US Large Cap: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Large Cap asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.301% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

Considering the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.272%.

The last 20 years of the US Large Cap asset class

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the asset class has returned 10.1% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.8%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 7.062 9.272 10.10
[ 7.43 ] 		-50.80
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Large Cap page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Large Cap asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1901 		0.819
Sep 1929 		1.647
Sep 1929 		2.474
Sep 1929 		3.301
Sep 1929 		4.813
95% Succ. 		5.282
90% Succ. 		6.051
80% Succ. 		8.825
50% Succ.
Median 6.286
 6.895
 7.560
 8.170
 8.825
Average 6.277
 6.935
 7.593
 8.252
 8.910
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		16.023
Jun 1949 		16.428
Jun 1949 		16.833
Jun 1949 		17.299
Jul 1932 		17.821
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.618
 2.158
 3.062
 6.286
75% 0.819
 2.441
 3.059
 3.814
 6.895
50% 1.647
 3.378
 3.772
 4.641
 7.560
25% 2.474
 4.163
 4.587
 5.361
 8.170
0% 3.301
 4.813
 5.282
 6.051
 8.825
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Sep 1929 		0.819
Sep 1929 		1.647
Sep 1929 		2.474
Sep 1929 		3.301
Sep 1929 		4.633
95% Succ. 		4.921
90% Succ. 		5.728
80% Succ. 		8.938
50% Succ.
Median 6.511
 7.134
 7.791
 8.389
 8.938
Average 6.490
 7.126
 7.763
 8.399
 9.035
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		16.023
Jun 1949 		16.428
Jun 1949 		16.833
Jun 1949 		17.299
Jul 1932 		17.821
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.417
 1.992
 2.802
 6.511
75% 0.819
 2.313
 2.892
 3.563
 7.134
50% 1.647
 3.179
 3.614
 4.336
 7.791
25% 2.474
 3.929
 4.271
 5.053
 8.389
0% 3.301
 4.633
 4.921
 5.728
 8.938
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.769
Apr 2000 		2.440
Apr 2000 		3.110
Apr 2000 		3.780
Apr 2000 		4.450
Apr 2000 		4.936
95% Succ. 		5.524
90% Succ. 		6.863
80% Succ. 		9.972
50% Succ.
Median 6.953
 7.662
 8.415
 9.178
 9.972
Average 7.125
 7.700
 8.276
 8.851
 9.426
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		14.243
Aug 1982 		14.773
Aug 1982 		15.304
Aug 1982 		15.835
Aug 1982 		16.365
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.769
 2.615
 3.384
 4.766
 6.953
75% 2.440
 3.175
 3.865
 5.398
 7.662
50% 3.110
 3.751
 4.427
 5.939
 8.415
25% 3.780
 4.341
 4.961
 6.371
 9.178
0% 4.450
 4.936
 5.524
 6.863
 9.972
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Large Cap asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.75
97.67
91.75
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.94
99.37
94.90
85.82
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.301% 		0.00
100.00
99.75
97.54
90.74
80.40
3.50 %
99.87
0.13
99.87
99.12
93.95
83.49
76.50
4.00 %
99.75
0.25
99.75
96.22
87.33
78.32
73.09
4.50 %
97.98
95% Succ.
4.813% 		2.02
97.98
91.05
81.29
74.23
68.24
5.00 %
92.69
90% Succ.
5.282% 		7.31
92.69
83.81
77.06
69.12
62.89
5.50 %
87.52
12.48
87.52
78.64
69.63
64.78
59.42
6.00 %
80.66
80% Succ.
6.051% 		19.34
80.66
72.46
66.41
60.62
53.25
6.50 %
74.04
25.96
74.04
68.43
62.70
54.82
46.94
7.00 %
70.95
29.05
70.95
64.02
56.21
48.83
39.45
7.50 %
66.86
33.14
66.86
58.41
50.41
41.78
33.59
8.00 %
60.62
39.38
60.62
51.98
44.42
34.72
28.99
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
97.19
89.80
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.90
99.06
93.44
83.87
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.301% 		0.00
100.00
99.58
96.57
88.35
78.15
3.50 %
99.79
0.21
99.79
98.54
91.26
80.33
73.99
4.00 %
99.58
0.42
99.58
93.86
83.77
74.92
70.66
4.50 %
96.67
95% Succ.
4.633% 		3.33
96.67
86.68
77.73
71.49
66.70
5.00 %
88.14
11.86
88.14
80.23
73.47
68.47
62.02
5.50 %
82.21
80% Succ.
5.728% 		17.79
82.21
75.55
68.89
64.10
59.73
6.00 %
77.84
22.16
77.84
70.86
66.39
60.87
55.46
6.50 %
72.84
27.16
72.84
67.43
62.96
56.30
50.16
7.00 %
69.82
30.18
69.82
64.20
57.23
51.51
43.08
7.50 %
65.66
34.34
65.66
59.21
52.45
45.06
37.57
8.00 %
60.25
39.75
60.25
53.69
47.35
38.40
32.99
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
96.95
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
93.07
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.89
93.35
88.92
4.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.450% 		0.00
100.00
99.17
93.35
89.20
85.60
4.50 %
99.17
95% Succ.
4.936% 		0.83
99.17
93.35
88.92
85.60
82.55
5.00 %
93.91
6.09
93.91
89.20
86.43
82.55
78.67
5.50 %
90.03
90% Succ.
5.524% 		9.97
90.03
86.70
81.72
78.95
75.90
6.00 %
86.70
13.30
86.70
81.72
79.22
76.18
70.36
6.50 %
82.27
80% Succ.
6.863% 		17.73
82.27
79.22
76.45
71.19
60.39
7.00 %
79.22
20.78
79.22
77.01
71.75
65.10
48.75
7.50 %
76.45
23.55
76.45
72.30
65.37
53.74
40.72
8.00 %
72.30
27.70
72.30
66.48
60.39
43.21
35.73
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Large Cap Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Large Cap Asset Class

For the US Large Cap Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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