US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 31 May 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.461% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 51.96% of cases. In the 14.17% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: May 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.3% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.346%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Jun 1994
31 May 2024 2.130 5.346 4.30
[ 1.71 ]
-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
May 1890
0.000
Jun 1939
0.753
May 1940
1.637
Nov 1940
2.461
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.339
1.175
1.983
2.812
90%
0.000
0.539
1.392
2.242
3.058
80%
0.337
1.121
1.899
2.685
3.464
50%
Median WR
1.902
2.396
2.939
3.499
4.079
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
7.556
Apr 1873
8.006
Mar 1873
8.474
Mar 1873
8.941
Mar 1873
9.409
Mar 1873
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Oct 1932
0.000
Jun 1939
0.753
May 1940
1.637
Nov 1940
2.461
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.208
1.048
1.874
2.696
90%
0.000
0.383
1.208
2.029
2.825
80%
0.000
0.577
1.440
2.343
3.198
50%
Median WR
1.679
2.253
2.812
3.312
3.807
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
7.271
Oct 1981
7.691
Oct 1981
8.110
Oct 1981
8.530
Oct 1981
8.949
Oct 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
1.685
Nov 1993
2.514
Nov 1993
3.342
Nov 1993
4.171
Nov 1993
4.809
Dec 1976
95%
2.100
2.881
3.643
4.404
5.004
90%
2.596
3.306
4.017
4.546
5.043
80%
3.417
3.834
4.252
4.680
5.157
50%
Median WR
3.741
4.273
4.815
5.330
5.867
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
7.271
Oct 1981
7.691
Oct 1981
8.110
Oct 1981
8.530
Oct 1981
8.949
Oct 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.461%
0.00
94.74
77.80
66.46
45.61
2.50 %
99.39
95% Succ.
2.812%
0.61
84.95
70.11
46.83
34.08
3.00 %
90.89
90% Succ.
3.058%
9.11
72.94
48.11
35.43
28.14
3.50 %
78.07
21.93
49.93
39.00
28.68
21.66
4.00 %
51.96
50% Succ.
4.079%
48.04
42.31
29.82
22.27
14.17
4.50 %
44.47
55.53
33.47
23.01
14.51
10.32
5.00 %
38.73
61.27
23.75
14.98
10.53
8.57
5.50 %
26.52
73.48
16.13
11.00
8.70
5.87
6.00 %
17.48
82.52
11.74
8.70
5.87
4.86
6.50 %
12.75
87.25
8.77
6.01
4.66
3.04
7.00 %
8.77
91.23
6.01
4.32
2.63
1.69
7.50 %
6.07
93.93
3.98
2.56
1.55
0.13
8.00 %
3.85
96.15
2.09
1.28
0.13
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.461%
0.00
90.73
68.25
59.93
41.14
2.50 %
98.93
95% Succ.
2.696%
1.07
76.10
62.43
42.93
33.06
3.00 %
83.95
80% Succ.
3.198%
16.05
64.21
45.78
31.27
25.92
3.50 %
71.11
50% Succ.
3.807%
28.89
45.78
34.84
25.80
19.74
4.00 %
46.85
53.15
38.88
26.04
19.02
10.70
4.50 %
38.76
61.24
29.61
18.91
10.58
8.32
5.00 %
34.72
65.28
19.14
10.58
8.20
7.25
5.50 %
20.10
79.90
10.70
8.32
7.02
3.57
6.00 %
11.53
88.47
8.09
6.66
3.57
2.97
6.50 %
8.09
91.91
6.18
3.57
2.62
1.19
7.00 %
5.71
94.29
3.45
2.38
0.95
0.24
7.50 %
3.21
96.79
2.02
0.83
0.24
0.00
8.00 %
2.02
97.98
0.48
0.24
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.27
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
90.04
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
91.70
87.55
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.51
89.21
68.88
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.04
66.39
37.34
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.809%
0.00
92.12
65.98
36.93
29.05
5.00 %
95.02
95% Succ.
5.004%
4.98
66.80
36.93
28.63
25.31
5.50 %
68.46
50% Succ.
5.867%
31.54
37.34
29.05
24.48
12.45
6.00 %
40.25
59.75
28.22
23.24
12.45
10.37
6.50 %
28.22
71.78
21.58
12.45
9.13
4.15
7.00 %
19.92
80.08
12.03
8.30
3.32
0.83
7.50 %
11.20
88.80
7.05
2.90
0.83
0.00
8.00 %
7.05
92.95
1.66
0.83
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com