Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.237% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 97.31% of cases. In the 78.82% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.94% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.448%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Nov 1994 |
31 Oct 2024 | 7.412 | 8.448 |
9.94 [ 7.24 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.785 Jun 1902 |
2.526 Jun 1902 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
3.160 |
3.452 |
3.737 |
3.992 |
4.248 |
||
90% |
3.428 |
3.731 |
4.006 |
4.314 |
4.630 |
||
80% |
3.960 |
4.276 |
4.571 |
4.841 |
5.148 |
||
50% Median WR |
5.916 |
6.206 |
6.469 |
6.728 |
7.142 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
13.706 Jul 1932 |
13.901 Jul 1932 |
14.095 Jul 1932 |
14.290 Jul 1932 |
14.485 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.575 Sep 1929 |
2.741 Sep 1929 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
3.166 |
3.348 |
3.592 |
3.786 |
4.019 |
||
90% |
3.409 |
3.684 |
3.903 |
4.128 |
4.354 |
||
80% |
3.979 |
4.273 |
4.496 |
4.722 |
4.962 |
||
50% Median WR |
6.650 |
6.872 |
7.123 |
7.375 |
7.620 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
13.706 Jul 1932 |
13.901 Jul 1932 |
14.095 Jul 1932 |
14.290 Jul 1932 |
14.485 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
5.735 Sep 1987 |
5.991 Apr 1976 |
6.203 Apr 1976 |
6.415 Apr 1976 |
6.627 Apr 1976 |
|
95% |
5.947 |
6.232 |
6.470 |
6.691 |
6.901 |
||
90% |
6.405 |
6.663 |
6.879 |
7.111 |
7.335 |
||
80% |
6.773 |
7.046 |
7.313 |
7.609 |
7.890 |
||
50% Median WR |
7.471 |
7.733 |
7.998 |
8.289 |
8.557 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.854 Aug 1982 |
12.182 Aug 1982 |
12.510 Aug 1982 |
12.838 Aug 1982 |
13.166 Aug 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.73
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.93
|
99.66
|
97.31
|
3.50 % |
99.87
|
0.13 |
99.73
|
98.05
|
94.08
|
88.77
|
|
4.00 % |
97.31
|
95% Succ. 4.248% |
2.69 |
94.96
|
90.32
|
85.34
|
78.82
|
4.50 % |
91.80
|
90% Succ. 4.630% |
8.20 |
85.88
|
81.04
|
75.52
|
69.54
|
5.00 % |
82.04
|
80% Succ. 5.148% |
17.96 |
77.94
|
72.90
|
67.18
|
61.13
|
5.50 % |
74.24
|
25.76 |
70.14
|
64.69
|
58.71
|
54.14
|
|
6.00 % |
67.92
|
32.08 |
62.81
|
56.69
|
52.25
|
49.36
|
|
6.50 % |
61.20
|
38.80 |
54.40
|
49.63
|
47.21
|
44.18
|
|
7.00 % |
52.25
|
50% Succ. 7.142% |
47.75 |
47.81
|
44.79
|
41.49
|
35.91
|
7.50 % |
45.33
|
54.67 |
42.50
|
37.73
|
32.89
|
27.44
|
|
8.00 % |
39.27
|
60.73 |
33.83
|
29.72
|
25.22
|
21.92
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.88
|
99.76
|
97.03
|
3.50 % |
99.76
|
0.24 |
99.52
|
96.79
|
92.98
|
88.47
|
|
4.00 % |
95.24
|
95% Succ. 4.019% |
4.76 |
91.44
|
88.94
|
84.54
|
79.55
|
4.50 % |
87.87
|
80% Succ. 4.962% |
12.13 |
83.59
|
79.67
|
75.86
|
72.18
|
5.00 % |
79.67
|
20.33 |
77.41
|
73.13
|
69.20
|
66.71
|
|
5.50 % |
73.72
|
26.28 |
69.92
|
66.94
|
65.28
|
63.38
|
|
6.00 % |
68.13
|
31.87 |
65.64
|
63.97
|
61.36
|
57.31
|
|
6.50 % |
63.50
|
36.50 |
60.76
|
56.96
|
54.58
|
51.72
|
|
7.00 % |
57.19
|
42.81 |
54.46
|
51.61
|
48.28
|
41.74
|
|
7.50 % |
51.25
|
50% Succ. 7.620% |
48.75 |
48.51
|
43.16
|
37.46
|
30.08
|
8.00 % |
44.59
|
55.41 |
37.57
|
32.70
|
26.75
|
22.47
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.59
|
94.61
|
|
6.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.627% |
0.00 |
97.93
|
93.78
|
91.70
|
87.55
|
7.00 % |
93.78
|
90% Succ. 7.335% |
6.22 |
91.29
|
87.14
|
82.57
|
68.05
|
7.50 % |
87.14
|
80% Succ. 7.890% |
12.86 |
82.99
|
70.54
|
59.75
|
49.38
|
8.00 % |
74.69
|
25.31 |
59.75
|
49.79
|
41.91
|
33.20
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com