Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.25% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 14.69% of cases. In the 8% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 70 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 70 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.08% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -8.52%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.502%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
70 Years 1 Mar 1953
 28 Feb 2023 1.622 2.502 5.08
[ 1.50 ] 		-8.52
Apr 1971 - Jul 1971
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.345
May 1911 		0.691
May 1911 		0.951
Jun 1933 		1.100
Jun 1933 		1.250
Jun 1933 		1.313
95% Succ. 		1.359
90% Succ. 		1.729
80% Succ. 		2.169
50% Succ.
Median 1.306
 1.508
 1.708
 1.929
 2.169
Average 1.739
 1.955
 2.170
 2.386
 2.601
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.672
Apr 1872 		6.784
Apr 1872 		6.896
Apr 1872 		7.008
Apr 1872 		7.120
Apr 1872
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.345
 0.681
 0.709
 0.789
 1.306
75% 0.691
 0.844
 0.879
 1.041
 1.508
50% 0.951
 1.010
 1.060
 1.279
 1.708
25% 1.100
 1.159
 1.210
 1.482
 1.929
0% 1.250
 1.313
 1.359
 1.729
 2.169
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.653
Jun 1933 		0.802
Jun 1933 		0.951
Jun 1933 		1.100
Jun 1933 		1.250
Jun 1933 		1.280
95% Succ. 		1.307
90% Succ. 		1.324
80% Succ. 		1.659
50% Succ.
Median 1.012
 1.174
 1.337
 1.498
 1.659
Average 1.115
 1.281
 1.447
 1.614
 1.780
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		1.717
Jun 1951 		1.904
Dec 1951 		2.095
Dec 1951 		2.298
Oct 1952 		2.515
Oct 1952
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.653
 0.677
 0.694
 0.720
 1.012
75% 0.802
 0.829
 0.847
 0.871
 1.174
50% 0.951
 0.981
 1.001
 1.022
 1.337
25% 1.100
 1.132
 1.153
 1.172
 1.498
0% 1.250
 1.280
 1.307
 1.324
 1.659
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
67.17
50% Succ.
2.169% 		32.83
67.17
44.48
33.94
28.17
23.51
2.50 %
31.71
68.29
31.71
27.86
23.71
19.45
17.12
3.00 %
24.32
75.68
24.32
20.06
17.22
16.72
15.20
3.50 %
17.33
82.67
17.33
16.62
14.79
13.17
10.94
4.00 %
14.69
85.31
14.69
12.77
10.94
8.41
8.00
4.50 %
10.64
89.36
10.64
8.00
7.50
7.29
6.48
5.00 %
7.19
92.81
7.19
6.48
5.88
5.67
5.17
5.50 %
5.27
94.73
5.27
4.86
4.66
4.36
4.15
6.00 %
4.15
95.85
4.15
3.85
3.65
3.34
2.74
6.50 %
2.43
97.57
2.43
2.03
1.52
1.22
0.71
7.00 %
0.51
99.49
0.51
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
41.27
58.73
41.27
22.44
7.20
0.00
0.00
2.50 %
0.55
99.45
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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