Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.36% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.56%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.159%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Mar 2003 |
28 Feb 2023 | 3.046 | 7.159 |
5.36 [ 2.81 ] |
-17.56 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1898 |
0.561 Jul 1901 |
2.078 Jul 1901 |
3.596 Jul 1901 |
4.719 Apr 1911 |
5.089 95% Succ. |
5.226 90% Succ. |
5.496 80% Succ. |
7.083 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.412 |
4.285 |
5.215 |
6.183 |
7.083 | |||||
Average |
3.779 |
4.634 |
5.500 |
6.367 |
7.234 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.555 Oct 1981 |
10.165 Jul 1920 |
10.782 Jul 1920 |
11.399 Jul 1920 |
12.039 Jun 1920 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.738 |
1.167 |
1.888 |
3.412 |
75% |
0.561 |
1.922 |
2.254 |
2.806 |
4.285 |
|
50% |
2.078 |
3.015 |
3.305 |
3.700 |
5.215 |
|
25% |
3.596 |
4.139 |
4.299 |
4.596 |
6.183 |
|
0% |
4.719 |
5.089 |
5.226 |
5.496 |
7.083 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1961 |
1.089 Oct 1961 |
2.595 Oct 1961 |
3.922 May 1965 |
4.842 Sep 1968 |
5.089 95% Succ. |
5.247 90% Succ. |
5.601 80% Succ. |
6.951 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.260 |
4.163 |
5.135 |
6.104 |
6.951 | |||||
Average |
3.610 |
4.488 |
5.367 |
6.246 |
7.125 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.555 Oct 1981 |
10.156 Oct 1981 |
10.758 Oct 1981 |
11.395 Jul 1982 |
12.034 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.004 |
1.442 |
1.907 |
3.260 |
75% |
1.089 |
2.110 |
2.445 |
2.857 |
4.163 |
|
50% |
2.595 |
3.170 |
3.422 |
3.797 |
5.135 |
|
25% |
3.922 |
4.186 |
4.316 |
4.688 |
6.104 |
|
0% |
4.842 |
5.089 |
5.247 |
5.601 |
6.951 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.750 Jan 1999 |
3.613 Mar 1973 |
4.225 Mar 1973 |
4.837 Mar 1973 |
5.450 Mar 1973 |
6.324 95% Succ. |
6.463 90% Succ. |
6.854 80% Succ. |
8.021 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.980 |
5.760 |
6.524 |
7.321 |
8.021 | |||||
Average |
5.186 |
5.921 |
6.655 |
7.389 |
8.123 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.555 Oct 1981 |
10.156 Oct 1981 |
10.758 Oct 1981 |
11.395 Jul 1982 |
12.034 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.750 |
3.030 |
3.169 |
3.548 |
4.980 |
75% |
3.613 |
3.911 |
4.002 |
4.313 |
5.760 |
|
50% |
4.225 |
4.688 |
4.852 |
5.135 |
6.524 |
|
25% |
4.837 |
5.511 |
5.671 |
6.029 |
7.321 |
|
0% |
5.450 |
6.324 |
6.463 |
6.854 |
8.021 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.20
|
77.63
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.18
|
86.01
|
69.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.09
|
75.24
|
57.84
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
84.94
|
64.97
|
48.02
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.79
|
73.41
|
55.32
|
40.20
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.719% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.86
|
61.18
|
46.75
|
34.53
|
5.00 % |
96.91
|
95% Succ. 5.089% |
3.09 |
96.91
|
70.01
|
53.18
|
38.50
|
28.73
|
5.50 % |
79.90
|
20.10 |
79.90
|
59.86
|
45.37
|
31.63
|
21.17
|
|
6.00 % |
69.88
|
30.12 |
69.88
|
52.17
|
35.48
|
25.33
|
16.95
|
|
6.50 % |
59.36
|
40.64 |
59.36
|
43.16
|
29.36
|
19.28
|
13.04
|
|
7.00 % |
50.79
|
50% Succ. 7.083% |
49.21 |
50.79
|
32.70
|
21.74
|
14.43
|
10.46
|
7.50 % |
40.52
|
59.48 |
40.52
|
26.02
|
17.20
|
11.22
|
7.62
|
|
8.00 % |
30.31
|
69.69 |
30.31
|
19.60
|
12.29
|
8.25
|
5.29
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.36
|
77.32
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.76
|
68.57
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.77
|
75.55
|
56.61
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.41
|
64.10
|
45.06
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.44
|
74.82
|
55.05
|
37.15
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.842% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
84.70
|
61.39
|
43.91
|
31.53
|
5.00 % |
96.57
|
95% Succ. 5.089% |
3.43 |
96.57
|
73.99
|
52.24
|
35.38
|
23.31
|
5.50 % |
81.89
|
80% Succ. 5.601% |
18.11 |
81.89
|
59.94
|
43.29
|
27.37
|
16.02
|
6.00 % |
72.11
|
27.89 |
72.11
|
51.09
|
31.95
|
20.50
|
13.01
|
|
6.50 % |
59.31
|
50% Succ. 6.951% |
40.69 |
59.31
|
41.00
|
24.87
|
14.36
|
8.74
|
7.00 % |
49.53
|
50.47 |
49.53
|
29.14
|
17.07
|
9.99
|
6.35
|
|
7.50 % |
37.57
|
62.43 |
37.57
|
21.75
|
12.90
|
7.08
|
3.95
|
|
8.00 % |
26.85
|
73.15 |
26.85
|
14.98
|
8.53
|
4.47
|
2.60
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.57
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
80.89
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.03
|
76.18
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
77.56
|
68.70
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.450% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.17
|
82.83
|
73.96
|
48.75
|
5.50 % |
99.72
|
0.28 |
99.72
|
95.29
|
76.45
|
57.62
|
31.02
|
|
6.00 % |
97.23
|
95% Succ. 6.324% |
2.77 |
97.23
|
80.33
|
65.65
|
40.72
|
24.65
|
6.50 % |
89.75
|
80% Succ. 6.854% |
10.25 |
89.75
|
70.64
|
50.97
|
26.59
|
21.33
|
7.00 % |
74.79
|
25.21 |
74.79
|
58.17
|
32.13
|
21.61
|
16.90
|
|
7.50 % |
63.71
|
36.29 |
63.71
|
42.11
|
23.27
|
18.28
|
10.53
|
|
8.00 % |
50.97
|
49.03 |
50.97
|
26.59
|
19.67
|
11.91
|
6.93
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 30/70 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com