Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Large Cap asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.868% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.286%.
The last 30 years of the US Large Cap asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 10.95% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.8%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 8.420 | 9.286 |
10.95 [ 8.23 ] |
-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Large Cap page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.529 Jun 1902 |
2.337 Jun 1902 |
2.595 Sep 1929 |
2.731 Sep 1929 |
2.868 Sep 1929 |
95% |
3.096 |
3.407 |
3.676 |
3.954 |
4.176 |
|
90% |
3.427 |
3.724 |
3.973 |
4.272 |
4.588 |
|
80% |
3.999 |
4.302 |
4.593 |
4.893 |
5.154 |
|
50% Median WR |
6.226 |
6.465 |
6.742 |
7.008 |
7.342 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.322 Sep 1929 |
2.458 Sep 1929 |
2.595 Sep 1929 |
2.731 Sep 1929 |
2.868 Sep 1929 |
95% |
3.097 |
3.307 |
3.510 |
3.724 |
3.914 |
|
90% |
3.420 |
3.626 |
3.875 |
4.056 |
4.264 |
|
80% |
4.040 |
4.287 |
4.515 |
4.722 |
4.937 |
|
50% Median WR |
7.044 |
7.290 |
7.484 |
7.687 |
7.893 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
5.904 Sep 1987 |
6.142 Jul 1976 |
6.340 Apr 1976 |
6.536 Apr 1976 |
6.732 Apr 1976 |
95% |
6.134 |
6.397 |
6.614 |
6.819 |
7.015 |
|
90% |
6.661 |
6.900 |
7.108 |
7.317 |
7.525 |
|
80% |
7.189 |
7.454 |
7.705 |
7.932 |
8.146 |
|
50% Median WR |
7.930 |
8.173 |
8.444 |
8.731 |
8.966 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.868% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.80
|
99.60
|
3.00 % |
99.93
|
0.07 |
99.87
|
99.80
|
99.40
|
96.51
|
|
3.50 % |
99.46
|
0.54 |
99.13
|
96.91
|
92.74
|
88.98
|
|
4.00 % |
96.57
|
95% Succ. 4.176% |
3.43 |
94.42
|
89.45
|
85.22
|
79.97
|
4.50 % |
91.13
|
90% Succ. 4.588% |
8.87 |
85.55
|
81.72
|
76.68
|
71.71
|
5.00 % |
82.39
|
80% Succ. 5.154% |
17.61 |
78.36
|
74.46
|
69.56
|
64.18
|
5.50 % |
75.34
|
24.66 |
71.77
|
66.94
|
61.69
|
57.26
|
|
6.00 % |
69.49
|
30.51 |
64.85
|
59.95
|
55.11
|
52.55
|
|
6.50 % |
63.24
|
36.76 |
58.40
|
52.76
|
49.66
|
46.91
|
|
7.00 % |
55.98
|
50% Succ. 7.342% |
44.02 |
50.34
|
47.11
|
44.22
|
41.60
|
7.50 % |
47.58
|
52.42 |
44.76
|
41.94
|
38.71
|
34.48
|
|
8.00 % |
41.94
|
58.06 |
39.31
|
34.95
|
31.18
|
27.69
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.868% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.88
|
99.76
|
3.00 % |
99.88
|
0.12 |
99.76
|
99.64
|
99.41
|
96.43
|
|
3.50 % |
99.05
|
95% Succ. 3.914% |
0.95 |
98.45
|
95.01
|
91.80
|
88.59
|
4.00 % |
93.94
|
90% Succ. 4.264% |
6.06 |
90.84
|
87.75
|
84.30
|
80.50
|
4.50 % |
86.80
|
80% Succ. 4.937% |
13.20 |
83.35
|
80.14
|
77.05
|
73.13
|
5.00 % |
79.79
|
20.21 |
77.41
|
74.44
|
70.39
|
68.13
|
|
5.50 % |
74.79
|
25.21 |
71.11
|
67.90
|
66.71
|
64.92
|
|
6.00 % |
69.20
|
30.80 |
66.59
|
65.40
|
63.26
|
61.71
|
|
6.50 % |
65.52
|
34.48 |
63.73
|
60.52
|
58.15
|
55.89
|
|
7.00 % |
60.29
|
39.71 |
57.07
|
54.82
|
52.32
|
50.18
|
|
7.50 % |
54.22
|
50% Succ. 7.893% |
45.78 |
52.08
|
49.58
|
46.49
|
40.90
|
8.00 % |
48.63
|
51.37 |
46.02
|
41.02
|
36.50
|
31.87
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.93
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.732% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.85
|
92.95
|
91.70
|
7.00 % |
95.44
|
95% Succ. 7.015% |
4.56 |
92.95
|
90.87
|
87.14
|
83.82
|
7.50 % |
90.46
|
90% Succ. 7.525% |
9.54 |
86.31
|
83.40
|
77.18
|
64.73
|
8.00 % |
82.57
|
17.43 |
78.42
|
65.98
|
56.02
|
46.89
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class
For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com