Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.339% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 60.7% of cases. In the 14.13% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 3.17% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.394%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 30 Years |
1 Oct 1994 |
30 Sep 2024 | 0.765 | 4.394 |
3.17 [ 0.64 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.804 Jun 1933 |
1.573 Jun 1939 |
2.339 Jun 1939 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.181 |
0.966 |
1.752 |
2.560 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.552 |
1.330 |
2.069 |
2.820 |
||
|
80% |
0.595 |
1.488 |
2.338 |
3.083 |
3.761 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.886 |
2.460 |
3.024 |
3.599 |
4.185 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.586 Apr 1872 |
8.934 Apr 1872 |
9.313 Feb 1873 |
9.715 Feb 1873 |
10.117 Feb 1873 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.000 Mar 1933 |
0.804 Jun 1933 |
1.573 Jun 1939 |
2.339 Jun 1939 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.102 |
0.907 |
1.702 |
2.504 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.213 |
0.984 |
1.769 |
2.568 |
||
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.655 |
1.392 |
2.144 |
2.915 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
1.633 |
2.228 |
2.870 |
3.445 |
4.029 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.023 Sep 1981 |
5.582 Sep 1981 |
6.140 Sep 1981 |
6.699 Sep 1981 |
7.258 Sep 1981 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.488 Oct 1993 |
1.431 Oct 1993 |
2.375 Oct 1993 |
3.318 Oct 1993 |
4.248 Feb 1994 |
|
|
95% |
0.619 |
1.552 |
2.473 |
3.394 |
4.315 |
||
|
90% |
0.750 |
1.664 |
2.580 |
3.487 |
4.412 |
||
|
80% |
1.897 |
2.644 |
3.390 |
4.137 |
4.848 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
2.987 |
3.476 |
4.032 |
4.549 |
5.097 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.023 Sep 1981 |
5.582 Sep 1981 |
6.140 Sep 1981 |
6.699 Sep 1981 |
7.258 Sep 1981 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.339% |
0.00 |
91.92
|
84.93
|
65.81
|
44.08
|
| 2.50 % |
97.17
|
95% Succ. 2.560% |
2.83 |
87.48
|
73.96
|
47.51
|
27.52
|
| 3.00 % |
88.56
|
11.44 |
81.83
|
51.28
|
27.99
|
22.81
|
|
| 3.50 % |
86.34
|
80% Succ. 3.761% |
13.66 |
54.98
|
31.83
|
23.22
|
16.89
|
| 4.00 % |
60.70
|
50% Succ. 4.185% |
39.30 |
36.61
|
24.56
|
18.24
|
14.13
|
| 4.50 % |
41.52
|
58.48 |
26.18
|
19.52
|
14.27
|
11.24
|
|
| 5.00 % |
31.76
|
68.24 |
21.13
|
14.54
|
11.31
|
8.41
|
|
| 5.50 % |
22.95
|
77.05 |
14.94
|
11.64
|
8.34
|
6.39
|
|
| 6.00 % |
16.15
|
83.85 |
12.05
|
8.28
|
6.12
|
4.44
|
|
| 6.50 % |
12.38
|
87.62 |
8.08
|
6.19
|
4.37
|
3.70
|
|
| 7.00 % |
8.48
|
91.52 |
6.12
|
4.10
|
3.43
|
3.10
|
|
| 7.50 % |
6.06
|
93.94 |
3.97
|
3.36
|
2.76
|
2.15
|
|
| 8.00 % |
3.84
|
96.16 |
3.16
|
2.49
|
1.95
|
1.08
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.339% |
0.00 |
85.73
|
73.37
|
52.68
|
36.39
|
| 2.50 % |
95.01
|
95% Succ. 2.504% |
4.99 |
77.88
|
61.24
|
38.29
|
20.10
|
| 3.00 % |
79.79
|
20.21 |
70.27
|
38.29
|
19.74
|
14.51
|
|
| 3.50 % |
76.10
|
23.90 |
43.04
|
23.42
|
14.27
|
7.37
|
|
| 4.00 % |
51.96
|
50% Succ. 4.029% |
48.04 |
25.09
|
14.74
|
8.68
|
4.40
|
| 4.50 % |
30.20
|
69.80 |
14.98
|
9.04
|
4.52
|
2.14
|
|
| 5.00 % |
18.31
|
81.69 |
9.39
|
4.52
|
2.38
|
0.12
|
|
| 5.50 % |
9.87
|
90.13 |
4.52
|
2.73
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
5.71
|
94.29 |
2.97
|
0.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
3.09
|
96.91 |
0.36
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.59
|
99.41 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.14
|
74.69
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.78
|
81.74
|
57.26
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
85.06
|
58.92
|
48.96
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
89.21
|
73.86
|
48.96
|
25.73
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.248% |
0.00 |
82.16
|
50.62
|
30.29
|
15.35
|
| 4.50 % |
87.97
|
80% Succ. 4.848% |
12.03 |
51.87
|
31.54
|
15.77
|
7.47
|
| 5.00 % |
63.49
|
50% Succ. 5.097% |
36.51 |
32.78
|
15.77
|
8.30
|
0.41
|
| 5.50 % |
34.44
|
65.56 |
15.77
|
9.54
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
19.92
|
80.08 |
10.37
|
1.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
10.79
|
89.21 |
1.24
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
2.07
|
97.93 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio
For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
