US Large Cap: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 June 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Large Cap asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.868% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30 years (last update: June 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.182%.

The last 30 years of the US Large Cap asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: June 2024), the asset class has returned 10.68% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.8%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation

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Timeframes ending at Jun 2024			Withdrawal Rate (%)		Investment Performances
Timeframe	Period from	Period to	Perpetual	Safe	Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ]	Max Drawdown(%)
30 Years	1 Jul 1994	30 Jun 2024	8.254	9.182	10.68 [ 7.94 ]	-50.80 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009

Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at June 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Large Cap page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jun 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:

SWR 100% Success

PWR 100% Capital Protection

Period: Jan 1871 - Jun 2024

Period: Jul 1924 - Jun 2024

Period: Jul 1974 - Jun 2024

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	1.529 Jun 1902	2.337 Jun 1902	2.595 Sep 1929	2.731 Sep 1929	2.868 Sep 1929
	95%	3.096	3.407	3.676	3.954	4.176
	90%	3.427	3.724	3.973	4.272	4.588
	80%	3.995	4.300	4.586	4.887	5.153
	50% Median WR	6.204	6.446	6.731	7.005	7.334

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	2.322 Sep 1929	2.458 Sep 1929	2.595 Sep 1929	2.731 Sep 1929	2.868 Sep 1929
	95%	3.097	3.307	3.510	3.724	3.914
	90%	3.420	3.626	3.875	4.056	4.264
	80%	4.040	4.287	4.515	4.722	4.937
	50% Median WR	7.044	7.290	7.484	7.687	7.893

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	5.904 Sep 1987	6.142 Jul 1976	6.340 Apr 1976	6.536 Apr 1976	6.732 Apr 1976
	95%	6.106	6.367	6.598	6.799	7.000
	90%	6.652	6.844	7.064	7.304	7.507
	80%	7.160	7.429	7.674	7.888	8.113
	50% Median WR	7.904	8.124	8.411	8.665	8.940

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jun 2024

Period: Jul 1924 - Jun 2024

Period: Jul 1974 - Jun 2024

Table Chart

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Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	99.87
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.868%	0.00	100.00	100.00	99.80	99.60
3.00 %	99.93		0.07	99.87	99.80	99.39	96.49
3.50 %	99.46		0.54	99.12	96.90	92.72	88.94
4.00 %	96.56	95% Succ. 4.176%	3.44	94.40	89.41	85.17	79.91
4.50 %	91.10	90% Succ. 4.588%	8.90	85.50	81.66	76.60	71.61
5.00 %	82.33	80% Succ. 5.153%	17.67	78.29	74.38	69.45	64.06
5.50 %	75.25		24.75	71.68	66.82	61.56	57.11
6.00 %	69.39		30.61	64.73	59.81	54.96	52.39
6.50 %	63.12		36.88	58.26	52.60	49.49	46.73
7.00 %	55.83	50% Succ. 7.334%	44.17	50.17	46.93	44.03	41.40
7.50 %	47.40		52.60	44.57	41.74	38.50	34.25
8.00 %	41.74		58.26	39.11	34.73	30.95	27.58

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

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Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.868%	0.00	100.00	100.00	99.88	99.76
3.00 %	99.88		0.12	99.76	99.64	99.41	96.43
3.50 %	99.05	95% Succ. 3.914%	0.95	98.45	95.01	91.80	88.59
4.00 %	93.94	90% Succ. 4.264%	6.06	90.84	87.75	84.30	80.50
4.50 %	86.80	80% Succ. 4.937%	13.20	83.35	80.14	77.05	73.13
5.00 %	79.79		20.21	77.41	74.44	70.39	68.13
5.50 %	74.79		25.21	71.11	67.90	66.71	64.92
6.00 %	69.20		30.80	66.59	65.40	63.26	61.71
6.50 %	65.52		34.48	63.73	60.52	58.15	55.89
7.00 %	60.29		39.71	57.07	54.82	52.32	50.18
7.50 %	54.22	50% Succ. 7.893%	45.78	52.08	49.58	46.49	40.90
8.00 %	48.63		51.37	46.02	41.02	36.50	32.10

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Swipe left to see all data

Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
5.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
5.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
6.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	97.93
6.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 6.732%	0.00	100.00	95.44	92.53	91.29
7.00 %	95.02	95% Succ. 7.000%	4.98	92.53	90.46	86.31	82.99
7.50 %	90.04	90% Succ. 7.507%	9.96	85.48	82.57	76.35	63.49
8.00 %	81.74		18.26	77.59	64.32	54.36	46.06

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class

For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-Year 60-Year 70-Year 80-Year

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5%

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

The last 30 years of the US Large Cap asset class

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jun 2024)

Withdrawals and Success Rate

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