
34.36
25.68
16.05
10.70
6.00 %
32.70
67.30
24.14
14.27
9.87
8.09
6.50 %
23.42
76.58
12.96
9.27
7.97
5.71
7.00 %
12.37
87.63
8.68
7.73
4.88
3.09
7.50 %
8.68
91.32
6.78
4.28
2.73
1.55
8.00 %
5.71
94.29
3.69
2.62
1.55
0.71
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.51
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
87.97
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.34
82.99
60.58
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.685% 		0.00
98.76
76.76
55.19
37.34
6.00 %
92.95
90% Succ.
6.071% 		7.05
71.37
49.38
34.44
28.22
6.50 %
69.71
50% Succ.
6.784% 		30.29
44.81
32.37
27.80
19.92
7.00 %
42.74
57.26
30.29
26.97
17.01
10.79
7.50 %
30.29
69.71
23.65
14.94
9.54
5.39
8.00 %
19.92
80.08
12.86
9.13
5.39
2.49
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
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