US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio: 50-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.337% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 25.71% of cases. In the 12.12% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.47% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.862%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 May 1973
 30 Apr 2023 3.130 3.862 7.47
[ 3.38 ] 		-16.54
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.274
Jun 1934 		1.625
Nov 1940 		1.867
Nov 1940 		2.107
Aug 1939 		2.337
Aug 1939 		2.531
95% Succ. 		2.768
90% Succ. 		3.077
80% Succ. 		3.418
50% Succ.
Median 2.691
 2.870
 3.044
 3.234
 3.418
Average 2.856
 3.081
 3.306
 3.531
 3.756
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.419
Mar 1873 		6.673
Mar 1873 		6.931
Feb 1873 		7.193
Feb 1873 		7.455
Feb 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.274
 1.474
 1.766
 2.054
 2.691
75% 1.625
 1.750
 2.024
 2.338
 2.870
50% 1.867
 2.029
 2.255
 2.604
 3.044
25% 2.107
 2.317
 2.508
 2.844
 3.234
0% 2.337
 2.531
 2.768
 3.077
 3.418
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.274
Jun 1934 		1.625
Nov 1940 		1.867
Nov 1940 		2.107
Aug 1939 		2.337
Aug 1939 		2.428
95% Succ. 		2.530
90% Succ. 		2.751
80% Succ. 		3.361
50% Succ.
Median 2.665
 2.829
 2.998
 3.191
 3.361
Average 2.468
 2.689
 2.910
 3.131
 3.352
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		3.983
Nov 1923 		4.270
Nov 1923 		4.558
Nov 1923 		4.845
Nov 1923 		5.133
Nov 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.274
 1.429
 1.470
 1.790
 2.665
75% 1.625
 1.695
 1.744
 2.038
 2.829
50% 1.867
 1.958
 2.029
 2.250
 2.998
25% 2.107
 2.189
 2.306
 2.507
 3.191
0% 2.337
 2.428
 2.530
 2.751
 3.361
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.337% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
96.01
90.64
82.26
2.50 %
96.01
95% Succ.
2.531% 		3.99
96.01
90.40
82.91
70.95
59.48
3.00 %
82.91
80% Succ.
3.077% 		17.09
82.91
68.76
52.24
41.50
32.06
3.50 %
44.67
55.33
44.67
33.85
27.83
23.60
19.77
4.00 %
25.71
74.29
25.71
23.03
19.61
15.87
12.12
4.50 %
20.02
79.98
20.02
15.30
11.64
9.19
8.30
5.00 %
11.31
88.69
11.31
9.28
8.38
7.49
5.61
5.50 %
8.30
91.70
8.30
7.40
5.61
4.48
3.42
6.00 %
5.70
94.30
5.70
4.96
3.58
2.44
1.55
6.50 %
3.91
96.09
3.91
2.60
1.63
0.49
0.00
7.00 %
1.95
98.05
1.95
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.337% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
91.85
81.03
70.38
2.50 %
91.85
90% Succ.
2.530% 		8.15
91.85
80.37
72.21
67.39
62.56
3.00 %
73.04
50% Succ.
3.361% 		26.96
73.04
70.05
49.58
29.45
14.48
3.50 %
34.61
65.39
34.61
17.14
10.82
8.32
2.83
4.00 %
11.48
88.52
11.48
7.99
4.16
1.83
0.00
4.50 %
6.66
93.34
6.66
2.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
1.16
98.84
1.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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