Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 60-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.347% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 15% of cases. In the 11.02% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 60 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 60 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.39% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -8.52%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.722%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
60 Years 1 Mar 1963
 28 Feb 2023 1.577 2.722 5.39
[ 1.45 ] 		-8.52
Apr 1971 - Jul 1971
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.444
Jun 1933 		0.670
Jun 1933 		0.896
Jun 1933 		1.122
Jun 1933 		1.347
Jun 1939 		1.409
95% Succ. 		1.498
90% Succ. 		2.019
80% Succ. 		2.464
50% Succ.
Median 1.169
 1.506
 1.827
 2.153
 2.464
Average 1.793
 2.054
 2.316
 2.578
 2.840
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.975
Feb 1873 		7.089
Feb 1873 		7.203
Feb 1873 		7.317
Feb 1873 		7.431
Feb 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.444
 0.563
 0.632
 0.836
 1.169
75% 0.670
 0.795
 0.871
 1.153
 1.506
50% 0.896
 1.003
 1.089
 1.393
 1.827
25% 1.122
 1.209
 1.300
 1.689
 2.153
0% 1.347
 1.409
 1.498
 2.019
 2.464
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.444
Jun 1933 		0.670
Jun 1933 		0.896
Jun 1933 		1.122
Jun 1933 		1.347
Jun 1939 		1.392
95% Succ. 		1.405
90% Succ. 		1.448
80% Succ. 		2.248
50% Succ.
Median 1.138
 1.439
 1.720
 1.981
 2.248
Average 1.241
 1.462
 1.684
 1.905
 2.126
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		2.075
Aug 1957 		2.291
Aug 1957 		2.509
Nov 1957 		2.729
Nov 1957 		2.949
Nov 1957
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.444
 0.510
 0.572
 0.651
 1.138
75% 0.670
 0.732
 0.785
 0.852
 1.439
50% 0.896
 0.956
 0.998
 1.052
 1.720
25% 1.122
 1.175
 1.203
 1.249
 1.981
0% 1.347
 1.392
 1.405
 1.448
 2.248
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
80.58
80% Succ.
2.019% 		19.42
80.58
64.50
43.09
35.50
23.13
2.50 %
47.52
52.48
47.52
33.15
23.67
19.96
18.52
3.00 %
25.47
74.53
25.47
22.49
19.06
16.44
15.54
3.50 %
20.33
79.67
20.33
16.26
15.27
15.00
14.00
4.00 %
15.00
85.00
15.00
14.18
13.01
12.10
11.02
4.50 %
12.29
87.71
12.29
10.75
9.67
8.31
6.96
5.00 %
8.49
91.51
8.49
6.68
6.41
6.05
5.51
5.50 %
5.78
94.22
5.78
5.15
4.79
4.61
4.25
6.00 %
4.25
95.75
4.25
4.16
3.88
3.43
3.16
6.50 %
3.16
96.84
3.16
2.89
2.44
1.99
1.36
7.00 %
1.36
98.64
1.36
1.08
0.63
0.27
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
59.46
50% Succ.
2.248% 		40.54
59.46
49.27
33.89
25.78
1.87
2.50 %
32.85
67.15
32.85
12.89
0.62
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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