Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 10.01% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.23%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.413%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 7.307 | 7.413 |
10.01 [ 6.25 ] |
-42.23 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.144 Sep 1929 |
3.159 Sep 1929 |
3.174 Sep 1929 |
3.189 Sep 1929 |
3.205 Sep 1929 |
3.770 95% Succ. |
3.953 90% Succ. |
4.417 80% Succ. |
5.528 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.405 |
5.443 |
5.477 |
5.506 |
5.528 | |||||
Average |
5.742 |
5.769 |
5.796 |
5.823 |
5.850 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.110 Jul 1932 |
12.132 Jul 1932 |
12.153 Jul 1932 |
12.174 Jul 1932 |
12.196 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.144 |
3.667 |
3.841 |
4.321 |
5.405 |
75% |
3.159 |
3.690 |
3.862 |
4.342 |
5.443 |
|
50% |
3.174 |
3.712 |
3.892 |
4.370 |
5.477 |
|
25% |
3.189 |
3.740 |
3.927 |
4.393 |
5.506 |
|
0% |
3.205 |
3.770 |
3.953 |
4.417 |
5.528 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.144 Sep 1929 |
3.159 Sep 1929 |
3.174 Sep 1929 |
3.189 Sep 1929 |
3.205 Sep 1929 |
4.089 95% Succ. |
4.431 90% Succ. |
5.182 80% Succ. |
6.541 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.449 |
6.471 |
6.493 |
6.515 |
6.541 | |||||
Average |
6.327 |
6.349 |
6.372 |
6.395 |
6.417 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.110 Jul 1932 |
12.132 Jul 1932 |
12.153 Jul 1932 |
12.174 Jul 1932 |
12.196 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.144 |
4.006 |
4.364 |
5.075 |
6.449 |
75% |
3.159 |
4.027 |
4.384 |
5.112 |
6.471 |
|
50% |
3.174 |
4.048 |
4.402 |
5.139 |
6.493 |
|
25% |
3.189 |
4.069 |
4.416 |
5.164 |
6.515 |
|
0% |
3.205 |
4.089 |
4.431 |
5.182 |
6.541 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.205% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.50 % |
99.29
|
95% Succ. 3.770% |
0.71 |
99.29
|
98.89
|
98.79
|
98.48
|
97.98
|
4.00 % |
89.18
|
80% Succ. 4.417% |
10.82 |
89.18
|
88.47
|
87.87
|
87.56
|
87.06
|
4.50 % |
77.55
|
22.45 |
77.55
|
77.25
|
76.74
|
75.83
|
75.13
|
|
5.00 % |
63.20
|
36.80 |
63.20
|
62.39
|
61.78
|
61.27
|
60.16
|
|
5.50 % |
50.46
|
50% Succ. 5.528% |
49.54 |
50.46
|
50.15
|
49.04
|
48.63
|
48.03
|
6.00 % |
41.46
|
58.54 |
41.46
|
40.85
|
40.24
|
39.53
|
38.93
|
|
6.50 % |
34.88
|
65.12 |
34.88
|
34.68
|
34.38
|
33.97
|
33.47
|
|
7.00 % |
27.91
|
72.09 |
27.91
|
27.50
|
27.10
|
26.59
|
25.78
|
|
7.50 % |
16.89
|
83.11 |
16.89
|
15.98
|
15.57
|
15.17
|
14.46
|
|
8.00 % |
9.61
|
90.39 |
9.61
|
9.30
|
8.90
|
8.49
|
8.09
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.205% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.50 % |
99.17
|
0.83 |
99.17
|
99.17
|
99.17
|
99.17
|
99.17
|
|
4.00 % |
95.84
|
95% Succ. 4.089% |
4.16 |
95.84
|
95.57
|
95.01
|
95.01
|
95.01
|
4.50 % |
89.20
|
10.80 |
89.20
|
89.20
|
88.92
|
88.37
|
88.37
|
|
5.00 % |
83.93
|
80% Succ. 5.182% |
16.07 |
83.93
|
83.38
|
83.38
|
83.10
|
82.27
|
5.50 % |
73.13
|
26.87 |
73.13
|
72.85
|
71.19
|
70.64
|
70.08
|
|
6.00 % |
61.77
|
38.23 |
61.77
|
60.94
|
60.39
|
59.28
|
58.45
|
|
6.50 % |
51.25
|
50% Succ. 6.541% |
48.75 |
51.25
|
50.69
|
49.86
|
49.03
|
47.92
|
7.00 % |
37.12
|
62.88 |
37.12
|
36.84
|
36.01
|
35.46
|
34.07
|
|
7.50 % |
21.61
|
78.39 |
21.61
|
21.61
|
21.33
|
21.05
|
21.05
|
|
8.00 % |
13.02
|
86.98 |
13.02
|
12.74
|
12.19
|
11.36
|
11.08
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com