US Large Cap: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Large Cap asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.868% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.359%.

The last 30 years of the US Large Cap asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), the asset class has returned 9.58% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.8%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Mar 1993
 28 Feb 2023 7.236 8.359 9.58
[ 6.92 ] 		-50.80
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Large Cap page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.529
Jun 1902 		2.337
Jun 1902 		2.595
Sep 1929 		2.731
Sep 1929 		2.868
Sep 1929 		4.174
95% Succ. 		4.574
90% Succ. 		5.132
80% Succ. 		7.308
50% Succ.
Median 6.147
 6.409
 6.674
 6.986
 7.308
Average 6.352
 6.648
 6.944
 7.239
 7.535
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		15.386
Jul 1932 		15.549
Jul 1932 		15.712
Jul 1932 		15.876
Jul 1932 		16.039
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.529
 3.093
 3.424
 3.989
 6.147
75% 2.337
 3.405
 3.715
 4.287
 6.409
50% 2.595
 3.673
 3.970
 4.575
 6.674
25% 2.731
 3.953
 4.270
 4.874
 6.986
0% 2.868
 4.174
 4.574
 5.132
 7.308
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.322
Sep 1929 		2.458
Sep 1929 		2.595
Sep 1929 		2.731
Sep 1929 		2.868
Sep 1929 		3.914
95% Succ. 		4.264
90% Succ. 		4.937
80% Succ. 		7.893
50% Succ.
Median 7.044
 7.290
 7.484
 7.687
 7.893
Average 6.738
 7.003
 7.269
 7.534
 7.799
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		15.386
Jul 1932 		15.549
Jul 1932 		15.712
Jul 1932 		15.876
Jul 1932 		16.039
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.322
 3.097
 3.420
 4.040
 7.044
75% 2.458
 3.307
 3.626
 4.287
 7.290
50% 2.595
 3.510
 3.875
 4.515
 7.484
25% 2.731
 3.724
 4.056
 4.722
 7.687
0% 2.868
 3.914
 4.264
 4.937
 7.893
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.86
2.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.868% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.80
99.59
3.00 %
99.93
0.07
99.93
99.86
99.80
99.39
96.46
3.50 %
99.45
0.55
99.45
99.11
96.86
92.64
88.82
4.00 %
96.52
95% Succ.
4.174% 		3.48
96.52
94.34
89.30
85.00
79.69
4.50 %
91.00
90% Succ.
4.574% 		9.00
91.00
85.34
81.46
76.35
71.30
5.00 %
82.14
80% Succ.
5.132% 		17.86
82.14
78.05
74.10
69.12
63.67
5.50 %
74.98
25.02
74.98
71.37
66.46
61.15
56.65
6.00 %
69.05
30.95
69.05
64.35
59.37
54.46
51.87
6.50 %
62.71
37.29
62.71
57.81
52.08
48.94
46.15
7.00 %
55.35
50% Succ.
7.308% 		44.65
55.35
49.63
46.35
43.42
40.76
7.50 %
46.83
53.17
46.83
43.97
41.10
38.10
34.29
8.00 %
41.10
58.90
41.10
38.58
34.70
31.02
27.74
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.868% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.88
99.76
3.00 %
99.88
0.12
99.88
99.76
99.64
99.41
96.43
3.50 %
99.05
95% Succ.
3.914% 		0.95
99.05
98.45
95.01
91.80
88.59
4.00 %
93.94
90% Succ.
4.264% 		6.06
93.94
90.84
87.75
84.30
80.50
4.50 %
86.80
80% Succ.
4.937% 		13.20
86.80
83.35
80.14
77.05
73.13
5.00 %
79.79
20.21
79.79
77.41
74.44
70.39
68.13
5.50 %
74.79
25.21
74.79
71.11
67.90
66.71
64.92
6.00 %
69.20
30.80
69.20
66.59
65.40
63.26
61.71
6.50 %
65.52
34.48
65.52
63.73
60.52
58.15
55.89
7.00 %
60.29
39.71
60.29
57.07
54.82
52.32
50.18
7.50 %
54.22
50% Succ.
7.893% 		45.78
54.22
52.08
49.58
46.97
42.09
8.00 %
48.63
51.37
48.63
46.25
42.09
37.69
33.41
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class

For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Share this page