Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.19% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.275%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.920 | 8.275 |
9.19 [ 6.49 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.968 Jul 1901 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
4.958 95% Succ. |
5.357 90% Succ. |
6.057 80% Succ. |
8.678 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.996 |
6.649 |
7.307 |
7.995 |
8.678 | |||||
Average |
6.002 |
6.679 |
7.356 |
8.033 |
8.710 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
14.181 Jun 1949 |
14.632 Jun 1949 |
15.205 Jul 1932 |
15.788 Jul 1932 |
16.370 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.664 |
2.154 |
3.016 |
5.996 |
75% |
0.968 |
2.581 |
3.082 |
3.774 |
6.649 |
|
50% |
2.053 |
3.470 |
3.837 |
4.637 |
7.307 |
|
25% |
2.920 |
4.289 |
4.645 |
5.369 |
7.995 |
|
0% |
3.787 |
4.958 |
5.357 |
6.057 |
8.678 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.319 Sep 1929 |
1.186 Sep 1929 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
4.799 95% Succ. |
5.021 90% Succ. |
5.853 80% Succ. |
8.691 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.127 |
6.831 |
7.448 |
8.078 |
8.691 | |||||
Average |
6.119 |
6.781 |
7.442 |
8.104 |
8.766 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
14.181 Jun 1949 |
14.632 Jun 1949 |
15.205 Jul 1932 |
15.788 Jul 1932 |
16.370 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.319 |
1.534 |
2.026 |
2.873 |
6.127 |
75% |
1.186 |
2.435 |
2.942 |
3.573 |
6.831 |
|
50% |
2.053 |
3.264 |
3.692 |
4.354 |
7.448 |
|
25% |
2.920 |
4.038 |
4.389 |
5.059 |
8.078 |
|
0% |
3.787 |
4.799 |
5.021 |
5.853 |
8.691 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.814 Apr 2000 |
2.522 Apr 2000 |
3.230 Apr 2000 |
3.937 Apr 2000 |
4.645 Apr 2000 |
5.098 95% Succ. |
5.674 90% Succ. |
6.990 80% Succ. |
9.672 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.593 |
7.313 |
8.108 |
8.853 |
9.672 | |||||
Average |
6.835 |
7.436 |
8.037 |
8.638 |
9.238 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.368 Aug 1982 |
13.916 Aug 1982 |
14.465 Aug 1982 |
15.013 Aug 1982 |
15.562 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.814 |
2.616 |
3.476 |
4.614 |
6.593 |
75% |
2.522 |
3.197 |
3.982 |
5.269 |
7.313 |
|
50% |
3.230 |
3.827 |
4.478 |
5.815 |
8.108 |
|
25% |
3.937 |
4.461 |
5.048 |
6.305 |
8.853 |
|
0% |
4.645 |
5.098 |
5.674 |
6.990 |
9.672 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.30
|
91.88
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.69
|
95.53
|
85.59
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.94
|
98.68
|
91.06
|
80.11
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.75
|
94.71
|
83.20
|
76.21
|
4.00 % |
99.87
|
0.13 |
99.87
|
97.42
|
88.04
|
77.91
|
72.18
|
|
4.50 % |
99.24
|
95% Succ. 4.958% |
0.76 |
99.24
|
91.94
|
81.25
|
73.57
|
65.70
|
5.00 % |
94.34
|
90% Succ. 5.357% |
5.66 |
94.34
|
84.39
|
75.58
|
67.28
|
61.86
|
5.50 % |
88.17
|
11.83 |
88.17
|
78.60
|
68.28
|
63.25
|
57.71
|
|
6.00 % |
80.81
|
80% Succ. 6.057% |
19.19 |
80.81
|
72.06
|
65.51
|
59.22
|
49.84
|
6.50 % |
74.26
|
25.74 |
74.26
|
66.90
|
60.73
|
51.98
|
42.42
|
|
7.00 % |
70.30
|
29.70 |
70.30
|
62.93
|
54.25
|
45.56
|
35.93
|
|
7.50 % |
64.63
|
35.37 |
64.63
|
56.45
|
47.70
|
37.38
|
30.59
|
|
8.00 % |
59.22
|
40.78 |
59.22
|
49.91
|
40.15
|
32.10
|
26.18
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
90.53
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.58
|
94.38
|
83.87
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.90
|
98.23
|
89.07
|
78.04
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
92.51
|
81.06
|
74.19
|
4.00 % |
99.79
|
0.21 |
99.79
|
95.84
|
85.02
|
75.03
|
69.72
|
|
4.50 % |
98.75
|
95% Succ. 4.799% |
1.25 |
98.75
|
88.03
|
78.04
|
71.38
|
64.41
|
5.00 % |
90.63
|
90% Succ. 5.021% |
9.37 |
90.63
|
80.96
|
72.53
|
66.91
|
60.98
|
5.50 % |
83.25
|
80% Succ. 5.853% |
16.75 |
83.25
|
75.96
|
68.16
|
62.64
|
57.44
|
6.00 % |
78.56
|
21.44 |
78.56
|
70.97
|
65.45
|
59.00
|
51.93
|
|
6.50 % |
73.36
|
26.64 |
73.36
|
66.60
|
60.35
|
52.86
|
44.85
|
|
7.00 % |
69.41
|
30.59 |
69.41
|
62.64
|
54.73
|
47.97
|
38.81
|
|
7.50 % |
63.16
|
36.84 |
63.16
|
56.50
|
49.22
|
40.06
|
33.30
|
|
8.00 % |
58.58
|
41.42 |
58.58
|
50.68
|
42.87
|
35.07
|
29.14
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.68
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
92.80
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
93.63
|
89.47
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
93.63
|
89.47
|
85.32
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.645% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.46
|
89.75
|
85.60
|
81.44
|
5.00 % |
96.12
|
95% Succ. 5.098% |
3.88 |
96.12
|
90.86
|
86.70
|
81.44
|
77.56
|
5.50 % |
91.41
|
90% Succ. 5.674% |
8.59 |
91.41
|
87.26
|
81.72
|
78.39
|
74.79
|
6.00 % |
87.26
|
12.74 |
87.26
|
82.27
|
78.95
|
76.73
|
66.48
|
|
6.50 % |
82.83
|
80% Succ. 6.990% |
17.17 |
82.83
|
79.50
|
76.73
|
68.70
|
51.52
|
7.00 % |
79.78
|
20.22 |
79.78
|
76.18
|
69.81
|
60.39
|
43.49
|
|
7.50 % |
75.90
|
24.10 |
75.90
|
70.91
|
63.71
|
45.98
|
35.73
|
|
8.00 % |
71.19
|
28.81 |
71.19
|
63.99
|
53.19
|
39.61
|
30.75
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com