Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.337% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 26.4% of cases. In the 12.2% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.84% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.972%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 Oct 1974 |
30 Sep 2024 | 4.260 | 4.972 |
7.84 [ 3.96 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.274 Jun 1934 |
1.625 Nov 1940 |
1.867 Nov 1940 |
2.107 Aug 1939 |
2.337 Aug 1939 |
|
95% |
1.477 |
1.754 |
2.035 |
2.319 |
2.531 |
||
90% |
1.774 |
2.029 |
2.269 |
2.511 |
2.771 |
||
80% |
2.061 |
2.347 |
2.616 |
2.855 |
3.088 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.707 |
2.879 |
3.056 |
3.244 |
3.425 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.419 Mar 1873 |
6.673 Mar 1873 |
6.931 Feb 1873 |
7.193 Feb 1873 |
7.455 Feb 1873 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.274 Jun 1934 |
1.625 Nov 1940 |
1.867 Nov 1940 |
2.107 Aug 1939 |
2.337 Aug 1939 |
|
95% |
1.429 |
1.695 |
1.958 |
2.189 |
2.428 |
||
90% |
1.470 |
1.744 |
2.029 |
2.306 |
2.530 |
||
80% |
1.790 |
2.038 |
2.250 |
2.507 |
2.751 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.665 |
2.829 |
2.998 |
3.191 |
3.361 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
4.260 Oct 1974 |
4.438 Oct 1974 |
4.616 Oct 1974 |
4.794 Oct 1974 |
4.972 Oct 1974 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.337% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.07
|
90.77
|
82.50
|
2.50 % |
96.07
|
95% Succ. 2.531% |
3.93 |
90.53
|
83.15
|
71.35
|
60.03
|
3.00 % |
83.15
|
80% Succ. 3.088% |
16.85 |
69.18
|
52.89
|
42.30
|
32.99
|
3.50 % |
45.43
|
54.57 |
34.75
|
28.81
|
24.24
|
20.06
|
|
4.00 % |
26.40
|
73.60 |
23.35
|
19.82
|
15.97
|
12.20
|
|
4.50 % |
20.14
|
79.86 |
15.33
|
11.64
|
9.07
|
8.19
|
|
5.00 % |
11.16
|
88.84 |
9.15
|
8.27
|
7.38
|
5.54
|
|
5.50 % |
8.19
|
91.81 |
7.30
|
5.54
|
4.41
|
3.37
|
|
6.00 % |
5.62
|
94.38 |
4.90
|
3.53
|
2.41
|
1.52
|
|
6.50 % |
3.85
|
96.15 |
2.57
|
1.61
|
0.48
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
1.93
|
98.07 |
0.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.337% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.85
|
81.03
|
70.38
|
2.50 % |
91.85
|
90% Succ. 2.530% |
8.15 |
80.37
|
72.21
|
67.39
|
62.56
|
3.00 % |
73.04
|
50% Succ. 3.361% |
26.96 |
70.05
|
49.58
|
29.45
|
14.48
|
3.50 % |
34.61
|
65.39 |
17.14
|
10.82
|
7.49
|
1.66
|
|
4.00 % |
10.82
|
89.18 |
6.49
|
2.33
|
0.67
|
0.50
|
|
4.50 % |
4.66
|
95.34 |
0.50
|
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com