Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.5% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.206%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.669 | 3.206 |
5.50 [ 1.48 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.203 Jun 1933 |
0.644 Jun 1933 |
1.085 Jun 1933 |
1.485 Jun 1939 |
1.569 95% Succ. |
1.767 90% Succ. |
2.383 80% Succ. |
2.911 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.600 |
1.899 |
2.226 |
2.590 |
2.911 | |||||
Average |
1.836 |
2.164 |
2.500 |
2.835 |
3.170 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.035 Apr 1872 |
7.278 Apr 1872 |
7.524 Feb 1873 |
7.773 Feb 1873 |
8.023 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.111 |
0.338 |
0.718 |
1.600 |
75% |
0.203 |
0.523 |
0.666 |
1.112 |
1.899 |
|
50% |
0.644 |
0.877 |
0.994 |
1.531 |
2.226 |
|
25% |
1.085 |
1.236 |
1.382 |
1.967 |
2.590 |
|
0% |
1.485 |
1.569 |
1.767 |
2.383 |
2.911 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.203 Jun 1933 |
0.644 Jun 1933 |
1.085 Jun 1933 |
1.485 Jun 1939 |
1.549 95% Succ. |
1.569 90% Succ. |
1.757 80% Succ. |
2.821 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.563 |
1.804 |
2.063 |
2.379 |
2.821 | |||||
Average |
1.249 |
1.555 |
1.875 |
2.196 |
2.516 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
2.273 Nov 1957 |
2.522 Jun 1970 |
2.820 Jun 1970 |
3.119 Jun 1970 |
3.418 Jun 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.100 |
0.334 |
1.563 |
75% |
0.203 |
0.294 |
0.512 |
0.661 |
1.804 |
|
50% |
0.644 |
0.773 |
0.876 |
0.992 |
2.063 |
|
25% |
1.085 |
1.184 |
1.233 |
1.364 |
2.379 |
|
0% |
1.485 |
1.549 |
1.569 |
1.757 |
2.821 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
85.27
|
80% Succ. 2.383% |
14.73 |
85.27
|
79.41
|
58.99
|
47.36
|
32.71
|
2.50 % |
76.81
|
50% Succ. 2.911% |
23.19 |
76.81
|
54.43
|
35.64
|
22.86
|
20.67
|
3.00 % |
43.12
|
56.88 |
43.12
|
24.98
|
21.72
|
19.85
|
17.41
|
|
3.50 % |
22.95
|
77.05 |
22.95
|
20.26
|
16.92
|
14.00
|
12.45
|
|
4.00 % |
16.84
|
83.16 |
16.84
|
14.00
|
12.61
|
11.88
|
10.41
|
|
4.50 % |
12.69
|
87.31 |
12.69
|
11.55
|
10.17
|
8.62
|
7.40
|
|
5.00 % |
9.76
|
90.24 |
9.76
|
8.54
|
6.67
|
5.53
|
4.64
|
|
5.50 % |
6.18
|
93.82 |
6.18
|
5.70
|
4.72
|
4.23
|
3.82
|
|
6.00 % |
4.88
|
95.12 |
4.88
|
4.23
|
3.82
|
3.50
|
2.69
|
|
6.50 % |
3.82
|
96.18 |
3.82
|
3.50
|
2.85
|
2.20
|
1.30
|
|
7.00 % |
2.85
|
97.15 |
2.85
|
2.28
|
1.30
|
0.90
|
0.24
|
|
7.50 % |
1.30
|
98.70 |
1.30
|
0.81
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.16
|
99.84 |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
69.88
|
30.12 |
69.88
|
66.06
|
52.58
|
43.59
|
18.47
|
|
2.50 % |
63.73
|
50% Succ. 2.821% |
36.27 |
63.73
|
46.42
|
20.97
|
0.33
|
0.00
|
3.00 % |
29.62
|
70.38 |
29.62
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio
For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com