US Small Cap Value: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 September 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Small Cap Value asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.917% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

Considering the last 10 years (last update: September 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 13.595%.

The last 10 years of the US Small Cap Value asset class

Over the last 10 years (last update: September 2024), the asset class has returned 8.89% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -40.32%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Sep 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Oct 2014
 30 Sep 2024 5.914 13.595 8.89
[ 5.88 ] 		-40.32
Sep 2018 - Mar 2020
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Small Cap Value page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Small Cap Value asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1974 - Sep 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1908 		0.000
Jun 1910 		1.421
Jul 1911 		3.170
Sep 1929 		4.917
Sep 1929
95%
 0.393
 2.365
 4.554
 6.789
 8.611
90%
 2.109
 4.183
 6.147
 8.062
 9.902
80%
 4.099
 5.954
 7.910
 9.671
 11.384
50%
Median WR 		8.268
 9.887
 11.459
 13.024
 14.706
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Apr 1928 		0.000
Sep 1929 		1.423
Sep 1929 		3.170
Sep 1929 		4.917
Sep 1929
95%
 1.992
 3.912
 5.523
 7.110
 8.640
90%
 3.589
 5.462
 7.143
 8.812
 10.073
80%
 5.030
 6.810
 8.471
 10.195
 11.973
50%
Median WR 		9.939
 11.332
 12.866
 14.267
 15.732
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.602
Mar 1999 		4.858
Feb 2006 		6.617
Jun 2007 		8.051
Jun 2007 		9.485
Jun 2007
95%
 4.017
 5.832
 7.658
 9.242
 10.841
90%
 4.495
 6.246
 8.272
 10.131
 11.938
80%
 5.700
 7.519
 9.302
 11.228
 12.997
50%
Median WR 		10.155
 11.606
 13.038
 14.584
 16.146
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Small Cap Value asset class, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1974 - Sep 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.83
96.12
90.61
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.07
94.79
88.59
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.61
93.57
87.02
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
97.91
92.70
84.13
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.77
96.76
91.08
80.76
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.917% 		0.00
99.54
95.08
88.47
77.00
5.00 %
99.94
0.06
99.07
93.74
86.79
73.58
5.50 %
99.83
0.17
98.38
92.47
83.72
70.39
6.00 %
99.54
0.46
97.51
90.90
79.78
65.64
6.50 %
99.30
0.70
96.06
88.76
75.90
61.47
7.00 %
99.07
0.93
93.80
86.15
72.31
57.76
7.50 %
98.61
1.39
91.77
83.20
68.02
54.58
8.00 %
97.51
2.49
90.21
79.14
63.15
52.14
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.91
98.33
94.91
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.44
97.22
93.06
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.98
96.48
92.04
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
98.43
95.93
90.47
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.63
97.87
94.73
87.60
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.917% 		0.00
99.26
96.58
93.15
83.81
5.00 %
99.91
0.09
98.70
96.11
92.23
80.20
5.50 %
99.72
0.28
98.06
95.19
89.82
76.69
6.00 %
99.26
0.74
97.22
94.26
85.94
73.08
6.50 %
98.89
1.11
96.30
93.06
82.05
69.94
7.00 %
98.52
1.48
95.10
90.84
78.45
66.88
7.50 %
97.78
2.22
94.36
88.34
74.01
64.75
8.00 %
96.11
3.89
93.06
84.64
69.84
62.72
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.38
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.96
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
95.22
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
89.81
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.38
84.82
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
80.87
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.56
77.75
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
87.94
74.01
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.34
84.41
72.14
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.84
80.25
70.27
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.52
76.51
67.78
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Small Cap Value Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Small Cap Value Asset Class

For the US Small Cap Value Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com