US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.861% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 99.94% of cases. In the 73.19% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.54% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -46.68%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.878%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 6.510 8.878 9.54
[ 6.83 ] 		-46.68
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1901 		0.859
Jul 1901 		2.241
Sep 1929 		3.051
Sep 1929 		3.861
Sep 1929 		5.211
95% Succ. 		5.525
90% Succ. 		6.131
80% Succ. 		8.761
50% Succ.
Median 6.089
 6.748
 7.420
 8.080
 8.761
Average 6.042
 6.710
 7.378
 8.046
 8.715
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		15.610
Jul 1932 		16.191
Jul 1932 		16.772
Jul 1932 		17.352
Jul 1932 		17.933
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.919
 2.454
 3.219
 6.089
75% 0.859
 2.831
 3.253
 4.019
 6.748
50% 2.241
 3.670
 4.046
 4.824
 7.420
25% 3.051
 4.516
 4.779
 5.501
 8.080
0% 3.861
 5.211
 5.525
 6.131
 8.761
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.622
Sep 1929 		1.431
Sep 1929 		2.241
Sep 1929 		3.051
Sep 1929 		3.861
Sep 1929 		5.066
95% Succ. 		5.394
90% Succ. 		6.179
80% Succ. 		8.878
50% Succ.
Median 6.411
 7.059
 7.657
 8.298
 8.878
Average 6.282
 6.922
 7.562
 8.201
 8.841
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		15.610
Jul 1932 		16.191
Jul 1932 		16.772
Jul 1932 		17.352
Jul 1932 		17.933
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.622
 2.061
 2.589
 3.238
 6.411
75% 1.431
 2.860
 3.397
 3.970
 7.059
50% 2.241
 3.654
 4.048
 4.737
 7.657
25% 3.051
 4.421
 4.722
 5.478
 8.298
0% 3.861
 5.066
 5.394
 6.179
 8.878
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.170
Apr 2000 		2.860
Apr 2000 		3.549
Apr 2000 		4.239
Apr 2000 		4.928
Apr 2000 		5.607
95% Succ. 		6.020
90% Succ. 		7.450
80% Succ. 		9.619
50% Succ.
Median 6.855
 7.573
 8.222
 8.943
 9.619
Average 6.943
 7.530
 8.117
 8.704
 9.290
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		12.787
Aug 1982 		13.368
Aug 1982 		13.949
Aug 1982 		14.531
Aug 1982 		15.112
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.170
 3.157
 3.891
 5.101
 6.855
75% 2.860
 3.747
 4.390
 5.755
 7.573
50% 3.549
 4.367
 4.901
 6.410
 8.222
25% 4.239
 5.004
 5.498
 6.930
 8.943
0% 4.928
 5.607
 6.020
 7.450
 9.619
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.93
94.46
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.81
97.99
89.49
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.12
92.95
83.20
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.861% 		0.00
100.00
99.75
97.48
87.16
77.41
4.00 %
99.94
0.06
99.94
99.06
90.50
80.30
73.19
4.50 %
99.69
0.31
99.69
95.34
83.95
73.88
67.40
5.00 %
97.55
95% Succ.
5.211% 		2.45
97.55
86.72
76.97
68.97
63.25
5.50 %
90.56
90% Succ.
5.525% 		9.44
90.56
80.05
69.92
65.01
58.02
6.00 %
81.81
80% Succ.
6.131% 		18.19
81.81
73.88
66.65
60.29
51.23
6.50 %
75.83
24.17
75.83
68.34
62.30
53.37
44.43
7.00 %
71.62
28.38
71.62
64.19
55.95
46.51
35.68
7.50 %
67.28
32.72
67.28
58.72
48.90
38.14
30.52
8.00 %
60.67
39.33
60.67
51.48
40.78
31.59
25.24
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.48
95.73
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
98.86
91.36
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.17
93.34
83.98
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.861% 		0.00
100.00
99.58
97.61
88.35
76.69
4.00 %
99.90
0.10
99.90
98.54
90.74
79.71
72.94
4.50 %
99.48
0.52
99.48
94.17
83.45
73.99
68.57
5.00 %
96.05
95% Succ.
5.066% 		3.95
96.05
85.74
76.90
70.55
64.00
5.50 %
87.72
12.28
87.72
79.50
71.80
66.18
59.73
6.00 %
81.27
80% Succ.
6.179% 		18.73
81.27
74.71
67.64
61.60
55.67
6.50 %
76.48
23.52
76.48
69.72
63.89
56.50
49.12
7.00 %
72.01
27.99
72.01
65.66
58.27
50.78
39.65
7.50 %
68.16
31.84
68.16
61.08
52.34
42.35
34.24
8.00 %
62.12
37.88
62.12
53.90
44.95
34.86
28.51
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
98.06
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
92.80
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.61
93.63
88.92
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.928% 		0.00
100.00
99.17
94.18
88.92
85.60
5.00 %
99.72
0.28
99.72
95.01
89.47
85.60
81.99
5.50 %
95.84
95% Succ.
5.607% 		4.16
95.84
89.75
86.15
81.72
77.56
6.00 %
90.03
90% Succ.
6.020% 		9.97
90.03
87.26
81.44
78.39
72.58
6.50 %
87.26
12.74
87.26
81.72
78.67
74.79
61.50
7.00 %
82.27
80% Succ.
7.450% 		17.73
82.27
79.50
76.18
65.93
45.98
7.50 %
79.50
20.50
79.50
77.29
67.87
52.08
38.23
8.00 %
77.01
22.99
77.01
70.08
58.45
40.72
30.19
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 90/10 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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