Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.589% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 29.99% of cases. In the 23.07% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.55% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.56%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.18%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 2.771 | 3.180 |
7.55 [ 3.48 ] |
-17.56 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.154 Mar 1937 |
2.263 Mar 1937 |
2.373 Mar 1937 |
2.481 Feb 1937 |
2.589 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.399 |
2.497 |
2.602 |
2.703 |
2.819 |
||
90% |
2.502 |
2.622 |
2.747 |
2.865 |
2.978 |
||
80% |
2.657 |
2.789 |
2.915 |
3.040 |
3.153 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.132 |
3.242 |
3.357 |
3.482 |
3.587 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.856 Dec 1873 |
6.955 Dec 1873 |
7.054 Dec 1873 |
7.153 Dec 1873 |
7.252 Dec 1873 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.154 Mar 1937 |
2.263 Mar 1937 |
2.373 Mar 1937 |
2.481 Feb 1937 |
2.589 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.326 |
2.421 |
2.517 |
2.618 |
2.711 |
||
90% |
2.407 |
2.505 |
2.602 |
2.695 |
2.790 |
||
80% |
2.613 |
2.727 |
2.832 |
2.938 |
3.055 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.114 |
3.224 |
3.325 |
3.417 |
3.513 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
4.244 Apr 1926 |
4.393 Apr 1926 |
4.542 Apr 1926 |
4.724 Nov 1924 |
4.915 Nov 1924 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.589% |
0.00 |
99.73
|
98.76
|
94.85
|
90.06
|
3.00 % |
89.17
|
80% Succ. 3.153% |
10.83 |
82.79
|
70.81
|
61.76
|
56.70
|
3.50 % |
54.48
|
50% Succ. 3.587% |
45.52 |
48.71
|
41.61
|
36.20
|
31.94
|
4.00 % |
29.99
|
70.01 |
27.33
|
26.09
|
24.93
|
23.07
|
|
4.50 % |
23.34
|
76.66 |
20.67
|
17.39
|
14.73
|
12.24
|
|
5.00 % |
14.29
|
85.71 |
11.98
|
10.38
|
9.94
|
9.41
|
|
5.50 % |
9.67
|
90.33 |
9.05
|
8.61
|
7.90
|
7.01
|
|
6.00 % |
7.36
|
92.64 |
6.21
|
5.24
|
4.53
|
3.90
|
|
6.50 % |
3.99
|
96.01 |
3.19
|
2.48
|
1.95
|
1.33
|
|
7.00 % |
0.71
|
99.29 |
0.35
|
0.09
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.589% |
0.00 |
99.38
|
97.09
|
90.23
|
85.24
|
3.00 % |
82.12
|
80% Succ. 3.055% |
17.88 |
77.96
|
69.65
|
64.66
|
58.42
|
3.50 % |
51.35
|
50% Succ. 3.513% |
48.65 |
41.37
|
32.64
|
25.99
|
19.33
|
4.00 % |
13.31
|
86.69 |
9.77
|
7.69
|
6.24
|
4.99
|
|
4.50 % |
5.82
|
94.18 |
4.16
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com