Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.435% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 80.31% of cases. In the 31.79% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.93% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.305%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 3.947 | 6.305 |
5.93 [ 3.33 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.667 Oct 1945 |
1.394 May 1940 |
2.084 May 1940 |
2.773 Nov 1940 |
3.435 Jan 1941 |
|
|
95% |
1.141 |
1.838 |
2.489 |
3.087 |
3.687 |
||
|
90% |
1.354 |
2.039 |
2.709 |
3.313 |
3.829 |
||
|
80% |
1.686 |
2.318 |
2.968 |
3.529 |
4.009 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.708 |
3.143 |
3.554 |
4.083 |
4.712 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.027 Oct 1981 |
8.418 Oct 1981 |
8.810 Oct 1981 |
9.202 Oct 1981 |
9.594 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.667 Oct 1945 |
1.394 May 1940 |
2.084 May 1940 |
2.773 Nov 1940 |
3.435 Jan 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.951 |
1.657 |
2.335 |
2.970 |
3.595 |
||
|
90% |
1.202 |
1.930 |
2.552 |
3.186 |
3.804 |
||
|
80% |
1.602 |
2.246 |
2.915 |
3.499 |
3.959 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.624 |
2.990 |
3.420 |
4.005 |
4.616 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.027 Oct 1981 |
8.418 Oct 1981 |
8.810 Oct 1981 |
9.202 Oct 1981 |
9.594 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
3.100 Nov 1993 |
3.753 Nov 1993 |
4.406 Nov 1993 |
5.059 Nov 1993 |
5.409 Jan 1977 |
|
|
95% |
3.463 |
4.068 |
4.672 |
5.241 |
5.646 |
||
|
90% |
3.742 |
4.322 |
4.880 |
5.292 |
5.736 |
||
|
80% |
4.281 |
4.630 |
5.046 |
5.464 |
5.948 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.735 |
5.179 |
5.604 |
6.038 |
6.487 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.027 Oct 1981 |
8.418 Oct 1981 |
8.810 Oct 1981 |
9.202 Oct 1981 |
9.594 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.60
|
71.77
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.62
|
74.33
|
57.73
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.435% |
0.00 |
96.44
|
78.70
|
53.83
|
43.55
|
| 3.50 % |
99.06
|
95% Succ. 3.687% |
0.94 |
82.06
|
51.14
|
43.01
|
36.22
|
| 4.00 % |
80.31
|
80% Succ. 4.009% |
19.69 |
53.56
|
43.68
|
36.16
|
31.79
|
| 4.50 % |
54.91
|
50% Succ. 4.712% |
45.09 |
44.09
|
36.69
|
31.99
|
21.57
|
| 5.00 % |
45.97
|
54.03 |
37.77
|
31.59
|
20.56
|
14.18
|
|
| 5.50 % |
39.45
|
60.55 |
30.91
|
20.77
|
13.78
|
11.36
|
|
| 6.00 % |
31.38
|
68.62 |
20.77
|
13.44
|
11.09
|
9.21
|
|
| 6.50 % |
21.91
|
78.09 |
13.31
|
11.22
|
8.47
|
5.91
|
|
| 7.00 % |
13.37
|
86.63 |
11.16
|
7.73
|
5.71
|
3.63
|
|
| 7.50 % |
10.75
|
89.25 |
7.53
|
5.04
|
3.29
|
1.75
|
|
| 8.00 % |
7.12
|
92.88 |
4.70
|
2.89
|
1.21
|
0.07
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.35
|
67.90
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.20
|
70.51
|
51.49
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.435% |
0.00 |
93.82
|
73.96
|
49.82
|
42.93
|
| 3.50 % |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 3.595% |
1.66 |
79.90
|
48.39
|
41.74
|
33.06
|
| 4.00 % |
77.17
|
22.83 |
50.18
|
41.74
|
32.94
|
27.94
|
|
| 4.50 % |
53.39
|
50% Succ. 4.616% |
46.61 |
41.26
|
33.53
|
28.06
|
19.26
|
| 5.00 % |
40.78
|
59.22 |
35.08
|
26.99
|
17.00
|
10.94
|
|
| 5.50 % |
35.91
|
64.09 |
25.80
|
16.05
|
10.11
|
8.44
|
|
| 6.00 % |
26.16
|
73.84 |
14.86
|
9.63
|
7.97
|
6.66
|
|
| 6.50 % |
15.22
|
84.78 |
9.27
|
7.97
|
5.59
|
3.45
|
|
| 7.00 % |
8.80
|
91.20 |
7.97
|
4.64
|
3.45
|
2.02
|
|
| 7.50 % |
7.25
|
92.75 |
4.40
|
2.85
|
1.78
|
0.83
|
|
| 8.00 % |
3.92
|
96.08 |
2.73
|
1.55
|
0.36
|
0.12
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.61
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.68
|
86.72
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.76
|
86.72
|
66.39
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.409% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.16
|
59.34
|
38.17
|
| 5.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 5.646% |
0.83 |
78.01
|
56.02
|
35.27
|
29.46
|
| 6.00 % |
78.42
|
50% Succ. 6.487% |
21.58 |
51.87
|
33.61
|
27.80
|
23.24
|
| 6.50 % |
49.79
|
50.21 |
32.37
|
27.80
|
19.50
|
12.03
|
|
| 7.00 % |
30.71
|
69.29 |
27.80
|
16.18
|
12.03
|
7.05
|
|
| 7.50 % |
25.31
|
74.69 |
15.35
|
9.96
|
6.22
|
2.90
|
|
| 8.00 % |
13.69
|
86.31 |
9.54
|
5.39
|
1.24
|
0.41
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
