Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.07% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.498%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.195 | 6.498 |
7.07 [ 4.10 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.227 Oct 1941 |
0.866 Apr 1940 |
1.493 Apr 1940 |
2.119 Apr 1940 |
2.726 Jan 1941 |
2.973 95% Succ. |
3.178 90% Succ. |
3.437 80% Succ. |
3.828 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.676 |
2.966 |
3.254 |
3.527 |
3.828 | |||||
Average |
3.028 |
3.363 |
3.698 |
4.033 |
4.367 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.526 Oct 1981 |
7.767 Oct 1981 |
8.009 Oct 1981 |
8.251 Oct 1981 |
8.493 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.227 |
1.057 |
1.306 |
2.222 |
2.676 |
75% |
0.866 |
1.545 |
1.793 |
2.538 |
2.966 |
|
50% |
1.493 |
2.033 |
2.295 |
2.846 |
3.254 |
|
25% |
2.119 |
2.494 |
2.794 |
3.162 |
3.527 |
|
0% |
2.726 |
2.973 |
3.178 |
3.437 |
3.828 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.227 Oct 1941 |
0.866 Apr 1940 |
1.493 Apr 1940 |
2.119 Apr 1940 |
2.726 Jan 1941 |
2.851 95% Succ. |
2.996 90% Succ. |
3.349 80% Succ. |
3.752 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.693 |
2.960 |
3.219 |
3.474 |
3.752 | |||||
Average |
2.810 |
3.137 |
3.465 |
3.793 |
4.120 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.526 Oct 1981 |
7.767 Oct 1981 |
8.009 Oct 1981 |
8.251 Oct 1981 |
8.493 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.227 |
0.712 |
1.063 |
1.427 |
2.693 |
75% |
0.866 |
1.266 |
1.566 |
1.853 |
2.960 |
|
50% |
1.493 |
1.821 |
2.050 |
2.353 |
3.219 |
|
25% |
2.119 |
2.375 |
2.507 |
2.869 |
3.474 |
|
0% |
2.726 |
2.851 |
2.996 |
3.349 |
3.752 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.63
|
88.73
|
87.32
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.726% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.81
|
88.58
|
81.99
|
63.16
|
3.00 % |
94.59
|
90% Succ. 3.178% |
5.41 |
94.59
|
85.92
|
69.09
|
47.81
|
33.43
|
3.50 % |
75.32
|
50% Succ. 3.828% |
24.68 |
75.32
|
51.52
|
38.84
|
30.54
|
25.20
|
4.00 % |
42.92
|
57.08 |
42.92
|
34.99
|
28.84
|
24.09
|
19.42
|
|
4.50 % |
32.47
|
67.53 |
32.47
|
28.54
|
23.20
|
16.60
|
13.12
|
|
5.00 % |
27.28
|
72.72 |
27.28
|
20.24
|
14.23
|
12.45
|
11.42
|
|
5.50 % |
17.94
|
82.06 |
17.94
|
12.75
|
11.71
|
10.08
|
8.52
|
|
6.00 % |
12.23
|
87.77 |
12.23
|
10.67
|
9.34
|
7.26
|
6.23
|
|
6.50 % |
10.01
|
89.99 |
10.01
|
8.08
|
6.45
|
5.19
|
3.93
|
|
7.00 % |
6.82
|
93.18 |
6.82
|
5.34
|
4.00
|
2.97
|
1.33
|
|
7.50 % |
4.08
|
95.92 |
4.08
|
3.04
|
1.56
|
0.37
|
0.07
|
|
8.00 % |
1.85
|
98.15 |
1.85
|
0.44
|
0.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.82
|
78.92
|
77.53
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.726% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.29
|
78.64
|
76.01
|
66.71
|
3.00 % |
89.88
|
80% Succ. 3.349% |
10.12 |
89.88
|
77.81
|
70.60
|
46.32
|
31.76
|
3.50 % |
70.18
|
50% Succ. 3.752% |
29.82 |
70.18
|
48.13
|
33.84
|
26.77
|
22.75
|
4.00 % |
35.51
|
64.49 |
35.51
|
30.10
|
23.44
|
21.08
|
16.78
|
|
4.50 % |
26.91
|
73.09 |
26.91
|
22.19
|
19.83
|
12.90
|
8.88
|
|
5.00 % |
20.53
|
79.47 |
20.53
|
14.42
|
9.71
|
7.91
|
7.35
|
|
5.50 % |
10.82
|
89.18 |
10.82
|
7.63
|
7.21
|
6.24
|
5.27
|
|
6.00 % |
7.21
|
92.79 |
7.21
|
6.10
|
5.55
|
4.58
|
4.02
|
|
6.50 % |
5.83
|
94.17 |
5.83
|
4.72
|
4.02
|
3.47
|
2.64
|
|
7.00 % |
3.88
|
96.12 |
3.88
|
3.47
|
2.64
|
1.94
|
0.69
|
|
7.50 % |
2.64
|
97.36 |
2.64
|
1.94
|
0.83
|
0.28
|
0.14
|
|
8.00 % |
1.11
|
98.89 |
1.11
|
0.28
|
0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com