Warren Buffett Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 6.411% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 70.18% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 11.79% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -22.06%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 14.069%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Nov 2014
 31 Oct 2024 7.934 14.069 11.79
[ 8.65 ] 		-22.06
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jun 1908 		0.000
Jun 1910 		1.554
Mar 1999 		4.501
Sep 1929 		6.411
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.553
 3.357
 6.072
 8.417
90%
 0.000
 1.998
 4.305
 6.799
 9.067
80%
 2.279
 4.309
 6.327
 8.356
 10.408
50%
Median WR 		6.623
 8.318
 10.075
 11.958
 13.694
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		17.805
Jul 1877 		19.226
Jul 1877 		21.491
Jul 1932 		24.174
Jul 1932 		26.857
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Apr 1928 		0.000
Oct 1964 		1.554
Mar 1999 		4.501
Sep 1929 		6.411
Sep 1929
95%
 0.000
 0.393
 3.189
 5.758
 8.203
90%
 0.000
 1.495
 3.973
 6.411
 8.966
80%
 1.648
 3.766
 5.953
 8.140
 10.241
50%
Median WR 		6.813
 8.491
 10.156
 11.941
 13.624
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		16.862
Jul 1949 		18.808
Jul 1932 		21.491
Jul 1932 		24.174
Jul 1932 		26.857
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Nov 1998 		0.000
Jan 1999 		1.554
Mar 1999 		4.900
Sep 2000 		7.584
Sep 2000
95%
 0.000
 0.940
 3.773
 6.154
 9.020
90%
 1.478
 3.733
 5.961
 8.241
 10.143
80%
 4.088
 5.811
 7.509
 9.179
 10.858
50%
Median WR 		8.049
 9.785
 11.398
 13.025
 14.575
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		15.270
Aug 1982 		16.721
Aug 1982 		18.172
Aug 1982 		19.623
Aug 1982 		21.074
Aug 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.77
89.98
81.30
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.44
88.07
78.87
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.87
85.70
76.95
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.50
83.96
73.94
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.07
81.41
70.18
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.35
78.92
65.43
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.31
86.86
76.61
62.30
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.51
84.31
73.71
58.66
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.411% 		0.00
95.37
81.76
68.96
54.95
6.50 %
99.94
0.06
91.60
79.04
64.39
50.61
7.00 %
99.83
0.17
88.30
76.14
61.49
46.67
7.50 %
99.48
0.52
84.89
72.44
58.25
42.39
8.00 %
97.92
2.08
82.80
67.57
53.33
37.58
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.81
88.25
78.54
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.43
86.12
77.06
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.02
83.44
75.39
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.97
81.22
73.27
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.92
78.72
69.57
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
87.14
77.34
64.11
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.98
85.01
75.30
60.96
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.58
82.24
72.53
57.91
6.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
6.411% 		0.00
93.80
79.74
67.53
55.60
6.50 %
99.91
0.09
89.08
77.24
62.81
52.54
7.00 %
99.72
0.28
86.40
74.38
60.13
48.38
7.50 %
99.17
0.83
83.44
70.40
57.54
44.68
8.00 %
96.67
3.33
81.22
65.49
54.02
39.69
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.58
94.18
89.19
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.54
94.18
88.98
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.26
92.10
88.77
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.01
90.85
87.73
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.59
89.60
82.54
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.18
89.19
74.43
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
93.14
88.77
70.27
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.51
91.68
85.24
66.94
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.63
89.81
77.13
65.49
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
94.59
89.40
70.89
63.41
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
93.56
86.69
68.40
59.88
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.584% 		0.00
92.31
80.04
66.11
56.76
8.00 %
98.54
1.46
91.27
72.14
64.45
51.56
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio

For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com