Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.03% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.078%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 2.560 | 3.078 |
7.03 [ 3.01 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.687 Mar 1937 |
1.822 Feb 1937 |
1.949 Aug 1939 |
2.065 Aug 1939 |
2.181 Aug 1939 |
2.344 95% Succ. |
2.560 90% Succ. |
2.781 80% Succ. |
3.217 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.674 |
2.814 |
2.958 |
3.090 |
3.217 | |||||
Average |
2.881 |
3.037 |
3.192 |
3.348 |
3.504 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.455 Feb 1873 |
6.573 Feb 1873 |
6.690 Feb 1873 |
6.808 Feb 1873 |
6.926 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.687 |
1.847 |
1.964 |
2.126 |
2.674 |
75% |
1.822 |
1.976 |
2.110 |
2.286 |
2.814 |
|
50% |
1.949 |
2.103 |
2.258 |
2.451 |
2.958 |
|
25% |
2.065 |
2.221 |
2.407 |
2.616 |
3.090 |
|
0% |
2.181 |
2.344 |
2.560 |
2.781 |
3.217 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.687 Mar 1937 |
1.822 Feb 1937 |
1.949 Aug 1939 |
2.065 Aug 1939 |
2.181 Aug 1939 |
2.253 95% Succ. |
2.317 90% Succ. |
2.516 80% Succ. |
3.166 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.674 |
2.805 |
2.918 |
3.044 |
3.166 | |||||
Average |
2.536 |
2.671 |
2.806 |
2.941 |
3.076 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
3.565 Nov 1923 |
3.810 Nov 1923 |
4.054 Nov 1923 |
4.298 Nov 1923 |
4.543 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.687 |
1.766 |
1.826 |
1.969 |
2.674 |
75% |
1.822 |
1.889 |
1.947 |
2.105 |
2.805 |
|
50% |
1.949 |
2.009 |
2.067 |
2.241 |
2.918 |
|
25% |
2.065 |
2.138 |
2.190 |
2.382 |
3.044 |
|
0% |
2.181 |
2.253 |
2.317 |
2.516 |
3.166 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.181% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.56
|
94.41
|
87.65
|
2.50 % |
91.61
|
90% Succ. 2.560% |
8.39 |
91.61
|
85.30
|
76.65
|
63.39
|
58.07
|
3.00 % |
64.47
|
50% Succ. 3.217% |
35.53 |
64.47
|
55.46
|
46.98
|
36.61
|
28.04
|
3.50 % |
33.18
|
66.82 |
33.18
|
27.86
|
25.79
|
22.36
|
18.85
|
|
4.00 % |
24.26
|
75.74 |
24.26
|
20.74
|
16.86
|
13.53
|
12.08
|
|
4.50 % |
14.34
|
85.66 |
14.34
|
11.54
|
9.74
|
8.93
|
8.30
|
|
5.00 % |
9.47
|
90.53 |
9.47
|
8.57
|
7.75
|
7.03
|
6.40
|
|
5.50 % |
6.76
|
93.24 |
6.76
|
5.86
|
4.87
|
4.60
|
3.97
|
|
6.00 % |
4.15
|
95.85 |
4.15
|
3.43
|
2.98
|
2.43
|
2.07
|
|
6.50 % |
2.07
|
97.93 |
2.07
|
1.44
|
0.63
|
0.36
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.181% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.67
|
87.11
|
77.55
|
2.50 % |
80.67
|
80% Succ. 2.516% |
19.33 |
80.67
|
69.23
|
66.32
|
64.66
|
62.79
|
3.00 % |
62.79
|
50% Succ. 3.166% |
37.21 |
62.79
|
55.51
|
41.16
|
23.28
|
12.27
|
3.50 % |
15.38
|
84.62 |
15.38
|
10.81
|
9.56
|
4.57
|
0.83
|
|
4.00 % |
8.11
|
91.89 |
8.11
|
2.91
|
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.62
|
99.38 |
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com