Last Update: 31 January 2026

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Total US Stock Market asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 5.426% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

Considering the last 10 years (last update: January 2026), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 16.663%.

The last 10 years of the Total US Stock Market asset class

Over the last 10 years (last update: January 2026), the asset class has returned 15.07% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -24.81%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Jan 2026
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Feb 2016
 31 Jan 2026 11.048 16.663 15.07
[ 11.49 ] 		-24.81
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2025

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Stock Market page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jan 2026)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Stock Market asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1926 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1976 - Jan 2026
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1908 		0.000
Jun 1910 		1.421
Jul 1911 		3.563
Sep 1929 		5.426
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.730
 3.507
 6.065
 8.369
90%
 0.073
 2.165
 4.491
 6.873
 9.033
80%
 2.651
 4.529
 6.612
 8.577
 10.651
50%
Median WR 		6.983
 8.710
 10.495
 12.298
 13.958
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Apr 1928 		0.000
Sep 1929 		1.653
Mar 1999 		3.563
Sep 1929 		5.426
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.597
 3.245
 5.723
 8.053
90%
 0.000
 1.839
 4.161
 6.566
 8.902
80%
 2.201
 4.275
 6.303
 8.409
 10.431
50%
Median WR 		7.395
 8.981
 10.679
 12.431
 14.015
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Nov 1998 		0.000
Jan 1999 		1.653
Mar 1999 		4.875
Sep 2000 		7.497
Sep 2000
95%
 0.000
 1.432
 4.283
 6.611
 9.350
90%
 2.287
 4.425
 6.582
 8.483
 10.279
80%
 4.878
 6.499
 8.138
 9.704
 11.414
50%
Median WR 		8.405
 10.052
 11.640
 13.201
 14.731
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Stock Market asset class, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1926 - Jan 2026
Period: Feb 1976 - Jan 2026
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.71
90.76
82.49
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.56
88.63
80.60
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.36
87.08
78.53
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.01
85.02
75.83
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
92.65
82.95
73.08
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.77
89.90
80.14
69.86
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426% 		0.00
99.20
87.31
78.36
66.42
5.50 %
99.94
0.06
97.24
85.30
75.72
63.15
6.00 %
99.83
0.17
95.35
83.41
72.33
58.90
6.50 %
99.77
0.23
92.37
80.37
68.77
54.02
7.00 %
99.31
0.69
88.98
78.24
65.21
49.77
7.50 %
98.62
1.38
85.88
74.97
61.25
44.72
8.00 %
97.30
2.70
83.64
71.35
57.06
40.36
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
89.27
80.67
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.61
86.77
79.09
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.85
85.48
77.24
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.62
82.79
75.95
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
91.03
80.85
74.01
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.63
87.97
78.82
71.05
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426% 		0.00
98.89
85.48
77.52
67.44
5.50 %
99.91
0.09
96.21
83.35
75.76
64.01
6.00 %
99.72
0.28
93.71
81.78
72.71
61.24
6.50 %
99.63
0.37
90.29
79.00
69.38
57.17
7.00 %
98.89
1.11
87.23
77.24
65.77
53.56
7.50 %
97.78
2.22
84.74
74.01
61.79
48.75
8.00 %
95.74
4.26
82.33
70.95
58.74
43.48
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.58
94.80
90.44
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.75
94.18
89.60
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.51
94.18
88.98
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.43
92.10
88.57
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.01
90.85
87.32
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.39
89.60
83.78
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
94.18
89.19
78.38
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
98.34
92.93
88.57
74.84
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.84
91.68
84.41
72.77
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.01
90.02
79.83
68.61
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.497% 		0.00
94.39
89.19
75.88
65.49
7.50 %
99.58
0.42
93.56
85.45
72.14
60.29
8.00 %
98.54
1.46
92.72
80.46
69.85
55.09
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Stock Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2025

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Stock Market Asset Class

For the Total US Stock Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

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BestRetirementPortfolio.com