Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.569% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 28.36% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 1.19% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.243%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Dec 2014
 30 Nov 2024 0.000 9.243 1.19
[ -1.70 ] 		-5.36
Jun 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jan 1908 		0.000
May 1910 		1.352
May 1941 		4.461
May 1941 		7.569
May 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 2.724
 5.436
 8.146
90%
 0.000
 0.837
 3.672
 6.360
 8.887
80%
 0.000
 1.808
 4.357
 7.009
 9.622
50%
Median WR 		1.938
 4.248
 6.490
 8.648
 10.912
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		10.197
Mar 1873 		12.083
Mar 1873 		13.968
Mar 1873 		15.856
Feb 1873 		17.753
Feb 1873
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Aug 1932 		0.000
Dec 1936 		1.352
May 1941 		4.461
May 1941 		7.569
May 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 2.360
 5.290
 8.073
90%
 0.000
 0.298
 3.136
 6.219
 8.939
80%
 0.000
 1.395
 4.108
 6.859
 9.552
50%
Median WR 		1.324
 3.665
 5.966
 8.271
 10.571
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		7.844
Sep 1981 		9.739
Sep 1981 		11.635
Sep 1981 		13.531
Sep 1981 		15.426
Sep 1981
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Sep 2007 		0.717
Oct 2013 		3.621
Nov 2013 		6.499
Dec 2014 		9.243
Dec 2014
95%
 0.000
 0.974
 3.792
 6.658
 9.505
90%
 0.000
 1.823
 4.404
 6.972
 9.589
80%
 0.117
 2.650
 5.141
 7.640
 10.091
50%
Median WR 		2.594
 4.754
 6.878
 9.139
 11.364
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		7.844
Sep 1981 		9.739
Sep 1981 		11.635
Sep 1981 		13.531
Sep 1981 		15.426
Sep 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024
Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.15
77.55
49.42
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.30
73.26
41.78
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.23
65.97
37.67
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.67
61.40
32.35
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
85.07
52.89
28.36
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
77.95
45.02
25.41
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.55
72.80
38.08
22.86
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
94.44
65.22
33.68
19.56
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
91.90
59.03
28.65
15.57
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
87.96
49.65
25.52
10.82
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
80.15
39.70
23.15
7.87
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.569% 		0.00
73.26
34.72
19.04
6.25
8.00 %
96.53
3.47
64.41
29.05
14.12
4.34
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.04
73.45
37.84
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.08
67.44
30.25
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.47
56.89
28.12
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.81
52.08
21.28
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
82.15
41.81
15.82
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
74.19
33.77
12.67
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
97.69
66.88
27.84
11.56
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
91.12
56.71
22.76
8.79
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
90.47
49.49
16.00
5.27
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
87.05
38.11
12.95
2.22
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
75.86
29.51
11.66
0.93
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.569% 		0.00
67.53
23.40
8.79
0.28
8.00 %
96.02
3.98
56.52
16.37
4.63
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
85.65
62.79
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
81.91
50.94
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
71.31
46.99
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
66.74
32.22
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.35
64.66
20.37
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
86.07
56.76
14.55
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
82.54
46.15
12.68
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
71.73
35.14
10.19
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
66.11
20.58
5.82
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
61.33
14.35
4.99
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
88.57
48.23
12.47
2.08
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
83.78
36.38
8.52
0.62
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
71.73
21.00
5.61
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com