Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.21% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.126%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.907 | 8.126 |
9.21 [ 6.53 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.785 Jun 1902 |
2.526 Jun 1902 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
4.242 95% Succ. |
4.618 90% Succ. |
5.110 80% Succ. |
7.094 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.887 |
6.126 |
6.373 |
6.684 |
7.094 | |||||
Average |
6.066 |
6.377 |
6.688 |
7.000 |
7.311 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.706 Jul 1932 |
13.901 Jul 1932 |
14.095 Jul 1932 |
14.290 Jul 1932 |
14.485 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.785 |
3.160 |
3.423 |
3.941 |
5.887 |
75% |
2.526 |
3.450 |
3.725 |
4.262 |
6.126 |
|
50% |
2.906 |
3.728 |
4.001 |
4.539 |
6.373 |
|
25% |
3.071 |
3.992 |
4.306 |
4.834 |
6.684 |
|
0% |
3.237 |
4.242 |
4.618 |
5.110 |
7.094 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.575 Sep 1929 |
2.741 Sep 1929 |
2.906 Sep 1929 |
3.071 Sep 1929 |
3.237 Sep 1929 |
4.019 95% Succ. |
4.354 90% Succ. |
4.962 80% Succ. |
7.620 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.650 |
6.872 |
7.123 |
7.375 |
7.620 | |||||
Average |
6.340 |
6.626 |
6.912 |
7.197 |
7.483 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.706 Jul 1932 |
13.901 Jul 1932 |
14.095 Jul 1932 |
14.290 Jul 1932 |
14.485 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.575 |
3.166 |
3.409 |
3.979 |
6.650 |
75% |
2.741 |
3.348 |
3.684 |
4.273 |
6.872 |
|
50% |
2.906 |
3.592 |
3.903 |
4.496 |
7.123 |
|
25% |
3.071 |
3.786 |
4.128 |
4.722 |
7.375 |
|
0% |
3.237 |
4.019 |
4.354 |
4.962 |
7.620 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.86
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.73
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.93
|
99.66
|
97.28
|
3.50 % |
99.86
|
0.14 |
99.86
|
99.73
|
98.03
|
94.01
|
88.63
|
|
4.00 % |
97.28
|
95% Succ. 4.242% |
2.72 |
97.28
|
94.89
|
90.20
|
85.16
|
78.56
|
4.50 % |
91.70
|
90% Succ. 4.618% |
8.30 |
91.70
|
85.70
|
80.80
|
75.22
|
69.16
|
5.00 % |
81.82
|
80% Succ. 5.110% |
18.18 |
81.82
|
77.67
|
72.57
|
66.78
|
60.65
|
5.50 % |
73.93
|
26.07 |
73.93
|
69.78
|
64.26
|
58.20
|
53.57
|
|
6.00 % |
67.53
|
32.47 |
67.53
|
62.36
|
56.16
|
51.67
|
48.74
|
|
6.50 % |
60.72
|
39.28 |
60.72
|
53.85
|
49.01
|
46.56
|
43.50
|
|
7.00 % |
51.67
|
50% Succ. 7.094% |
48.33 |
51.67
|
47.17
|
44.11
|
40.84
|
35.74
|
7.50 % |
44.66
|
55.34 |
44.66
|
41.80
|
37.51
|
32.74
|
27.57
|
|
8.00 % |
38.80
|
61.20 |
38.80
|
33.70
|
29.88
|
25.53
|
22.19
|
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.237% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.88
|
99.76
|
97.03
|
3.50 % |
99.76
|
0.24 |
99.76
|
99.52
|
96.79
|
92.98
|
88.47
|
|
4.00 % |
95.24
|
95% Succ. 4.019% |
4.76 |
95.24
|
91.44
|
88.94
|
84.54
|
79.55
|
4.50 % |
87.87
|
80% Succ. 4.962% |
12.13 |
87.87
|
83.59
|
79.67
|
75.86
|
72.18
|
5.00 % |
79.67
|
20.33 |
79.67
|
77.41
|
73.13
|
69.20
|
66.71
|
|
5.50 % |
73.72
|
26.28 |
73.72
|
69.92
|
66.94
|
65.28
|
63.38
|
|
6.00 % |
68.13
|
31.87 |
68.13
|
65.64
|
63.97
|
61.36
|
57.31
|
|
6.50 % |
63.50
|
36.50 |
63.50
|
60.76
|
56.96
|
54.58
|
51.72
|
|
7.00 % |
57.19
|
42.81 |
57.19
|
54.46
|
51.61
|
48.39
|
42.81
|
|
7.50 % |
51.25
|
50% Succ. 7.620% |
48.75 |
51.25
|
48.51
|
44.11
|
38.64
|
31.87
|
8.00 % |
45.07
|
54.93 |
45.07
|
38.76
|
34.48
|
28.78
|
24.14
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com