Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 10.27% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.953%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 7.856 | 7.953 |
10.27 [ 6.50 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.792 Sep 1929 |
2.804 Sep 1929 |
2.815 Sep 1929 |
2.827 Sep 1929 |
2.838 Sep 1929 |
3.873 95% Succ. |
4.073 90% Succ. |
4.593 80% Succ. |
5.830 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.749 |
5.766 |
5.783 |
5.807 |
5.830 | |||||
Average |
6.134 |
6.157 |
6.180 |
6.203 |
6.226 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.588 Jul 1932 |
12.606 Jul 1932 |
12.623 Jul 1932 |
12.641 Jul 1932 |
12.659 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.792 |
3.787 |
3.967 |
4.518 |
5.749 |
75% |
2.804 |
3.813 |
3.988 |
4.537 |
5.766 |
|
50% |
2.815 |
3.835 |
4.006 |
4.557 |
5.783 |
|
25% |
2.827 |
3.855 |
4.039 |
4.576 |
5.807 |
|
0% |
2.838 |
3.873 |
4.073 |
4.593 |
5.830 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.792 Sep 1929 |
2.804 Sep 1929 |
2.815 Sep 1929 |
2.827 Sep 1929 |
2.838 Sep 1929 |
3.829 95% Succ. |
4.354 90% Succ. |
5.263 80% Succ. |
7.002 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.926 |
6.945 |
6.964 |
6.983 |
7.002 | |||||
Average |
6.796 |
6.816 |
6.836 |
6.856 |
6.876 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.588 Jul 1932 |
12.606 Jul 1932 |
12.623 Jul 1932 |
12.641 Jul 1932 |
12.659 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.792 |
3.784 |
4.302 |
5.206 |
6.926 |
75% |
2.804 |
3.796 |
4.315 |
5.220 |
6.945 |
|
50% |
2.815 |
3.807 |
4.328 |
5.234 |
6.964 |
|
25% |
2.827 |
3.818 |
4.341 |
5.249 |
6.983 |
|
0% |
2.838 |
3.829 |
4.354 |
5.263 |
7.002 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.838% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.00 % |
99.80
|
0.20 |
99.80
|
99.80
|
99.80
|
99.80
|
99.80
|
|
3.50 % |
98.79
|
95% Succ. 3.873% |
1.21 |
98.79
|
98.79
|
98.69
|
98.58
|
98.48
|
4.00 % |
92.32
|
90% Succ. 4.073% |
7.68 |
92.32
|
91.61
|
90.39
|
89.69
|
89.48
|
4.50 % |
81.90
|
80% Succ. 4.593% |
18.10 |
81.90
|
81.80
|
81.09
|
80.79
|
80.49
|
5.00 % |
70.98
|
29.02 |
70.98
|
70.58
|
70.17
|
69.57
|
68.76
|
|
5.50 % |
57.94
|
50% Succ. 5.830% |
42.06 |
57.94
|
57.53
|
57.13
|
56.72
|
56.52
|
6.00 % |
47.02
|
52.98 |
47.02
|
46.81
|
46.51
|
45.90
|
45.50
|
|
6.50 % |
39.74
|
60.26 |
39.74
|
39.23
|
38.83
|
38.73
|
38.52
|
|
7.00 % |
34.48
|
65.52 |
34.48
|
34.28
|
34.18
|
33.77
|
33.57
|
|
7.50 % |
28.01
|
71.99 |
28.01
|
27.70
|
26.69
|
26.09
|
25.18
|
|
8.00 % |
16.28
|
83.72 |
16.28
|
15.87
|
15.57
|
15.47
|
15.27
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.838% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.00 % |
99.45
|
0.55 |
99.45
|
99.45
|
99.45
|
99.45
|
99.45
|
|
3.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 3.829% |
3.32 |
96.68
|
96.68
|
96.68
|
96.68
|
96.68
|
4.00 % |
93.91
|
90% Succ. 4.354% |
6.09 |
93.91
|
93.91
|
93.35
|
93.07
|
93.07
|
4.50 % |
87.53
|
12.47 |
87.53
|
87.53
|
87.53
|
87.53
|
87.53
|
|
5.00 % |
82.27
|
80% Succ. 5.263% |
17.73 |
82.27
|
82.27
|
82.27
|
81.99
|
81.72
|
5.50 % |
77.01
|
22.99 |
77.01
|
76.45
|
76.18
|
75.90
|
75.90
|
|
6.00 % |
67.87
|
32.13 |
67.87
|
67.59
|
67.31
|
66.76
|
66.20
|
|
6.50 % |
59.28
|
40.72 |
59.28
|
58.17
|
57.89
|
57.89
|
57.62
|
|
7.00 % |
50.14
|
50% Succ. 7.002% |
49.86 |
50.14
|
49.58
|
49.31
|
48.75
|
48.20
|
7.50 % |
39.89
|
60.11 |
39.89
|
39.89
|
38.50
|
37.95
|
37.40
|
|
8.00 % |
27.98
|
72.02 |
27.98
|
27.70
|
27.15
|
26.87
|
26.32
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com