US Small Cap Value: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 31 May 2024

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Small Cap Value asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.014% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

Considering the last 70 years (last update: May 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 12.593%.

The last 70 years of the US Small Cap Value asset class

Over the last 70 years (last update: May 2024), the asset class has returned 13.82% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -54.13%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
70 Years 1 Jun 1954
31 May 2024 12.576 12.593 13.82
[ 9.90 ]
-54.13
Jun 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Small Cap Value page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Small Cap Value asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
3.009
Sep 1929
3.011
Sep 1929
3.012
Sep 1929
3.013
Sep 1929
3.014
Sep 1929
95%
3.877
3.882
3.887
3.892
3.896
90%
4.127
4.138
4.148
4.156
4.157
80%
4.756
4.765
4.775
4.784
4.787
50%
Median WR
6.360
6.377
6.394
6.411
6.428
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
3.009
Sep 1929
3.011
Sep 1929
3.012
Sep 1929
3.013
Sep 1929
3.014
Sep 1929
95%
4.268
4.269
4.270
4.271
4.272
90%
5.069
5.070
5.071
5.073
5.074
80%
6.615
6.616
6.618
6.619
6.621
50%
Median WR
10.601
10.603
10.605
10.607
10.609
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Small Cap Value asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.014%
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
99.50
95% Succ.
3.896%
0.50
99.50
99.40
99.30
99.30
4.00 %
93.01
90% Succ.
4.157%
6.99
93.01
92.81
92.81
92.71
4.50 %
84.83
80% Succ.
4.787%
15.17
84.83
84.73
84.63
84.53
5.00 %
75.65
24.35
75.55
75.55
75.35
75.15
5.50 %
64.87
35.13
64.67
64.47
64.37
64.27
6.00 %
55.59
50% Succ.
6.428%
44.41
55.29
54.99
54.79
54.69
6.50 %
49.30
50.70
49.30
49.10
48.90
48.90
7.00 %
45.41
54.59
45.41
45.41
45.11
45.01
7.50 %
40.72
59.28
40.52
40.22
39.92
39.72
8.00 %
32.44
67.56
32.44
32.24
32.14
31.84
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.014%
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
98.89
1.11
98.89
98.89
98.89
98.89
4.00 %
96.95
95% Succ.
4.272%
3.05
96.95
96.95
96.95
96.95
4.50 %
93.63
6.37
93.63
93.63
93.63
93.63
5.00 %
90.30
90% Succ.
5.074%
9.70
90.30
90.30
90.30
90.30
5.50 %
87.26
12.74
87.26
87.26
87.26
87.26
6.00 %
85.32
14.68
85.32
85.04
85.04
85.04
6.50 %
81.16
80% Succ.
6.621%
18.84
81.16
81.16
81.16
81.16
7.00 %
76.45
23.55
76.45
76.45
76.18
76.18
7.50 %
71.75
28.25
71.75
71.75
71.75
71.75
8.00 %
68.70
31.30
68.70
68.70
68.70
68.42
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Small Cap Value Asset Class

For the US Small Cap Value Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com