Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 6.411% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 70.06% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 11.71% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -22.06%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 14.548%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 8.197 | 14.548 |
11.71 [ 8.64 ] |
-22.06 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1908 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.554 Mar 1999 |
4.501 Sep 1929 |
6.411 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.553 |
3.357 |
6.072 |
8.417 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
1.979 |
4.282 |
6.782 |
9.052 |
||
|
80% |
2.266 |
4.300 |
6.307 |
8.326 |
10.398 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.569 |
8.313 |
10.054 |
11.947 |
13.682 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
17.805 Jul 1877 |
19.226 Jul 1877 |
21.491 Jul 1932 |
24.174 Jul 1932 |
26.857 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Apr 1928 |
0.000 Oct 1964 |
1.554 Mar 1999 |
4.501 Sep 1929 |
6.411 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.393 |
3.189 |
5.758 |
8.203 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
1.495 |
3.973 |
6.411 |
8.966 |
||
|
80% |
1.648 |
3.766 |
5.953 |
8.140 |
10.241 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.813 |
8.491 |
10.156 |
11.941 |
13.624 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
16.862 Jul 1949 |
18.808 Jul 1932 |
21.491 Jul 1932 |
24.174 Jul 1932 |
26.857 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Nov 1998 |
0.000 Jan 1999 |
1.554 Mar 1999 |
4.900 Sep 2000 |
7.584 Sep 2000 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.940 |
3.773 |
6.154 |
9.020 |
||
|
90% |
1.478 |
3.733 |
5.953 |
8.190 |
10.105 |
||
|
80% |
4.058 |
5.792 |
7.477 |
9.112 |
10.766 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
8.034 |
9.699 |
11.376 |
13.025 |
14.575 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
15.270 Aug 1982 |
16.721 Aug 1982 |
18.172 Aug 1982 |
19.623 Aug 1982 |
21.074 Aug 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.77
|
89.94
|
81.22
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.43
|
88.02
|
78.78
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.86
|
85.64
|
76.86
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.48
|
83.90
|
73.84
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.03
|
81.34
|
70.06
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.30
|
78.84
|
65.29
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.30
|
86.80
|
76.51
|
62.15
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.50
|
84.24
|
73.60
|
58.49
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.411% |
0.00 |
95.35
|
81.69
|
68.84
|
54.77
|
| 6.50 % |
99.94
|
0.06 |
91.57
|
78.95
|
64.24
|
50.41
|
|
| 7.00 % |
99.83
|
0.17 |
88.26
|
76.05
|
61.34
|
46.45
|
|
| 7.50 % |
99.48
|
0.52 |
84.83
|
72.33
|
58.08
|
42.15
|
|
| 8.00 % |
97.91
|
2.09 |
82.73
|
67.44
|
53.14
|
37.50
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.81
|
88.25
|
78.54
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.43
|
86.12
|
77.06
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.02
|
83.44
|
75.39
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.97
|
81.22
|
73.27
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.92
|
78.72
|
69.57
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.14
|
77.34
|
64.11
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.98
|
85.01
|
75.30
|
60.96
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.58
|
82.24
|
72.53
|
57.91
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.411% |
0.00 |
93.80
|
79.74
|
67.53
|
55.60
|
| 6.50 % |
99.91
|
0.09 |
89.08
|
77.24
|
62.81
|
52.54
|
|
| 7.00 % |
99.72
|
0.28 |
86.40
|
74.38
|
60.13
|
48.38
|
|
| 7.50 % |
99.17
|
0.83 |
83.44
|
70.40
|
57.54
|
44.68
|
|
| 8.00 % |
96.67
|
3.33 |
81.22
|
65.49
|
54.02
|
39.96
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
94.18
|
88.98
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.54
|
94.18
|
88.36
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.26
|
92.10
|
87.94
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.01
|
90.85
|
86.69
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.59
|
89.40
|
81.50
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.18
|
88.57
|
73.39
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.79
|
93.14
|
87.94
|
69.23
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.51
|
91.68
|
84.41
|
65.70
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.63
|
89.60
|
76.09
|
64.24
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.59
|
88.77
|
69.85
|
62.16
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.56
|
85.86
|
67.36
|
58.63
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.584% |
0.00 |
92.31
|
79.21
|
64.86
|
55.30
|
| 8.00 % |
98.54
|
1.46 |
91.06
|
71.10
|
63.20
|
50.73
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
