Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 40-year retirement

Last Update: 30 September 2024

Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.793% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 40 years in the 30.6% of cases. In the 7.98% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 40 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 40 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 4.51% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.644%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Sep 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
40 Years 1 Oct 1984
 30 Sep 2024 2.259 4.644 4.51
[ 1.68 ] 		-5.36
Jun 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at August 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Aug 1931 		0.000
Apr 1939 		0.466
Apr 1940 		1.147
Dec 1940 		1.793
Jun 1939
95%
 0.000
 0.146
 0.748
 1.348
 1.947
90%
 0.062
 0.599
 1.119
 1.637
 2.143
80%
 0.668
 1.250
 1.810
 2.424
 2.932
50%
Median WR 		1.993
 2.343
 2.688
 3.049
 3.429
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		7.912
Apr 1872 		8.168
Feb 1873 		8.430
Feb 1873 		8.693
Feb 1873 		8.955
Feb 1873
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Aug 1931 		0.000
Apr 1939 		0.466
Apr 1940 		1.147
Dec 1940 		1.793
Jun 1939
95%
 0.000
 0.046
 0.670
 1.295
 1.903
90%
 0.000
 0.155
 0.752
 1.353
 1.951
80%
 0.108
 0.620
 1.136
 1.643
 2.156
50%
Median WR 		1.912
 2.250
 2.586
 2.936
 3.332
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		3.918
Sep 1981 		4.413
Sep 1981 		4.908
Sep 1981 		5.403
Sep 1981 		5.897
Sep 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at August 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
92.53
90% Succ.
2.143% 		7.47
86.60
76.79
63.10
49.63
2.50 %
86.46
80% Succ.
2.932% 		13.54
76.94
59.59
37.70
27.31
3.00 %
77.96
50% Succ.
3.429% 		22.04
54.25
33.02
25.18
15.89
3.50 %
44.36
55.64
31.33
24.01
15.52
12.01
4.00 %
30.60
69.40
22.25
15.15
11.71
7.98
4.50 %
21.45
78.55
15.23
11.35
8.05
6.44
5.00 %
15.30
84.70
11.49
7.98
6.00
5.56
5.50 %
11.27
88.73
7.91
5.86
5.42
4.83
6.00 %
7.91
92.09
5.42
5.05
4.47
3.81
6.50 %
5.20
94.80
4.61
4.10
3.44
3.15
7.00 %
4.17
95.83
3.59
3.15
2.71
2.34
7.50 %
3.37
96.63
2.64
2.27
1.68
1.10
8.00 %
2.20
97.80
1.54
1.10
0.37
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
85.85
80% Succ.
2.156% 		14.15
74.62
68.24
56.03
46.88
2.50 %
74.34
25.66
66.57
53.26
29.13
14.98
3.00 %
65.46
50% Succ.
3.332% 		34.54
46.46
20.80
13.31
6.10
3.50 %
30.37
69.63
18.59
12.76
5.69
2.50
4.00 %
17.61
82.39
11.23
5.13
2.36
0.00
4.50 %
10.82
89.18
5.13
2.22
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
5.13
94.87
2.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
2.08
97.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at August 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com