US Large Cap: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 March 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Large Cap asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 5.559% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

Considering the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 15.117%.

The last 10 years of the US Large Cap asset class

Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the asset class has returned 12.85% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -23.93%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Mar 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Apr 2014
 31 Mar 2024 9.152 15.117 12.85
[ 9.75 ] 		-23.93
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Large Cap page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1908 		0.000
Jun 1910 		0.757
Mar 1999 		3.632
Sep 1929 		5.559
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.280
 3.057
 5.751
 8.250
90%
 0.000
 1.749
 4.087
 6.614
 8.877
80%
 2.236
 4.271
 6.233
 8.307
 10.350
50%
Median WR 		6.887
 8.564
 10.350
 12.210
 13.831
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Apr 1928 		0.000
Sep 1929 		0.757
Mar 1999 		3.632
Sep 1929 		5.559
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.026
 2.787
 5.371
 7.927
90%
 0.000
 1.226
 3.695
 6.192
 8.681
80%
 1.413
 3.536
 5.734
 8.018
 10.114
50%
Median WR 		7.191
 8.911
 10.556
 12.324
 13.900
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jul 1998 		0.000
Dec 1998 		0.757
Mar 1999 		4.439
Sep 2000 		7.185
Sep 2000
95%
 0.000
 0.401
 3.407
 5.809
 8.755
90%
 1.409
 3.616
 5.767
 8.073
 9.951
80%
 4.264
 5.939
 7.540
 9.129
 10.709
50%
Median WR 		8.508
 10.142
 11.707
 13.300
 14.791
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1924 - Mar 2024
Period: Apr 1974 - Mar 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.13
89.19
80.76
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.15
86.98
78.90
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.23
85.00
77.56
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.31
83.20
74.65
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
90.64
81.34
71.05
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.71
88.08
78.84
66.92
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.20
85.70
77.09
63.14
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.559% 		0.00
96.16
83.72
73.60
60.29
6.00 %
99.88
0.12
93.78
81.40
69.65
56.22
6.50 %
99.77
0.23
90.93
78.84
64.94
52.67
7.00 %
99.19
0.81
87.33
76.45
62.44
48.78
7.50 %
98.31
1.69
84.19
72.79
59.19
44.48
8.00 %
96.28
3.72
82.09
68.43
55.47
40.93
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.80
86.96
78.26
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.39
84.37
76.69
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.52
82.33
75.95
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.03
80.11
74.28
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
87.97
78.45
71.05
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.54
85.29
76.97
66.60
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
97.32
83.16
75.86
62.53
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.559% 		0.00
94.54
81.13
72.71
59.67
6.00 %
99.81
0.19
91.30
78.91
68.92
57.08
6.50 %
99.63
0.37
88.16
76.97
63.74
54.95
7.00 %
98.70
1.30
84.83
74.84
61.79
51.71
7.50 %
97.32
95% Succ.
7.927% 		2.68
82.33
71.05
58.93
47.73
8.00 %
94.17
5.83
80.20
66.70
56.52
43.76
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.34
94.18
88.98
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.26
92.52
88.36
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.01
91.48
87.73
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.80
90.23
87.32
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.18
89.19
83.58
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
93.76
88.57
77.13
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.34
92.10
87.94
70.27
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.63
91.06
84.41
67.57
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.80
89.40
78.38
64.86
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
94.39
88.77
70.69
63.20
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.185% 		0.00
93.14
86.07
68.40
61.12
7.50 %
99.38
0.62
91.89
80.87
66.11
56.96
8.00 %
97.30
2.70
90.44
72.97
63.83
53.64
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at March 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class

For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

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BestRetirementPortfolio.com