Last Update: 30 November 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.787% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 99.87% of cases. In the 72.31% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Warren Buffett Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: November 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.93% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.52%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.466%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Dec 2003 |
30 Nov 2023 | 5.214 | 7.466 |
8.93 [ 6.18 ] |
-46.52 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Warren Buffett Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Warren Buffett Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.968 Jul 1901 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
1.664 |
2.581 |
3.470 |
4.289 |
4.958 |
||
|
90% |
2.155 |
3.083 |
3.839 |
4.646 |
5.358 |
||
|
80% |
3.043 |
3.801 |
4.646 |
5.380 |
6.060 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
5.980 |
6.622 |
7.298 |
7.977 |
8.669 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
14.181 Jun 1949 |
14.632 Jun 1949 |
15.205 Jul 1932 |
15.788 Jul 1932 |
16.370 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.319 Sep 1929 |
1.186 Sep 1929 |
2.053 Sep 1929 |
2.920 Sep 1929 |
3.787 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
1.534 |
2.435 |
3.264 |
4.038 |
4.799 |
||
|
90% |
2.026 |
2.942 |
3.692 |
4.389 |
5.021 |
||
|
80% |
2.873 |
3.573 |
4.354 |
5.059 |
5.853 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.071 |
6.795 |
7.328 |
8.000 |
8.660 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
14.181 Jun 1949 |
14.632 Jun 1949 |
15.205 Jul 1932 |
15.788 Jul 1932 |
16.370 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.814 Apr 2000 |
2.522 Apr 2000 |
3.230 Apr 2000 |
3.937 Apr 2000 |
4.645 Apr 2000 |
|
|
95% |
2.616 |
3.197 |
3.827 |
4.461 |
5.098 |
||
|
90% |
3.713 |
4.275 |
4.759 |
5.288 |
5.853 |
||
|
80% |
4.943 |
5.615 |
6.203 |
6.837 |
7.382 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.593 |
7.313 |
8.108 |
8.853 |
9.672 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
13.368 Aug 1982 |
13.916 Aug 1982 |
14.465 Aug 1982 |
15.013 Aug 1982 |
15.562 Aug 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.31
|
91.92
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.69
|
95.55
|
85.65
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.94
|
98.68
|
91.10
|
80.20
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
0.00 |
99.75
|
94.74
|
83.27
|
76.32
|
| 4.00 % |
99.87
|
0.13 |
97.43
|
88.10
|
78.01
|
72.31
|
|
| 4.50 % |
99.25
|
95% Succ. 4.958% |
0.75 |
91.98
|
81.33
|
73.68
|
65.85
|
| 5.00 % |
94.36
|
90% Succ. 5.358% |
5.64 |
84.46
|
75.69
|
67.42
|
62.03
|
| 5.50 % |
88.22
|
11.78 |
78.70
|
68.42
|
63.41
|
57.64
|
|
| 6.00 % |
80.89
|
80% Succ. 6.060% |
19.11 |
72.18
|
65.66
|
59.27
|
49.62
|
| 6.50 % |
74.37
|
25.63 |
67.04
|
60.78
|
51.75
|
42.23
|
|
| 7.00 % |
70.43
|
29.57 |
62.97
|
54.01
|
45.36
|
35.78
|
|
| 7.50 % |
64.72
|
35.28 |
56.20
|
47.49
|
37.22
|
30.45
|
|
| 8.00 % |
58.96
|
41.04 |
49.69
|
39.97
|
31.95
|
26.07
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
90.53
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
94.38
|
83.87
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.90
|
98.23
|
89.07
|
78.04
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.787% |
0.00 |
99.58
|
92.51
|
81.06
|
74.19
|
| 4.00 % |
99.79
|
0.21 |
95.84
|
85.02
|
75.03
|
69.72
|
|
| 4.50 % |
98.75
|
95% Succ. 4.799% |
1.25 |
88.03
|
78.04
|
71.38
|
64.41
|
| 5.00 % |
90.63
|
90% Succ. 5.021% |
9.37 |
80.96
|
72.53
|
66.91
|
60.98
|
| 5.50 % |
83.25
|
80% Succ. 5.853% |
16.75 |
75.96
|
68.16
|
62.64
|
57.02
|
| 6.00 % |
78.56
|
21.44 |
70.97
|
65.45
|
58.79
|
51.20
|
|
| 6.50 % |
73.36
|
26.64 |
66.60
|
60.15
|
52.13
|
44.12
|
|
| 7.00 % |
69.41
|
30.59 |
62.43
|
54.01
|
47.24
|
38.09
|
|
| 7.50 % |
63.06
|
36.94 |
55.78
|
48.49
|
39.33
|
32.57
|
|
| 8.00 % |
57.86
|
42.14 |
49.95
|
42.14
|
34.34
|
28.51
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.68
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
92.80
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
93.63
|
90.58
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.72
|
93.63
|
90.58
|
87.26
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.645% |
0.00 |
94.46
|
90.86
|
87.53
|
83.38
|
| 5.00 % |
96.12
|
95% Succ. 5.098% |
3.88 |
91.97
|
88.64
|
83.38
|
79.50
|
| 5.50 % |
92.80
|
90% Succ. 5.853% |
7.20 |
89.20
|
83.66
|
80.33
|
75.62
|
| 6.00 % |
89.20
|
10.80 |
84.21
|
80.89
|
78.12
|
66.48
|
|
| 6.50 % |
84.76
|
15.24 |
81.44
|
78.12
|
68.70
|
51.52
|
|
| 7.00 % |
81.72
|
80% Succ. 7.382% |
18.28 |
77.56
|
69.81
|
60.39
|
43.49
|
| 7.50 % |
77.56
|
22.44 |
70.91
|
63.71
|
45.98
|
35.73
|
|
| 8.00 % |
71.19
|
28.81 |
63.99
|
53.19
|
39.61
|
30.75
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Warren Buffett Portfolio
For the Warren Buffett Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com