Total US Stock Market: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Total US Stock Market asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.895% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.236%.

The last 30 years of the Total US Stock Market asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 10.96% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation

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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024			Withdrawal Rate (%)		Investment Performances
Timeframe	Period from	Period to	Perpetual	Safe	Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ]	Max Drawdown(%)
30 Years	1 Dec 1994	30 Nov 2024	8.376	9.236	10.96 [ 8.23 ]	-50.84 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009

Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at November 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Stock Market page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Stock Market asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:

SWR 100% Success

PWR 100% Capital Protection

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024

Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024

Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	1.062 Jun 1902	1.981 Jun 1902	2.619 Sep 1929	2.757 Sep 1929	2.895 Sep 1929
	95%	3.206	3.476	3.787	4.090	4.369
	90%	3.524	3.798	4.053	4.328	4.660
	80%	4.108	4.408	4.689	4.952	5.210
	50% Median WR	6.347	6.643	6.909	7.170	7.435

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	2.343 Sep 1929	2.481 Sep 1929	2.619 Sep 1929	2.757 Sep 1929	2.895 Sep 1929
	95%	3.381	3.606	3.821	4.032	4.223
	90%	3.680	3.881	4.110	4.309	4.532
	80%	4.345	4.563	4.780	5.034	5.261
	50% Median WR	7.099	7.332	7.548	7.769	7.990

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	5.841 Sep 1987	6.097 Sep 1987	6.353 Sep 1987	6.609 Sep 1987	6.865 Sep 1987
	95%	6.604	6.805	7.013	7.250	7.452
	90%	6.768	7.016	7.266	7.504	7.756
	80%	7.193	7.466	7.720	7.977	8.216
	50% Median WR	7.796	8.079	8.346	8.596	8.819

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Stock Market asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Nov 2024

Period: Dec 1924 - Nov 2024

Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024

Table Chart

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Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	99.93	99.73
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.895%	0.00	100.00	100.00	99.80	99.46
3.00 %	99.93		0.07	99.87	99.66	99.40	97.18
3.50 %	99.53		0.47	99.46	98.72	94.96	90.73
4.00 %	98.59	95% Succ. 4.369%	1.41	96.37	90.93	86.56	81.72
4.50 %	93.08	90% Succ. 4.660%	6.92	87.03	83.33	78.23	74.06
5.00 %	83.74	80% Succ. 5.210%	16.26	78.90	76.08	71.71	66.06
5.50 %	76.48		23.52	73.66	68.95	63.24	57.93
6.00 %	70.83		29.17	66.26	61.29	56.25	53.43
6.50 %	64.58		35.42	59.41	54.50	51.48	48.12
7.00 %	57.80	50% Succ. 7.435%	42.20	52.55	48.59	44.83	42.00
7.50 %	49.13		50.87	45.03	42.20	38.78	34.48
8.00 %	42.47		57.53	38.91	34.54	30.85	26.68

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

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Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.895%	0.00	100.00	100.00	99.88	99.76
3.00 %	99.88		0.12	99.76	99.64	99.52	99.05
3.50 %	99.17		0.83	99.05	98.22	96.91	93.22
4.00 %	97.50	95% Succ. 4.223%	2.50	95.24	91.56	87.75	84.90
4.50 %	90.73	90% Succ. 4.532%	9.27	87.40	84.78	80.62	78.12
5.00 %	83.83	80% Succ. 5.261%	16.17	80.02	78.12	75.03	72.41
5.50 %	77.29		22.71	75.27	72.41	69.68	66.83
6.00 %	72.41		27.59	69.80	67.78	65.40	63.38
6.50 %	68.01		31.99	65.64	63.61	61.47	58.26
7.00 %	63.61		36.39	61.12	57.55	53.63	51.49
7.50 %	56.96	50% Succ. 7.990%	43.04	52.91	50.54	47.56	42.09
8.00 %	49.94		50.06	46.14	41.50	37.10	31.51

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Swipe left to see all data

Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
5.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
5.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
6.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	99.59
6.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 6.865%	0.00	100.00	99.59	98.76	96.68
7.00 %	99.59	95% Succ. 7.452%	0.41	98.76	95.44	90.04	87.14
7.50 %	93.78	90% Succ. 7.756%	6.22	90.04	86.31	79.25	66.39
8.00 %	85.06		14.94	78.01	66.39	53.94	38.17

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Stock Market Asset Class

For the Total US Stock Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-Year 60-Year 70-Year 80-Year

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5%

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

The last 30 years of the Total US Stock Market asset class

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

Withdrawals and Success Rate

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