Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.66% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 97.38% of cases. In the 25.06% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 2.85% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.761%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2004 |
31 Mar 2024 | 0.286 | 5.761 |
2.85 [ 0.25 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 May 1897 |
0.000 Jan 1899 |
0.947 Aug 1939 |
2.376 Aug 1939 |
3.660 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.154 |
1.632 |
2.973 |
4.156 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.468 |
1.821 |
3.315 |
4.600 |
||
|
80% |
0.034 |
1.268 |
2.475 |
3.662 |
4.821 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.105 |
2.937 |
3.865 |
4.832 |
5.920 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.560 Apr 1873 |
9.268 Mar 1873 |
9.994 Mar 1873 |
10.720 Mar 1873 |
11.445 Mar 1873 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Sep 1938 |
0.947 Aug 1939 |
2.376 Aug 1939 |
3.660 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.088 |
1.529 |
2.834 |
4.025 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.364 |
1.742 |
2.994 |
4.245 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.721 |
2.188 |
3.506 |
4.739 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.550 |
2.552 |
3.482 |
4.487 |
5.625 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.399 Oct 1981 |
9.089 Oct 1981 |
9.779 Oct 1981 |
10.469 Oct 1981 |
11.158 Oct 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.110 Nov 2003 |
1.549 Nov 2003 |
2.985 Oct 2003 |
4.392 Apr 2004 |
5.761 Apr 2004 |
|
|
95% |
0.649 |
1.989 |
3.329 |
4.669 |
5.985 |
||
|
90% |
2.168 |
3.217 |
4.260 |
5.263 |
6.138 |
||
|
80% |
2.772 |
3.748 |
4.649 |
5.497 |
6.308 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
3.694 |
4.549 |
5.416 |
6.293 |
7.149 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.399 Oct 1981 |
9.089 Oct 1981 |
9.779 Oct 1981 |
10.469 Oct 1981 |
11.158 Oct 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.69
|
63.81
|
52.75
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.38
|
79.63
|
56.13
|
42.75
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.69
|
66.75
|
49.44
|
35.94
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.660% |
0.00 |
86.13
|
53.38
|
43.75
|
29.94
|
| 4.00 % |
97.38
|
95% Succ. 4.156% |
2.63 |
68.63
|
48.50
|
35.56
|
25.06
|
| 4.50 % |
92.25
|
90% Succ. 4.600% |
7.75 |
52.75
|
44.38
|
28.69
|
16.88
|
| 5.00 % |
72.38
|
27.63 |
48.50
|
35.25
|
23.13
|
13.06
|
|
| 5.50 % |
55.00
|
50% Succ. 5.920% |
45.00 |
43.75
|
27.31
|
15.19
|
10.88
|
| 6.00 % |
49.44
|
50.56 |
34.94
|
21.25
|
12.25
|
8.75
|
|
| 6.50 % |
42.69
|
57.31 |
27.00
|
13.94
|
9.63
|
6.38
|
|
| 7.00 % |
34.69
|
65.31 |
19.38
|
11.38
|
7.38
|
4.38
|
|
| 7.50 % |
26.63
|
73.38 |
12.94
|
8.44
|
5.25
|
2.88
|
|
| 8.00 % |
18.44
|
81.56 |
10.13
|
5.75
|
3.50
|
1.63
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
81.48
|
57.65
|
47.55
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.29
|
73.99
|
50.16
|
38.61
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
89.49
|
62.43
|
45.58
|
31.95
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.660% |
0.00 |
80.23
|
49.95
|
40.06
|
24.66
|
| 4.00 % |
95.63
|
95% Succ. 4.025% |
4.37 |
65.45
|
44.22
|
31.53
|
17.79
|
| 4.50 % |
87.83
|
80% Succ. 4.739% |
12.17 |
49.84
|
40.17
|
23.00
|
9.68
|
| 5.00 % |
70.76
|
29.24 |
43.91
|
30.70
|
15.61
|
7.49
|
|
| 5.50 % |
53.28
|
50% Succ. 5.625% |
46.72 |
38.40
|
21.33
|
8.12
|
6.66
|
| 6.00 % |
45.47
|
54.53 |
30.18
|
13.63
|
6.97
|
4.79
|
|
| 6.50 % |
36.84
|
63.16 |
22.06
|
7.60
|
5.62
|
2.91
|
|
| 7.00 % |
29.45
|
70.55 |
11.65
|
6.66
|
3.75
|
1.87
|
|
| 7.50 % |
22.06
|
77.94 |
7.18
|
4.68
|
2.39
|
0.83
|
|
| 8.00 % |
11.97
|
88.03 |
5.83
|
2.81
|
1.56
|
0.31
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.74
|
91.41
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.35
|
84.49
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.45
|
91.41
|
75.07
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.46
|
85.04
|
56.79
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.69
|
70.91
|
41.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.51
|
85.60
|
52.08
|
25.76
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.07
|
62.05
|
35.46
|
19.94
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.761% |
0.00 |
79.78
|
46.54
|
21.61
|
17.73
|
| 6.00 % |
94.18
|
90% Succ. 6.138% |
5.82 |
59.28
|
30.19
|
18.56
|
12.74
|
| 6.50 % |
74.24
|
25.76 |
41.27
|
20.22
|
14.96
|
7.76
|
|
| 7.00 % |
55.96
|
50% Succ. 7.149% |
44.04 |
24.10
|
17.73
|
9.97
|
4.99
|
| 7.50 % |
37.95
|
62.05 |
19.11
|
12.47
|
6.37
|
2.22
|
|
| 8.00 % |
21.05
|
78.95 |
15.51
|
7.48
|
4.16
|
0.83
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 0/100 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
