Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Small Cap Value asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.027% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.
Considering the last 50 years (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 18.581%.
The last 50 years of the US Small Cap Value asset class
Over the last 50 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 15.25% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -54.13%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 50 Years |
1 Dec 1974 |
30 Nov 2024 | 18.487 | 18.581 |
15.25 [ 11.15 ] |
-54.13 Jun 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Small Cap Value page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Small Cap Value asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.972 Sep 1929 |
2.985 Sep 1929 |
2.999 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.027 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
3.887 |
3.912 |
3.948 |
3.973 |
4.000 |
|
|
90% |
4.182 |
4.231 |
4.250 |
4.276 |
4.305 |
|
|
80% |
4.867 |
4.934 |
4.988 |
5.060 |
5.123 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
7.344 |
7.385 |
7.425 |
7.478 |
7.495 |
|
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.972 Sep 1929 |
2.985 Sep 1929 |
2.999 Sep 1929 |
3.013 Sep 1929 |
3.027 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
4.752 |
4.771 |
4.790 |
4.808 |
4.827 |
|
|
90% |
5.681 |
5.699 |
5.717 |
5.735 |
5.753 |
|
|
80% |
6.993 |
7.014 |
7.033 |
7.056 |
7.077 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
9.524 |
9.542 |
9.560 |
9.579 |
9.595 |
|
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Small Cap Value asset class, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.027% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.92
|
99.92
|
99.92
|
| 3.50 % |
99.68
|
0.32 |
99.60
|
99.44
|
99.28
|
99.20
|
|
| 4.00 % |
95.03
|
95% Succ. 4.000% |
4.97 |
94.63
|
94.07
|
93.43
|
92.55
|
| 4.50 % |
88.14
|
11.86 |
87.90
|
87.26
|
86.46
|
85.98
|
|
| 5.00 % |
81.89
|
80% Succ. 5.123% |
18.11 |
81.01
|
79.97
|
78.37
|
76.92
|
| 5.50 % |
72.92
|
27.08 |
71.79
|
71.15
|
69.07
|
67.31
|
|
| 6.00 % |
65.87
|
34.13 |
64.66
|
63.06
|
61.46
|
60.98
|
|
| 6.50 % |
59.05
|
40.95 |
57.93
|
57.53
|
57.05
|
56.41
|
|
| 7.00 % |
54.65
|
50% Succ. 7.495% |
45.35 |
54.09
|
53.85
|
53.45
|
53.21
|
| 7.50 % |
49.92
|
50.08 |
49.84
|
49.20
|
48.40
|
47.44
|
|
| 8.00 % |
43.19
|
56.81 |
42.39
|
41.19
|
39.90
|
39.58
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.027% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.83
|
99.83
|
99.83
|
| 3.50 % |
99.33
|
0.67 |
99.33
|
99.33
|
99.17
|
99.17
|
|
| 4.00 % |
98.17
|
1.83 |
98.17
|
98.17
|
98.17
|
98.17
|
|
| 4.50 % |
96.17
|
95% Succ. 4.827% |
3.83 |
96.17
|
96.01
|
95.84
|
95.84
|
| 5.00 % |
94.01
|
5.99 |
94.01
|
93.84
|
93.68
|
93.68
|
|
| 5.50 % |
91.35
|
90% Succ. 5.753% |
8.65 |
91.18
|
90.85
|
90.52
|
90.52
|
| 6.00 % |
88.85
|
11.15 |
88.85
|
88.69
|
88.52
|
88.19
|
|
| 6.50 % |
84.86
|
15.14 |
84.69
|
84.36
|
84.36
|
84.03
|
|
| 7.00 % |
80.70
|
80% Succ. 7.077% |
19.30 |
80.70
|
80.53
|
80.20
|
79.87
|
| 7.50 % |
74.88
|
25.12 |
74.71
|
74.54
|
74.21
|
73.88
|
|
| 8.00 % |
69.05
|
30.95 |
69.05
|
69.05
|
69.05
|
69.05
|
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Small Cap Value Asset Class
For the US Small Cap Value Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
