Last Update: 31 March 2025
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.861% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 99.94% of cases. In the 73.57% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: March 2025), the portfolio has returned 9.51% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.68%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.85%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2025 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2005 |
31 Mar 2025 | 5.740 | 7.850 |
9.51 [ 6.79 ] |
-46.68 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2025)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.859 Jul 1901 |
2.241 Sep 1929 |
3.051 Sep 1929 |
3.861 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
1.931 |
2.831 |
3.677 |
4.517 |
5.217 |
||
|
90% |
2.469 |
3.281 |
4.048 |
4.788 |
5.544 |
||
|
80% |
3.264 |
4.071 |
4.846 |
5.516 |
6.163 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.068 |
6.707 |
7.372 |
8.023 |
8.722 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
15.610 Jul 1932 |
16.191 Jul 1932 |
16.772 Jul 1932 |
17.352 Jul 1932 |
17.933 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.622 Sep 1929 |
1.431 Sep 1929 |
2.241 Sep 1929 |
3.051 Sep 1929 |
3.861 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
2.061 |
2.860 |
3.654 |
4.421 |
5.066 |
||
|
90% |
2.589 |
3.397 |
4.048 |
4.722 |
5.394 |
||
|
80% |
3.238 |
3.970 |
4.737 |
5.478 |
6.179 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.245 |
6.827 |
7.499 |
8.080 |
8.757 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
15.610 Jul 1932 |
16.191 Jul 1932 |
16.772 Jul 1932 |
17.352 Jul 1932 |
17.933 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.170 Apr 2000 |
2.860 Apr 2000 |
3.549 Apr 2000 |
4.239 Apr 2000 |
4.928 Apr 2000 |
|
|
95% |
3.157 |
3.747 |
4.367 |
5.004 |
5.607 |
||
|
90% |
4.171 |
4.779 |
5.361 |
5.817 |
6.341 |
||
|
80% |
5.470 |
6.089 |
6.665 |
7.184 |
7.805 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.827 |
7.529 |
8.168 |
8.881 |
9.598 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
12.787 Aug 1982 |
13.368 Aug 1982 |
13.949 Aug 1982 |
14.531 Aug 1982 |
15.112 Aug 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.95
|
94.54
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.81
|
98.01
|
89.64
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.13
|
93.05
|
83.44
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.861% |
0.00 |
99.75
|
97.52
|
87.34
|
77.73
|
| 4.00 % |
99.94
|
0.06 |
99.07
|
90.63
|
80.58
|
73.57
|
|
| 4.50 % |
99.69
|
0.31 |
95.41
|
84.18
|
74.26
|
67.87
|
|
| 5.00 % |
97.58
|
95% Succ. 5.217% |
2.42 |
86.91
|
77.30
|
69.42
|
63.77
|
| 5.50 % |
90.69
|
90% Succ. 5.544% |
9.31 |
80.33
|
70.35
|
65.51
|
58.31
|
| 6.00 % |
82.07
|
80% Succ. 6.163% |
17.93 |
74.26
|
67.12
|
60.61
|
50.81
|
| 6.50 % |
76.18
|
23.82 |
68.80
|
62.66
|
53.04
|
43.80
|
|
| 7.00 % |
72.02
|
27.98 |
64.52
|
55.58
|
45.84
|
35.17
|
|
| 7.50 % |
67.62
|
32.38 |
58.37
|
48.20
|
37.59
|
30.09
|
|
| 8.00 % |
60.30
|
39.70 |
50.74
|
40.20
|
31.14
|
24.88
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.48
|
95.73
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.79
|
98.86
|
91.36
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.17
|
93.34
|
83.98
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.861% |
0.00 |
99.58
|
97.61
|
88.35
|
76.69
|
| 4.00 % |
99.90
|
0.10 |
98.54
|
90.74
|
79.71
|
72.94
|
|
| 4.50 % |
99.48
|
0.52 |
94.17
|
83.45
|
73.99
|
68.57
|
|
| 5.00 % |
96.05
|
95% Succ. 5.066% |
3.95 |
85.74
|
76.90
|
70.55
|
64.00
|
| 5.50 % |
87.72
|
12.28 |
79.50
|
71.80
|
66.18
|
59.21
|
|
| 6.00 % |
81.27
|
80% Succ. 6.179% |
18.73 |
74.71
|
67.64
|
61.19
|
53.80
|
| 6.50 % |
76.48
|
23.52 |
69.72
|
63.58
|
54.84
|
46.72
|
|
| 7.00 % |
72.01
|
27.99 |
65.35
|
56.61
|
48.39
|
37.57
|
|
| 7.50 % |
67.95
|
32.05 |
59.52
|
49.95
|
40.17
|
32.36
|
|
| 8.00 % |
60.56
|
39.44 |
51.51
|
42.56
|
32.88
|
27.37
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
98.06
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
92.80
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.61
|
93.63
|
90.58
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.928% |
0.00 |
99.17
|
94.18
|
90.58
|
87.53
|
| 5.00 % |
99.72
|
0.28 |
95.01
|
91.14
|
87.53
|
85.32
|
|
| 5.50 % |
95.84
|
95% Succ. 5.607% |
4.16 |
91.41
|
88.09
|
85.04
|
79.78
|
| 6.00 % |
91.97
|
90% Succ. 6.341% |
8.03 |
89.20
|
84.76
|
80.89
|
71.75
|
| 6.50 % |
89.20
|
10.80 |
85.04
|
81.44
|
74.52
|
59.28
|
|
| 7.00 % |
85.32
|
14.68 |
82.27
|
75.62
|
63.71
|
44.32
|
|
| 7.50 % |
82.55
|
80% Succ. 7.805% |
17.45 |
77.01
|
65.65
|
50.42
|
36.84
|
| 8.00 % |
76.73
|
23.27 |
67.87
|
56.79
|
39.34
|
29.64
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
