Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 50-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.485% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 16.87% of cases. In the 10.43% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 50 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 50 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.47% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.182%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 Mar 1973
 28 Feb 2023 1.638 3.182 5.47
[ 1.46 ] 		-5.36
Jun 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.203
Jun 1933 		0.644
Jun 1933 		1.085
Jun 1933 		1.485
Jun 1939 		1.569
95% Succ. 		1.767
90% Succ. 		2.383
80% Succ. 		2.911
50% Succ.
Median 1.599
 1.898
 2.221
 2.588
 2.911
Average 1.837
 2.165
 2.500
 2.835
 3.170
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		7.035
Apr 1872 		7.278
Apr 1872 		7.524
Feb 1873 		7.773
Feb 1873 		8.023
Feb 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.111
 0.338
 0.718
 1.599
75% 0.203
 0.523
 0.666
 1.112
 1.898
50% 0.644
 0.877
 0.994
 1.531
 2.221
25% 1.085
 1.236
 1.382
 1.967
 2.588
0% 1.485
 1.569
 1.767
 2.383
 2.911
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.203
Jun 1933 		0.644
Jun 1933 		1.085
Jun 1933 		1.485
Jun 1939 		1.549
95% Succ. 		1.569
90% Succ. 		1.757
80% Succ. 		2.821
50% Succ.
Median 1.561
 1.796
 2.063
 2.379
 2.821
Average 1.248
 1.554
 1.874
 2.195
 2.516
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		2.273
Nov 1957 		2.522
Jun 1970 		2.820
Jun 1970 		3.119
Jun 1970 		3.418
Jun 1970
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.100
 0.334
 1.561
75% 0.203
 0.294
 0.512
 0.661
 1.796
50% 0.644
 0.773
 0.876
 0.992
 2.063
25% 1.085
 1.184
 1.233
 1.364
 2.379
0% 1.485
 1.549
 1.569
 1.757
 2.821
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
85.25
80% Succ.
2.383% 		14.75
85.25
79.38
58.92
47.27
32.76
2.50 %
76.77
50% Succ.
2.911% 		23.23
76.77
54.36
35.70
22.90
20.70
3.00 %
43.03
56.97
43.03
25.02
21.76
19.89
17.44
3.50 %
22.98
77.02
22.98
20.29
16.95
14.02
12.47
4.00 %
16.87
83.13
16.87
14.02
12.63
11.90
10.43
4.50 %
12.71
87.29
12.71
11.57
10.19
8.64
7.42
5.00 %
9.78
90.22
9.78
8.56
6.68
5.54
4.65
5.50 %
6.19
93.81
6.19
5.70
4.73
4.24
3.83
6.00 %
4.89
95.11
4.89
4.24
3.83
3.50
2.69
6.50 %
3.83
96.17
3.83
3.50
2.85
2.20
1.30
7.00 %
2.85
97.15
2.85
2.28
1.30
0.90
0.24
7.50 %
1.30
98.70
1.30
0.81
0.24
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.16
99.84
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
69.88
30.12
69.88
66.06
52.58
43.26
18.47
2.50 %
63.73
50% Succ.
2.821% 		36.27
63.73
46.42
20.97
0.33
0.00
3.00 %
29.45
70.55
29.45
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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