Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.726% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 40 years in the 43.67% of cases. In the 20.48% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.06% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.792%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 Nov 1984 |
31 Oct 2024 | 5.464 | 6.792 |
7.06 [ 4.16 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.227 Oct 1941 |
0.866 Apr 1940 |
1.493 Apr 1940 |
2.119 Apr 1940 |
2.726 Jan 1941 |
|
95% |
1.057 |
1.547 |
2.033 |
2.495 |
2.975 |
||
90% |
1.313 |
1.795 |
2.305 |
2.806 |
3.183 |
||
80% |
2.233 |
2.540 |
2.850 |
3.166 |
3.439 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.685 |
2.975 |
3.267 |
3.549 |
3.839 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.526 Oct 1981 |
7.767 Oct 1981 |
8.009 Oct 1981 |
8.251 Oct 1981 |
8.493 Oct 1981 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.227 Oct 1941 |
0.866 Apr 1940 |
1.493 Apr 1940 |
2.119 Apr 1940 |
2.726 Jan 1941 |
|
95% |
0.712 |
1.266 |
1.821 |
2.375 |
2.851 |
||
90% |
1.063 |
1.566 |
2.050 |
2.507 |
2.996 |
||
80% |
1.427 |
1.853 |
2.353 |
2.869 |
3.349 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.693 |
2.960 |
3.219 |
3.474 |
3.752 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.526 Oct 1981 |
7.767 Oct 1981 |
8.009 Oct 1981 |
8.251 Oct 1981 |
8.493 Oct 1981 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.68
|
88.88
|
87.49
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.726% |
0.00 |
94.88
|
88.73
|
82.22
|
63.64
|
3.00 % |
94.66
|
90% Succ. 3.183% |
5.34 |
86.10
|
69.50
|
48.50
|
34.31
|
3.50 % |
75.64
|
50% Succ. 3.839% |
24.36 |
52.16
|
39.65
|
31.46
|
26.19
|
4.00 % |
43.67
|
56.33 |
35.84
|
29.77
|
25.09
|
20.48
|
|
4.50 % |
33.36
|
66.64 |
29.48
|
24.21
|
17.70
|
14.26
|
|
5.00 % |
28.24
|
71.76 |
21.29
|
15.36
|
13.61
|
12.58
|
|
5.50 % |
19.02
|
80.98 |
13.90
|
12.87
|
11.27
|
9.22
|
|
6.00 % |
13.39
|
86.61 |
11.85
|
10.39
|
7.68
|
6.29
|
|
6.50 % |
11.19
|
88.81 |
8.71
|
6.58
|
5.12
|
3.88
|
|
7.00 % |
7.17
|
92.83 |
5.41
|
3.95
|
2.93
|
1.32
|
|
7.50 % |
4.02
|
95.98 |
3.00
|
1.54
|
0.37
|
0.07
|
|
8.00 % |
1.83
|
98.17 |
0.44
|
0.07
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.82
|
78.92
|
77.53
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.726% |
0.00 |
90.29
|
78.64
|
76.01
|
66.71
|
3.00 % |
89.88
|
80% Succ. 3.349% |
10.12 |
77.81
|
70.60
|
46.32
|
31.76
|
3.50 % |
70.18
|
50% Succ. 3.752% |
29.82 |
48.13
|
33.84
|
26.77
|
22.75
|
4.00 % |
35.51
|
64.49 |
30.10
|
23.44
|
21.08
|
17.20
|
|
4.50 % |
26.91
|
73.09 |
22.19
|
19.83
|
13.87
|
11.37
|
|
5.00 % |
20.53
|
79.47 |
14.42
|
11.37
|
10.40
|
9.85
|
|
5.50 % |
11.37
|
88.63 |
10.12
|
9.71
|
8.74
|
6.80
|
|
6.00 % |
9.71
|
90.29 |
8.60
|
7.77
|
5.55
|
4.30
|
|
6.50 % |
8.32
|
91.68 |
6.10
|
4.44
|
3.47
|
2.64
|
|
7.00 % |
4.72
|
95.28 |
3.74
|
2.64
|
1.94
|
0.69
|
|
7.50 % |
2.64
|
97.36 |
1.94
|
0.83
|
0.28
|
0.14
|
|
8.00 % |
1.11
|
98.89 |
0.28
|
0.14
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com