Last Update: 30 April 2025

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.337% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 26.82% of cases. In the 12.45% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2025), the portfolio has returned 7.59% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.761%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2025
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 May 1975
 30 Apr 2025 4.018 4.761 7.59
[ 3.78 ] 		-16.54
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2025)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2025
Period: May 1925 - Apr 2025
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.274
Jun 1934 		1.625
Nov 1940 		1.867
Nov 1940 		2.107
Aug 1939 		2.337
Aug 1939
95%
 1.477
 1.754
 2.035
 2.319
 2.531
90%
 1.774
 2.033
 2.279
 2.513
 2.772
80%
 2.064
 2.350
 2.616
 2.857
 3.090
50%
Median WR 		2.715
 2.882
 3.061
 3.247
 3.430
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		6.419
Mar 1873 		6.673
Mar 1873 		6.931
Feb 1873 		7.193
Feb 1873 		7.455
Feb 1873
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.274
Jun 1934 		1.625
Nov 1940 		1.867
Nov 1940 		2.107
Aug 1939 		2.337
Aug 1939
95%
 1.429
 1.695
 1.958
 2.189
 2.428
90%
 1.470
 1.744
 2.029
 2.306
 2.530
80%
 1.790
 2.038
 2.250
 2.507
 2.751
50%
Median WR 		2.665
 2.829
 2.998
 3.191
 3.361
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		4.259
Oct 1974 		4.437
Oct 1974 		4.615
Oct 1974 		4.794
Oct 1974 		4.972
Oct 1974
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2025
Period: May 1925 - Apr 2025
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.337% 		0.00
100.00
96.09
90.82
82.60
2.50 %
96.09
95% Succ.
2.531% 		3.91
90.58
83.24
71.51
60.26
3.00 %
83.24
80% Succ.
3.090% 		16.76
69.35
53.15
42.62
33.36
3.50 %
45.73
54.27
35.12
29.21
24.66
20.51
4.00 %
26.82
73.18
23.78
20.27
16.44
12.45
4.50 %
20.59
79.41
15.72
11.57
9.02
8.14
5.00 %
11.09
88.91
9.10
8.22
7.34
5.51
5.50 %
8.14
91.86
7.26
5.51
4.39
3.35
6.00 %
5.59
94.41
4.87
3.51
2.39
1.52
6.50 %
3.83
96.17
2.55
1.60
0.48
0.00
7.00 %
1.92
98.08
0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.337% 		0.00
100.00
91.85
81.03
70.38
2.50 %
91.85
90% Succ.
2.530% 		8.15
80.37
72.21
67.39
62.56
3.00 %
73.04
50% Succ.
3.361% 		26.96
70.05
49.58
29.45
14.48
3.50 %
34.61
65.39
17.14
10.82
7.49
2.83
4.00 %
10.82
89.18
6.49
3.00
1.83
1.16
4.50 %
4.66
95.34
1.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2025

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com