Warren Buffett Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.787% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 99.87% of cases. In the 72.15% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.33% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.862%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 6.431 8.862 9.33
[ 6.68 ] 		-46.52
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1901 		0.968
Jul 1901 		2.053
Sep 1929 		2.920
Sep 1929 		3.787
Sep 1929 		4.958
95% Succ. 		5.357
90% Succ. 		6.057
80% Succ. 		8.678
50% Succ.
Median 5.996
 6.649
 7.307
 7.995
 8.678
Average 6.002
 6.679
 7.356
 8.033
 8.710
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		14.181
Jun 1949 		14.632
Jun 1949 		15.205
Jul 1932 		15.788
Jul 1932 		16.370
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.664
 2.154
 3.016
 5.996
75% 0.968
 2.581
 3.082
 3.774
 6.649
50% 2.053
 3.470
 3.837
 4.637
 7.307
25% 2.920
 4.289
 4.645
 5.369
 7.995
0% 3.787
 4.958
 5.357
 6.057
 8.678
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.319
Sep 1929 		1.186
Sep 1929 		2.053
Sep 1929 		2.920
Sep 1929 		3.787
Sep 1929 		4.799
95% Succ. 		5.021
90% Succ. 		5.853
80% Succ. 		8.724
50% Succ.
Median 6.133
 6.839
 7.464
 8.097
 8.724
Average 6.121
 6.783
 7.446
 8.108
 8.770
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		14.181
Jun 1949 		14.632
Jun 1949 		15.205
Jul 1932 		15.788
Jul 1932 		16.370
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.319
 1.534
 2.026
 2.873
 6.133
75% 1.186
 2.435
 2.942
 3.573
 6.839
50% 2.053
 3.264
 3.692
 4.354
 7.464
25% 2.920
 4.038
 4.389
 5.059
 8.097
0% 3.787
 4.799
 5.021
 5.853
 8.724
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.814
Apr 2000 		2.522
Apr 2000 		3.230
Apr 2000 		3.937
Apr 2000 		4.645
Apr 2000 		5.092
95% Succ. 		5.615
90% Succ. 		6.793
80% Succ. 		9.672
50% Succ.
Median 6.593
 7.313
 8.108
 8.853
 9.672
Average 6.818
 7.418
 8.018
 8.619
 9.219
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		13.368
Aug 1982 		13.916
Aug 1982 		14.465
Aug 1982 		15.013
Aug 1982 		15.562
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.814
 2.616
 3.348
 4.569
 6.593
75% 2.522
 3.197
 3.928
 5.200
 7.313
50% 3.230
 3.827
 4.465
 5.752
 8.108
25% 3.937
 4.461
 5.041
 6.300
 8.853
0% 4.645
 5.092
 5.615
 6.793
 9.672
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.30
91.87
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.68
95.53
85.57
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.94
98.68
91.05
80.09
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.787% 		0.00
100.00
99.75
94.71
83.18
76.18
4.00 %
99.87
0.13
99.87
97.42
88.03
77.88
72.15
4.50 %
99.24
95% Succ.
4.958% 		0.76
99.24
91.93
81.22
73.53
65.66
5.00 %
94.33
90% Succ.
5.357% 		5.67
94.33
84.37
75.55
67.23
61.81
5.50 %
88.15
11.85
88.15
78.58
68.24
63.20
57.66
6.00 %
80.78
80% Succ.
6.057% 		19.22
80.78
72.02
65.47
59.17
49.84
6.50 %
74.23
25.77
74.23
66.86
60.68
51.92
42.41
7.00 %
70.26
29.74
70.26
62.89
54.19
45.56
35.98
7.50 %
64.59
35.41
64.59
56.40
47.70
37.43
30.62
8.00 %
59.17
40.83
59.17
49.91
40.20
32.14
26.21
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
90.53
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
94.38
83.87
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.90
98.23
89.07
78.04
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.787% 		0.00
100.00
99.58
92.51
81.06
74.19
4.00 %
99.79
0.21
99.79
95.84
85.02
75.03
69.72
4.50 %
98.75
95% Succ.
4.799% 		1.25
98.75
88.03
78.04
71.38
64.41
5.00 %
90.63
90% Succ.
5.021% 		9.37
90.63
80.96
72.53
66.91
60.98
5.50 %
83.25
80% Succ.
5.853% 		16.75
83.25
75.96
68.16
62.64
57.44
6.00 %
78.56
21.44
78.56
70.97
65.45
59.00
52.03
6.50 %
73.36
26.64
73.36
66.60
60.35
52.86
44.95
7.00 %
69.41
30.59
69.41
62.64
54.73
48.07
39.02
7.50 %
63.16
36.84
63.16
56.50
49.32
40.27
33.30
8.00 %
58.58
41.42
58.58
50.78
43.08
35.17
29.14
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.68
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.89
92.80
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
93.63
88.92
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
93.63
88.92
84.76
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.645% 		0.00
100.00
94.46
89.20
85.04
80.89
5.00 %
96.12
95% Succ.
5.092% 		3.88
96.12
90.30
86.15
80.89
77.01
5.50 %
90.86
90% Succ.
5.615% 		9.14
90.86
86.70
81.16
77.84
74.24
6.00 %
86.70
13.30
86.70
81.72
78.39
76.18
66.20
6.50 %
82.27
80% Succ.
6.793% 		17.73
82.27
78.95
76.18
68.14
51.25
7.00 %
79.22
20.78
79.22
75.62
69.25
60.11
43.49
7.50 %
75.35
24.65
75.35
70.36
63.43
45.98
35.73
8.00 %
70.64
29.36
70.64
63.71
53.19
39.61
30.75
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Warren Buffett Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio

For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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