Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2023

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.25% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 14.56% of cases. In the 7.93% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 70 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 70 years (last update: November 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.08% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -8.52%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.487%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Nov 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
70 Years 1 Dec 1953
 30 Nov 2023 1.600 2.487 5.08
[ 1.48 ] 		-8.52
Apr 1971 - Jul 1971
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.345
May 1911 		0.691
May 1911 		0.951
Jun 1933 		1.100
Jun 1933 		1.250
Jun 1933
95%
 0.681
 0.844
 1.010
 1.159
 1.313
90%
 0.709
 0.880
 1.060
 1.214
 1.367
80%
 0.794
 1.043
 1.280
 1.487
 1.731
50%
Median WR 		1.319
 1.515
 1.715
 1.941
 2.172
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		6.672
Apr 1872 		6.784
Apr 1872 		6.896
Apr 1872 		7.008
Apr 1872 		7.120
Apr 1872
Period: Dec 1923 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.653
Jun 1933 		0.802
Jun 1933 		0.951
Jun 1933 		1.100
Jun 1933 		1.250
Jun 1933
95%
 0.677
 0.829
 0.981
 1.132
 1.280
90%
 0.694
 0.847
 1.001
 1.153
 1.307
80%
 0.720
 0.871
 1.022
 1.172
 1.324
50%
Median WR 		1.012
 1.174
 1.337
 1.498
 1.659
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		1.717
Jun 1951 		1.926
Jul 1953 		2.149
Jul 1953 		2.371
Jul 1953 		2.594
Jul 1953
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
67.47
50% Succ.
2.172% 		32.53
44.98
34.54
27.91
23.29
2.50 %
32.13
67.87
27.61
23.49
19.28
16.97
3.00 %
24.10
75.90
19.88
17.07
16.57
15.06
3.50 %
17.17
82.83
16.47
14.66
13.05
10.84
4.00 %
14.56
85.44
12.65
10.84
8.33
7.93
4.50 %
10.54
89.46
7.93
7.43
7.23
6.43
5.00 %
7.13
92.87
6.43
5.82
5.62
5.12
5.50 %
5.22
94.78
4.82
4.62
4.32
4.12
6.00 %
4.12
95.88
3.82
3.61
3.31
2.71
6.50 %
2.41
97.59
2.01
1.51
1.20
0.70
7.00 %
0.50
99.50
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Dec 1923 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
41.27
58.73
22.44
9.70
0.00
0.00
2.50 %
2.49
97.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com