Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Short Term Treasury Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 1.63% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.943%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 0.000 | 4.943 |
1.63 [ -0.89 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Short Term Treasury Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Short Term Treasury Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1898 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.979 95% Succ. |
4.137 90% Succ. |
5.137 80% Succ. |
5.858 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.804 |
2.741 |
3.724 |
4.755 |
5.858 | |||||
Average |
2.360 |
3.247 |
4.260 |
5.306 |
6.353 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.544 Apr 1872 |
10.089 Apr 1872 |
10.699 Feb 1873 |
11.342 Feb 1873 |
11.985 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.479 |
1.804 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.567 |
1.722 |
2.741 |
|
50% |
0.618 |
1.036 |
1.801 |
2.923 |
3.724 |
|
25% |
2.102 |
2.495 |
2.926 |
4.086 |
4.755 |
|
0% |
3.462 |
3.979 |
4.137 |
5.137 |
5.858 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.814 95% Succ. |
4.004 90% Succ. |
4.981 80% Succ. |
5.724 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.261 |
2.389 |
3.524 |
4.565 |
5.724 | |||||
Average |
1.594 |
2.481 |
3.561 |
4.696 |
5.831 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.261 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.764 |
2.389 |
|
50% |
0.618 |
0.985 |
1.066 |
2.149 |
3.524 |
|
25% |
2.102 |
2.429 |
2.534 |
3.584 |
4.565 |
|
0% |
3.462 |
3.814 |
4.004 |
4.981 |
5.724 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 2001 |
0.467 Mar 2003 |
1.974 Mar 2003 |
3.460 Jan 2003 |
4.943 May 2003 |
5.259 95% Succ. |
5.675 90% Succ. |
5.929 80% Succ. |
6.546 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.957 |
3.892 |
4.788 |
5.644 |
6.546 | |||||
Average |
2.748 |
3.718 |
4.723 |
5.729 |
6.734 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.688 |
1.303 |
2.957 |
75% |
0.467 |
1.224 |
1.955 |
2.522 |
3.892 |
|
50% |
1.974 |
2.554 |
3.220 |
3.741 |
4.788 |
|
25% |
3.460 |
3.893 |
4.461 |
4.822 |
5.644 |
|
0% |
4.943 |
5.259 |
5.675 |
5.929 |
6.546 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.23
|
72.18
|
45.63
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.78
|
86.53
|
57.27
|
38.26
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.55
|
78.16
|
43.42
|
32.60
|
3.50 % |
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.979% |
0.50 |
99.50
|
88.29
|
57.90
|
37.82
|
24.04
|
4.00 % |
94.15
|
90% Succ. 4.137% |
5.85 |
94.15
|
83.83
|
42.79
|
32.28
|
20.01
|
4.50 % |
89.49
|
10.51 |
89.49
|
58.78
|
37.89
|
23.47
|
16.80
|
|
5.00 % |
83.26
|
80% Succ. 5.137% |
16.74 |
83.26
|
44.81
|
31.03
|
19.45
|
13.34
|
5.50 % |
63.88
|
50% Succ. 5.858% |
36.12 |
63.88
|
38.51
|
23.35
|
14.92
|
10.57
|
6.00 % |
47.07
|
52.93 |
47.07
|
30.40
|
18.19
|
12.08
|
7.80
|
|
6.50 % |
38.58
|
61.42 |
38.58
|
24.04
|
13.34
|
9.25
|
5.98
|
|
7.00 % |
31.97
|
68.03 |
31.97
|
16.74
|
11.52
|
6.86
|
4.53
|
|
7.50 % |
24.73
|
75.27 |
24.73
|
12.65
|
7.99
|
4.78
|
3.52
|
|
8.00 % |
14.85
|
85.15 |
14.85
|
10.01
|
6.23
|
3.59
|
2.58
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
80.54
|
63.79
|
32.88
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.36
|
78.56
|
47.45
|
26.85
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.73
|
71.18
|
32.99
|
19.35
|
3.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 3.814% |
0.83 |
99.17
|
80.65
|
50.68
|
26.33
|
9.89
|
4.00 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 4.004% |
9.68 |
90.32
|
76.48
|
33.61
|
19.46
|
7.80
|
4.50 % |
82.62
|
80% Succ. 4.981% |
17.38 |
82.62
|
54.32
|
26.64
|
9.26
|
6.35
|
5.00 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
37.15
|
17.59
|
7.39
|
2.91
|
|
5.50 % |
58.38
|
50% Succ. 5.724% |
41.62 |
58.38
|
27.99
|
9.26
|
4.37
|
1.77
|
6.00 % |
39.85
|
60.15 |
39.85
|
17.17
|
6.66
|
2.60
|
0.31
|
|
6.50 % |
28.51
|
71.49 |
28.51
|
10.09
|
3.12
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
19.98
|
80.02 |
19.98
|
6.14
|
2.50
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
11.76
|
88.24 |
11.76
|
2.81
|
0.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
4.58
|
95.42 |
4.58
|
1.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
88.37
|
65.93
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.57
|
80.06
|
60.66
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.52
|
69.53
|
47.09
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.06
|
81.99
|
58.45
|
26.32
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.46
|
73.41
|
42.66
|
20.78
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.943% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.64
|
57.89
|
24.65
|
16.90
|
5.00 % |
97.78
|
95% Succ. 5.259% |
2.22 |
97.78
|
75.90
|
36.01
|
19.67
|
7.76
|
5.50 % |
92.52
|
90% Succ. 5.675% |
7.48 |
92.52
|
55.12
|
22.71
|
11.63
|
4.71
|
6.00 % |
78.67
|
21.33 |
78.67
|
32.96
|
17.73
|
6.93
|
0.83
|
|
6.50 % |
52.35
|
50% Succ. 6.546% |
47.65 |
52.35
|
21.33
|
8.31
|
2.22
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
31.30
|
68.70 |
31.30
|
16.34
|
6.65
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
20.22
|
79.78 |
20.22
|
7.48
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
12.19
|
87.81 |
12.19
|
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Short Term Treasury Portfolio
For the Short Term Treasury Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com