Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.462% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 94.22% of cases. In the 19.78% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 1.82% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.951%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Dec 2004 |
30 Nov 2024 | 0.000 | 4.951 |
1.82 [ -0.70 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Sep 1898 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.037 |
2.497 |
3.981 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.520 |
1.804 |
2.932 |
4.150 |
||
|
80% |
0.412 |
1.633 |
2.885 |
4.064 |
5.114 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.772 |
2.723 |
3.702 |
4.735 |
5.854 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.544 Apr 1872 |
10.089 Apr 1872 |
10.699 Feb 1873 |
11.342 Feb 1873 |
11.985 Feb 1873 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Aug 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.985 |
2.429 |
3.814 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.066 |
2.534 |
4.004 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.677 |
1.974 |
3.483 |
4.927 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.166 |
2.317 |
3.439 |
4.528 |
5.697 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Nov 2001 |
0.419 Jul 2003 |
1.919 Jul 2003 |
3.419 Jan 2004 |
4.879 Jan 2004 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.542 |
2.016 |
3.493 |
4.973 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
1.214 |
2.549 |
3.883 |
5.238 |
||
|
80% |
0.816 |
2.074 |
3.332 |
4.595 |
5.823 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.942 |
3.892 |
4.788 |
5.644 |
6.546 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.62
|
71.33
|
45.09
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.84
|
85.51
|
56.59
|
37.81
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
89.68
|
77.24
|
42.91
|
32.21
|
| 3.50 % |
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.981% |
0.50 |
87.62
|
57.21
|
37.38
|
23.76
|
| 4.00 % |
94.22
|
90% Succ. 4.150% |
5.78 |
82.84
|
42.29
|
31.90
|
19.78
|
| 4.50 % |
89.61
|
10.39 |
58.08
|
37.44
|
23.20
|
16.60
|
|
| 5.00 % |
82.28
|
80% Succ. 5.114% |
17.72 |
44.28
|
30.66
|
19.22
|
13.18
|
| 5.50 % |
63.12
|
50% Succ. 5.854% |
36.88 |
38.06
|
23.07
|
14.74
|
10.45
|
| 6.00 % |
46.52
|
53.48 |
30.04
|
17.97
|
11.94
|
7.71
|
|
| 6.50 % |
38.12
|
61.88 |
23.76
|
13.18
|
9.14
|
5.91
|
|
| 7.00 % |
31.59
|
68.41 |
16.54
|
11.38
|
6.78
|
4.48
|
|
| 7.50 % |
24.44
|
75.56 |
12.50
|
7.90
|
4.73
|
3.48
|
|
| 8.00 % |
14.68
|
85.32 |
9.89
|
6.16
|
3.54
|
2.55
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
79.29
|
61.81
|
30.91
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
91.36
|
76.59
|
45.47
|
24.87
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
82.73
|
69.20
|
31.01
|
18.00
|
| 3.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 3.814% |
0.83 |
79.29
|
48.70
|
24.35
|
9.89
|
| 4.00 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 4.004% |
9.68 |
74.51
|
31.63
|
17.90
|
7.80
|
| 4.50 % |
82.62
|
80% Succ. 4.927% |
17.38 |
52.34
|
24.66
|
9.26
|
6.35
|
| 5.00 % |
77.52
|
22.48 |
35.17
|
15.61
|
7.39
|
2.91
|
|
| 5.50 % |
56.40
|
50% Succ. 5.697% |
43.60 |
26.01
|
8.53
|
4.37
|
1.77
|
| 6.00 % |
37.88
|
62.12 |
15.19
|
6.66
|
2.60
|
0.31
|
|
| 6.50 % |
26.53
|
73.47 |
8.95
|
3.12
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
18.00
|
82.00 |
6.14
|
2.50
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
10.30
|
89.70 |
2.81
|
0.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
4.58
|
95.42 |
1.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.29
|
83.10
|
60.66
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.30
|
74.79
|
55.96
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.26
|
64.27
|
45.98
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.46
|
76.73
|
55.96
|
26.32
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
89.20
|
68.42
|
42.66
|
20.78
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.879% |
0.00 |
83.38
|
56.23
|
24.65
|
16.90
|
| 5.00 % |
92.52
|
90% Succ. 5.238% |
7.48 |
73.13
|
36.01
|
19.67
|
7.76
|
| 5.50 % |
87.53
|
80% Succ. 5.823% |
12.47 |
54.57
|
22.71
|
11.63
|
4.71
|
| 6.00 % |
76.73
|
23.27 |
32.96
|
17.73
|
6.93
|
0.83
|
|
| 6.50 % |
52.35
|
50% Succ. 6.546% |
47.65 |
21.33
|
8.31
|
2.22
|
0.00
|
| 7.00 % |
31.30
|
68.70 |
16.34
|
6.65
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
20.22
|
79.78 |
7.48
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
12.19
|
87.81 |
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio
For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
