Short Term Treasury Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.462% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 94.17% of cases. In the 19.92% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 20 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: November 2023), the portfolio has returned 1.66% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.912%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Nov 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Dec 2003
 30 Nov 2023 0.000 4.912 1.66
[ -0.91 ] 		-5.36
Jun 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Sep 1898 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.618
Jul 1933 		2.102
Aug 1939 		3.462
Feb 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 1.036
 2.495
 3.979
90%
 0.000
 0.553
 1.803
 2.931
 4.147
80%
 0.463
 1.716
 2.915
 4.079
 5.129
50%
Median WR 		1.795
 2.737
 3.721
 4.747
 5.855
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		9.544
Apr 1872 		10.089
Apr 1872 		10.699
Feb 1873 		11.342
Feb 1873 		11.985
Feb 1873
Period: Dec 1923 - Nov 2023
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Aug 1930 		0.000
Apr 1932 		0.618
Jul 1933 		2.102
Aug 1939 		3.462
Feb 1941
95%
 0.000
 0.000
 0.985
 2.429
 3.814
90%
 0.000
 0.000
 1.066
 2.534
 4.004
80%
 0.000
 0.730
 1.999
 3.499
 4.944
50%
Median WR 		1.233
 2.365
 3.492
 4.546
 5.710
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		6.200
Sep 1981 		7.009
Sep 1981 		7.817
Sep 1981 		8.625
Sep 1981 		9.434
Sep 1981
Period: Dec 1973 - Nov 2023
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Nov 2001 		0.419
Jul 2003 		1.919
Jul 2003 		3.419
Jul 2003 		4.912
Dec 2003
95%
 0.000
 0.867
 2.307
 3.747
 5.188
90%
 0.583
 1.861
 3.129
 4.369
 5.574
80%
 1.046
 2.285
 3.524
 4.763
 5.929
50%
Median WR 		2.957
 3.892
 4.788
 5.644
 6.546
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		6.200
Sep 1981 		7.009
Sep 1981 		7.817
Sep 1981 		8.625
Sep 1981 		9.434
Sep 1981
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
87.84
71.87
45.43
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
94.80
86.15
57.02
38.10
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.462% 		0.00
89.60
77.82
43.23
32.46
3.50 %
99.50
95% Succ.
3.979% 		0.50
87.91
57.64
37.66
23.93
4.00 %
94.17
90% Succ.
4.147% 		5.83
83.46
42.61
32.14
19.92
4.50 %
89.54
10.46
58.52
37.72
23.37
16.73
5.00 %
82.89
80% Succ.
5.129% 		17.11
44.61
30.89
19.36
13.28
5.50 %
63.60
50% Succ.
5.855% 		36.40
38.35
23.25
14.85
10.53
6.00 %
46.87
53.13
30.26
18.11
12.03
7.77
6.50 %
38.41
61.59
23.93
13.28
9.21
5.95
7.00 %
31.83
68.17
16.67
11.47
6.83
4.51
7.50 %
24.62
75.38
12.59
7.96
4.76
3.51
8.00 %
14.79
85.21
9.96
6.20
3.57
2.57
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Dec 1923 - Nov 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
79.81
63.06
32.15
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
91.36
77.84
46.72
26.12
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.462% 		0.00
82.73
70.45
32.26
18.63
3.50 %
99.17
95% Succ.
3.814% 		0.83
79.92
49.95
25.60
9.89
4.00 %
90.32
90% Succ.
4.004% 		9.68
75.75
32.88
18.73
7.80
4.50 %
82.62
80% Succ.
4.944% 		17.38
53.59
25.91
9.26
6.35
5.00 %
78.77
21.23
36.42
16.86
7.39
2.91
5.50 %
57.65
50% Succ.
5.710% 		42.35
27.26
8.74
4.37
1.77
6.00 %
39.13
60.87
16.44
6.66
2.60
0.31
6.50 %
27.78
72.22
9.37
3.12
0.83
0.00
7.00 %
19.25
80.75
6.14
2.50
0.10
0.00
7.50 %
11.03
88.97
2.81
0.31
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
4.58
95.42
1.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Dec 1973 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.68
86.43
63.99
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.63
78.12
59.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.58
67.59
47.09
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.12
80.06
58.17
26.32
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
92.52
71.75
42.66
20.78
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.912% 		0.00
86.70
57.89
24.65
16.90
5.00 %
95.84
95% Succ.
5.188% 		4.16
75.62
36.01
19.67
7.76
5.50 %
90.86
90% Succ.
5.574% 		9.14
55.12
22.71
11.63
4.71
6.00 %
78.67
21.33
32.96
17.73
6.93
0.83
6.50 %
52.35
50% Succ.
6.546% 		47.65
21.33
8.31
2.22
0.00
7.00 %
31.30
68.70
16.34
6.65
0.28
0.00
7.50 %
20.22
79.78
7.48
0.83
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
12.19
87.81
4.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Short Term Treasury Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at October 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio

For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com