US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.704% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 39% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 3.84% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 10.639%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Dec 2014
 30 Nov 2024 0.887 10.639 3.84
[ 0.87 ] 		-16.54
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jan 1908 		0.000
Feb 1910 		2.114
May 1911 		5.204
May 1911 		7.704
Jan 1916
95%
 0.000
 1.198
 3.854
 6.325
 8.674
90%
 0.000
 1.812
 4.315
 6.830
 9.423
80%
 0.540
 2.890
 5.348
 7.817
 10.276
50%
Median WR 		3.143
 5.212
 7.278
 9.430
 11.632
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.883
Oct 1981 		12.538
Oct 1981 		14.193
Oct 1981 		15.848
Oct 1981 		17.503
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Oct 1936 		0.000
Sep 1971 		2.737
Oct 1971 		5.767
Jul 1972 		8.350
Dec 1972
95%
 0.000
 1.392
 3.995
 6.582
 9.062
90%
 0.000
 1.910
 4.477
 7.046
 9.547
80%
 0.362
 2.627
 5.114
 7.761
 10.180
50%
Median WR 		3.023
 5.121
 7.182
 9.359
 11.523
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.883
Oct 1981 		12.538
Oct 1981 		14.193
Oct 1981 		15.848
Oct 1981 		17.503
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.090
Nov 2013 		2.881
Nov 2013 		5.672
Nov 2013 		8.088
Jan 1977 		9.645
Jan 1977
95%
 1.068
 3.674
 6.238
 8.542
 10.373
90%
 2.398
 4.555
 6.621
 8.735
 11.008
80%
 2.833
 4.922
 6.982
 9.053
 11.253
50%
Median WR 		4.119
 6.120
 8.032
 10.109
 12.094
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.883
Oct 1981 		12.538
Oct 1981 		14.193
Oct 1981 		15.848
Oct 1981 		17.503
Oct 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
88.08
66.32
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.42
82.70
59.72
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.73
79.57
52.72
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.63
76.56
44.79
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.71
70.83
39.00
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
87.79
62.91
35.13
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
82.29
54.22
31.77
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.65
78.99
45.25
27.31
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
97.28
75.58
39.29
23.38
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
93.06
67.59
35.07
18.29
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
89.00
56.71
30.84
13.66
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.704% 		0.00
82.64
46.35
26.50
10.88
8.00 %
99.07
0.93
78.65
40.16
21.76
7.93
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.27
66.33
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
81.96
60.13
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
77.89
50.97
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.52
75.02
39.41
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.91
70.12
31.82
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.73
64.01
28.49
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
81.50
53.01
25.81
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
77.71
39.87
22.66
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.89
74.56
31.82
19.43
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.93
67.72
28.58
14.25
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
90.56
56.15
24.98
9.16
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
82.05
41.54
22.11
6.29
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
77.89
32.56
18.04
3.89
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
91.48
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
88.77
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
76.51
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.67
62.16
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.93
51.14
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.85
44.70
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
77.96
38.88
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
61.12
32.43
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.71
50.73
27.23
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.68
44.91
21.00
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
78.59
36.80
13.51
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
61.75
30.77
9.77
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
50.73
24.53
7.48
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com