Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.601% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 35.06% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.46% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -16.54%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.295%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2004 |
31 Mar 2024 | 1.908 | 6.295 |
4.46 [ 1.82 ] |
-16.54 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Aug 1898 |
0.207 Jul 1900 |
1.967 May 1901 |
3.498 May 1901 |
4.601 Apr 1911 |
|
|
95% |
0.360 |
1.536 |
2.707 |
3.871 |
4.899 |
||
|
90% |
0.696 |
1.824 |
2.936 |
4.021 |
5.038 |
||
|
80% |
1.227 |
2.331 |
3.342 |
4.335 |
5.294 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.881 |
3.823 |
4.761 |
5.691 |
6.634 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.204 Oct 1981 |
9.832 Oct 1981 |
10.461 Oct 1981 |
11.089 Oct 1981 |
11.717 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Apr 1960 |
0.714 Oct 1961 |
2.281 Oct 1961 |
3.598 Jan 1940 |
4.646 Jan 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.515 |
1.628 |
2.740 |
3.848 |
4.860 |
||
|
90% |
0.728 |
1.829 |
2.936 |
4.004 |
4.993 |
||
|
80% |
1.196 |
2.315 |
3.371 |
4.351 |
5.303 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.746 |
3.702 |
4.632 |
5.588 |
6.558 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.204 Oct 1981 |
9.832 Oct 1981 |
10.461 Oct 1981 |
11.089 Oct 1981 |
11.717 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.693 Nov 2003 |
2.876 Nov 2003 |
4.060 Nov 2003 |
5.187 Mar 2004 |
6.196 Apr 1974 |
|
|
95% |
2.328 |
3.430 |
4.484 |
5.534 |
6.444 |
||
|
90% |
2.848 |
3.777 |
4.675 |
5.595 |
6.512 |
||
|
80% |
3.175 |
4.047 |
4.889 |
5.769 |
6.648 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.593 |
5.392 |
6.206 |
6.972 |
7.756 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.204 Oct 1981 |
9.832 Oct 1981 |
10.461 Oct 1981 |
11.089 Oct 1981 |
11.717 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.88
|
85.81
|
66.13
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.69
|
76.13
|
58.63
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.25
|
65.50
|
46.81
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.94
|
74.56
|
55.38
|
39.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.69
|
62.69
|
45.50
|
35.06
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.601% |
0.00 |
73.38
|
54.31
|
38.44
|
29.63
|
| 5.00 % |
91.44
|
90% Succ. 5.038% |
8.56 |
61.75
|
45.31
|
32.13
|
22.50
|
| 5.50 % |
72.31
|
27.69 |
54.31
|
37.63
|
27.25
|
17.69
|
|
| 6.00 % |
63.69
|
36.31 |
44.81
|
30.25
|
19.94
|
12.94
|
|
| 6.50 % |
53.25
|
50% Succ. 6.634% |
46.75 |
36.31
|
24.38
|
15.13
|
10.88
|
| 7.00 % |
42.63
|
57.38 |
28.69
|
18.31
|
11.19
|
8.25
|
|
| 7.50 % |
35.50
|
64.50 |
21.56
|
12.81
|
9.13
|
5.75
|
|
| 8.00 % |
26.69
|
73.31 |
16.13
|
9.94
|
6.69
|
3.56
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
86.37
|
62.75
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.06
|
74.61
|
55.36
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.51
|
62.85
|
41.42
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
74.09
|
53.69
|
33.82
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
90.11
|
61.50
|
39.75
|
31.22
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.646% |
0.00 |
75.03
|
52.86
|
33.61
|
23.73
|
| 5.00 % |
89.70
|
80% Succ. 5.303% |
10.30 |
61.81
|
39.65
|
27.26
|
15.50
|
| 5.50 % |
73.26
|
26.74 |
53.17
|
32.78
|
20.92
|
11.34
|
|
| 6.00 % |
64.62
|
35.38 |
39.23
|
24.97
|
13.42
|
8.01
|
|
| 6.50 % |
51.82
|
50% Succ. 6.558% |
48.18 |
31.43
|
17.79
|
9.47
|
6.87
|
| 7.00 % |
36.11
|
63.89 |
23.20
|
12.07
|
6.97
|
4.27
|
|
| 7.50 % |
31.32
|
68.68 |
15.40
|
7.60
|
5.10
|
2.81
|
|
| 8.00 % |
21.64
|
78.36 |
10.30
|
5.83
|
3.33
|
1.66
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.63
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
86.70
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.63
|
77.56
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
80.61
|
71.75
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.18
|
76.73
|
53.46
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
78.95
|
61.22
|
33.24
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.84
|
70.36
|
45.98
|
24.93
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.196% |
0.00 |
76.73
|
54.29
|
27.70
|
21.33
|
| 6.50 % |
90.30
|
90% Succ. 6.512% |
9.70 |
62.88
|
37.40
|
21.88
|
18.28
|
| 7.00 % |
67.04
|
32.96 |
49.31
|
24.38
|
18.56
|
11.36
|
|
| 7.50 % |
58.73
|
50% Succ. 7.756% |
41.27 |
31.02
|
19.94
|
13.57
|
7.48
|
| 8.00 % |
42.38
|
57.62 |
20.50
|
15.51
|
8.86
|
4.43
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
